Vegetable oils: coconut (copra) oil and its fractions, crude, not chemically modified

In 2024, vegetable oils: coconut (copra) oil and its fractions, crude, not chemically modified trade exhibited strong growth, with global flows reaching $1,825,403,705 and a three-year compound annual growth rate of +1.6% (five-year: +13.3%). The all-time peak of $2,254,755,733 was recorded in 2022; the current level is 19% below that high-water mark.

Over the 30-year observation window (1995–2024), 59% of years recorded positive growth, indicating a mildly upward trajectory with periodic contractions. Trend momentum is steady (-1.2% acceleration).

The World Trade Flows Characterization classifies vegetable oils: coconut (copra) oil and its fractions, crude, not chemically modified as "One-way trade" in the medium price range price segment, providing additional context for market positioning and competitive dynamics.

The supply side is concentrated (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index 0.424). The three largest exporters — Philippines ($1.1B), Indonesia ($413.4M), and Papua New Guinea ($65.7M) — collectively dominate supply flows. The leading exporter has grown at +2.9% over the last three years.

On the demand side, importer concentration is moderately concentrated (HHI 0.162). The three largest import markets are Netherlands ($584.3M), Malaysia ($317.3M), and United States ($230.0M). The largest importing market sources from 45 different supplying countries.

Estimated substitution elasticity: -14.49. Buyers are highly price-sensitive and can switch between suppliers relatively easily.

The dominant trade corridor is Philippines → Netherlands at $407.7M, representing 69.8% of the importer's total demand.

The volatility score for vegetable oils: coconut (copra) oil and its fractions, crude, not chemically modified is 20 out of 100, classified as low. Trade flows are relatively stable compared to other HS6 products, suggesting mature supply chains and predictable demand.

For market entrants, strong demand tailwinds create a favourable entry environment. The concentrated supply structure suggests high barriers but also potential opportunity if dominant suppliers face disruption or capacity constraints.

Data confidence is rated "High" based on reporting coverage and consistency across OECD member and partner countries.