Vegetable oils: palm oil and its fractions, crude, not chemically modified

In 2024, vegetable oils: palm oil and its fractions, crude, not chemically modified trade exhibited significant decline, with global flows reaching $9,701,764,654 and a three-year compound annual growth rate of -8.5% (five-year: +3.8%). The all-time peak of $14,850,683,069 was recorded in 2011; the current level is 35% below that high-water mark.

Over the 30-year observation window (1995–2024), 59% of years recorded positive growth, indicating a mildly upward trajectory with periodic contractions. Trend momentum is decelerating (-7.9% acceleration).

The World Trade Flows Characterization classifies vegetable oils: palm oil and its fractions, crude, not chemically modified as "One-way trade" in the medium price range price segment, providing additional context for market positioning and competitive dynamics.

The supply side is moderately concentrated (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index 0.224). The three largest exporters — Malaysia ($3.6B), Indonesia ($2.9B), and Thailand ($755.6M) — collectively dominate supply flows. The leading exporter has grown at -11.2% over the last three years.

On the demand side, importer concentration is concentrated (HHI 0.370). The three largest import markets are India ($5.7B), Netherlands ($1.1B), and Kenya ($566.8M). The largest importing market sources from 10 different supplying countries.

Estimated substitution elasticity: -11.00. Buyers are highly price-sensitive and can switch between suppliers relatively easily.

The dominant trade corridor is Indonesia → India at $2.4B, representing 42.5% of the importer's total demand.

The volatility score for vegetable oils: palm oil and its fractions, crude, not chemically modified is 15 out of 100, classified as low. Trade flows are relatively stable compared to other HS6 products, suggesting mature supply chains and predictable demand.

For market entrants, contracting demand signals caution before committing resources. A moderately concentrated market rewards differentiated positioning and strategic partner selection.

Data confidence is rated "High" based on reporting coverage and consistency across OECD member and partner countries.