Vegetable oils: palm kernel or babassu oil and their fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified

In 2024, vegetable oils: palm kernel or babassu oil and their fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified trade exhibited strong growth, with global flows reaching $2,427,807,144 and a three-year compound annual growth rate of -3.8% (five-year: +12.2%). The all-time peak of $3,148,404,912 was recorded in 2022; the current level is 23% below that high-water mark.

Over the 30-year observation window (1995–2024), 66% of years recorded positive growth, indicating a predominantly expanding market. Trend momentum is decelerating (-6.2% acceleration).

The World Trade Flows Characterization classifies vegetable oils: palm kernel or babassu oil and their fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified as "One-way trade" in the medium price range price segment, providing additional context for market positioning and competitive dynamics.

The supply side is concentrated (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index 0.488). The three largest exporters — Indonesia ($1.6B), Malaysia ($582.5M), and Netherlands ($56.7M) — collectively dominate supply flows. The leading exporter has grown at -5.3% over the last three years.

On the demand side, importer concentration is diversified (HHI 0.126). The three largest import markets are China ($685.5M), United States ($351.2M), and Brazil ($273.7M). The largest importing market sources from 19 different supplying countries.

Estimated substitution elasticity: -13.46. Buyers are highly price-sensitive and can switch between suppliers relatively easily.

The dominant trade corridor is Indonesia → China at $496.5M, representing 72.4% of the importer's total demand.

The volatility score for vegetable oils: palm kernel or babassu oil and their fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified is 17 out of 100, classified as low. Trade flows are relatively stable compared to other HS6 products, suggesting mature supply chains and predictable demand.

For market entrants, strong demand tailwinds create a favourable entry environment. The concentrated supply structure suggests high barriers but also potential opportunity if dominant suppliers face disruption or capacity constraints.

Data confidence is rated "High" based on reporting coverage and consistency across OECD member and partner countries.