Cocoa: paste, not defatted

In 2024, cocoa: paste, not defatted trade exhibited strong growth, with global flows reaching $6,494,077,011 and a three-year compound annual growth rate of +26.2% (five-year: +19.8%). The all-time peak of $6,494,077,011 was recorded in 2024.

Over the 30-year observation window (1995–2024), 76% of years recorded positive growth, indicating a predominantly expanding market. Trend momentum is strengthening (+17.4% acceleration).

The World Trade Flows Characterization classifies cocoa: paste, not defatted as "One-way trade" in the medium price range price segment, providing additional context for market positioning and competitive dynamics.

The supply side is diversified (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index 0.137). The three largest exporters — Netherlands ($1.7B), Ivory Coast ($1.3B), and Germany ($764.5M) — collectively dominate supply flows. The leading exporter has grown at +32.8% over the last three years.

On the demand side, importer concentration is diversified (HHI 0.065). The three largest import markets are Germany ($952.0M), Belgium ($694.9M), and Netherlands ($603.6M). The largest importing market sources from 57 different supplying countries.

Estimated substitution elasticity: -14.14. Buyers are highly price-sensitive and can switch between suppliers relatively easily.

The dominant trade corridor is Netherlands → Germany at $688.7M, representing 72.3% of the importer's total demand.

The volatility score for cocoa: paste, not defatted is 35 out of 100, classified as low. Trade flows are moderately variable, typical for goods with seasonal or cyclical demand patterns.

For market entrants, strong demand tailwinds create a favourable entry environment. The diversified supply landscape means many competitors but also multiple entry points and buyer relationships to target.

Data confidence is rated "High" based on reporting coverage and consistency across OECD member and partner countries.