Vegetable oils: palm oil and its fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified

In 2024, vegetable oils: palm oil and its fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified trade exhibited significant decline, with global flows reaching $31,738,030,282 and a three-year compound annual growth rate of -4.1% (five-year: +9.2%). The all-time peak of $41,991,190,458 was recorded in 2022; the current level is 24% below that high-water mark.

Over the 30-year observation window (1995–2024), 59% of years recorded positive growth, indicating a mildly upward trajectory with periodic contractions. Trend momentum is decelerating (-6.9% acceleration).

The World Trade Flows Characterization classifies vegetable oils: palm oil and its fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified as "One-way trade" in the medium price range price segment, providing additional context for market positioning and competitive dynamics.

The supply side is concentrated (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index 0.384). The three largest exporters — Indonesia ($17.0B), Malaysia ($9.9B), and Netherlands ($948.7M) — collectively dominate supply flows. The leading exporter has grown at -8.7% over the last three years.

On the demand side, importer concentration is diversified (HHI 0.036). The three largest import markets are China ($3.1B), Pakistan ($2.9B), and India ($1.9B). The largest importing market sources from 20 different supplying countries.

Estimated substitution elasticity: -8.08. Buyers are highly price-sensitive and can switch between suppliers relatively easily.

The dominant trade corridor is Indonesia → Pakistan at $2.5B, representing 85.9% of the importer's total demand.

The volatility score for vegetable oils: palm oil and its fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified is 12 out of 100, classified as low. Trade flows are relatively stable compared to other HS6 products, suggesting mature supply chains and predictable demand.

For market entrants, contracting demand signals caution before committing resources. The concentrated supply structure suggests high barriers but also potential opportunity if dominant suppliers face disruption or capacity constraints.

Data confidence is rated "High" based on reporting coverage and consistency across OECD member and partner countries.