Cereals: wheat and meslin, durum wheat, seed

In 2024, cereals: wheat and meslin, durum wheat, seed trade exhibited significant decline, with global flows reaching $220,408,568 and a three-year compound annual growth rate of +0.6% (five-year: -12.1%). The all-time peak of $906,289,790 was recorded in 2008; the current level is 76% below that high-water mark.

Over the 30-year observation window (1995–2024), 48% of years recorded positive growth, indicating significant cyclicality with frequent contractions. Trend momentum is steady (+1.8% acceleration).

The supply side is diversified (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index 0.087). The three largest exporters — Russia ($81.3M), Pakistan ($71.9M), and Ukraine ($71.5M) — collectively dominate supply flows. The leading exporter has grown at +71.5% over the last three years.

On the demand side, importer concentration is diversified (HHI 0.076). The three largest import markets are Sudan ($76.1M), Yemen ($38.5M), and Germany ($28.9M). The largest importing market sources from 6 different supplying countries.

The dominant trade corridor is Russia → Sudan at $41.2M, representing 54.2% of the importer's total demand.

The volatility score for cereals: wheat and meslin, durum wheat, seed is 7 out of 100, classified as low. Trade flows are relatively stable compared to other HS6 products, suggesting mature supply chains and predictable demand.

For market entrants, contracting demand signals caution before committing resources. The diversified supply landscape means many competitors but also multiple entry points and buyer relationships to target.

Data confidence is rated "High" based on reporting coverage and consistency across OECD member and partner countries.