Vegetable oils: excluding low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, crude

In 2024, vegetable oils: excluding low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, crude trade exhibited significant decline, with global flows reaching $553,107,387 and a three-year compound annual growth rate of -3.0% (five-year: +11.1%). The all-time peak of $663,931,015 was recorded in 2022; the current level is 17% below that high-water mark.

Over the 30-year observation window (1995–2024), 48% of years recorded positive growth, indicating significant cyclicality with frequent contractions. Trend momentum is decelerating (-11.9% acceleration).

The supply side is moderately concentrated (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index 0.169). The three largest exporters — Netherlands ($140.3M), Germany ($122.6M), and Belgium ($111.7M) — collectively dominate supply flows. The leading exporter has grown at -11.7% over the last three years.

On the demand side, importer concentration is moderately concentrated (HHI 0.195). The three largest import markets are Netherlands ($157.8M), Belgium ($149.6M), and Germany ($82.6M). The largest importing market sources from 33 different supplying countries.

Estimated substitution elasticity: -10.74. Buyers are highly price-sensitive and can switch between suppliers relatively easily.

The dominant trade corridor is Netherlands → Belgium at $101.0M, representing 67.5% of the importer's total demand.

The volatility score for vegetable oils: excluding low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, crude is 8 out of 100, classified as low. Trade flows are relatively stable compared to other HS6 products, suggesting mature supply chains and predictable demand.

For market entrants, contracting demand signals caution before committing resources. A moderately concentrated market rewards differentiated positioning and strategic partner selection.

Data confidence is rated "High" based on reporting coverage and consistency across OECD member and partner countries.