Wood, tropical: (as specified in subheading note 1, chapter 44, customs tariff), n.e.s. in item no. 4403.41, in the rough, whether or not stripped of bark or sapwood, or roughly squared, untreated

In 2024, wood, tropical: (as specified in subheading note 1, chapter 44, customs tariff), n.e.s. in item no. 4403.41, in the rough, whether or not stripped of bark or sapwood, or roughly squared, untreated trade exhibited significant decline, with global flows reaching $1,274,405,840 and a three-year compound annual growth rate of -12.5% (five-year: -10.6%). The all-time peak of $2,898,370,979 was recorded in 2018; the current level is 56% below that high-water mark.

Over the 30-year observation window (1995–2024), 52% of years recorded positive growth, indicating a mildly upward trajectory with periodic contractions. Trend momentum is decelerating (-10.3% acceleration).

The World Trade Flows Characterization classifies wood, tropical: (as specified in subheading note 1, chapter 44, customs tariff), n.e.s. in item no. 4403.41, in the rough, whether or not stripped of bark or sapwood, or roughly squared, untreated as "One-way trade" in the medium price range price segment, providing additional context for market positioning and competitive dynamics.

The supply side is diversified (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index 0.078). The three largest exporters — Papua New Guinea ($260.1M), Cameroon ($132.4M), and Solomon Islands ($123.5M) — collectively dominate supply flows. The leading exporter has grown at -1.3% over the last three years.

On the demand side, importer concentration is concentrated (HHI 0.481). The three largest import markets are China ($830.0M), India ($295.4M), and Vietnam ($66.9M). The largest importing market sources from 60 different supplying countries.

Estimated substitution elasticity: -26.73. Buyers are highly price-sensitive and can switch between suppliers relatively easily.

The dominant trade corridor is Papua New Guinea → China at $243.4M, representing 29.3% of the importer's total demand.

The volatility score for wood, tropical: (as specified in subheading note 1, chapter 44, customs tariff), n.e.s. in item no. 4403.41, in the rough, whether or not stripped of bark or sapwood, or roughly squared, untreated is 14 out of 100, classified as low. Trade flows are relatively stable compared to other HS6 products, suggesting mature supply chains and predictable demand.

For market entrants, contracting demand signals caution before committing resources. The diversified supply landscape means many competitors but also multiple entry points and buyer relationships to target.

Data confidence is rated "High" based on reporting coverage and consistency across OECD member and partner countries.