Gin and geneva

In 2024, gin and geneva trade exhibited slight decline, with global flows reaching $1,597,348,023 and a three-year compound annual growth rate of +2.4% (five-year: +0.9%). The all-time peak of $1,833,601,736 was recorded in 2022; the current level is 13% below that high-water mark.

Over the 30-year observation window (1995–2024), 72% of years recorded positive growth, indicating a predominantly expanding market. Trend momentum is steady (-2.6% acceleration).

The World Trade Flows Characterization classifies gin and geneva as "One-way trade" in the high price range price segment, providing additional context for market positioning and competitive dynamics.

The supply side is concentrated (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index 0.330). The three largest exporters — United Kingdom ($898.8M), Germany ($91.7M), and Spain ($86.1M) — collectively dominate supply flows. The leading exporter has grown at +2.4% over the last three years.

On the demand side, importer concentration is diversified (HHI 0.082). The three largest import markets are United States ($387.6M), Italy ($166.3M), and Spain ($91.9M). The largest importing market sources from 71 different supplying countries.

Estimated substitution elasticity: -0.28. Buyers tend to remain with established suppliers even when price differences exist.

The dominant trade corridor is United Kingdom → United States at $304.8M, representing 78.6% of the importer's total demand.

The volatility score for gin and geneva is 6 out of 100, classified as low. Trade flows are relatively stable compared to other HS6 products, suggesting mature supply chains and predictable demand.

For market entrants, contracting demand signals caution before committing resources. The concentrated supply structure suggests high barriers but also potential opportunity if dominant suppliers face disruption or capacity constraints.

Data confidence is rated "High" based on reporting coverage and consistency across OECD member and partner countries.