Vegetable oils: low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, crude

In 2024, vegetable oils: low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, crude trade exhibited significant decline, with global flows reaching $6,206,297,134 and a three-year compound annual growth rate of +0.3% (five-year: +13.1%). The all-time peak of $7,016,104,792 was recorded in 2023; the current level is 12% below that high-water mark.

Over the 30-year observation window (1995–2024), 69% of years recorded positive growth, indicating a predominantly expanding market. Trend momentum is decelerating (-4.2% acceleration).

The supply side is diversified (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index 0.128). The three largest exporters — Canada ($1.7B), Russia ($1.1B), and Belarus ($630.9M) — collectively dominate supply flows. The leading exporter has grown at -1.4% over the last three years.

On the demand side, importer concentration is moderately concentrated (HHI 0.156). The three largest import markets are China ($1.7B), United States ($1.5B), and Netherlands ($543.8M). The largest importing market sources from 18 different supplying countries.

Estimated substitution elasticity: -16.98. Buyers are highly price-sensitive and can switch between suppliers relatively easily.

The dominant trade corridor is Canada → United States at $1.5B, representing 99.5% of the importer's total demand.

The volatility score for vegetable oils: low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, crude is 5 out of 100, classified as low. Trade flows are relatively stable compared to other HS6 products, suggesting mature supply chains and predictable demand.

For market entrants, contracting demand signals caution before committing resources. The diversified supply landscape means many competitors but also multiple entry points and buyer relationships to target.

Data confidence is rated "High" based on reporting coverage and consistency across OECD member and partner countries.