Lucerne (alfalfa) meal and pellets

In 2024, lucerne (alfalfa) meal and pellets trade exhibited significant decline, with global flows reaching $333,990,806 and a three-year compound annual growth rate of -11.4% (five-year: -1.4%). The all-time peak of $560,840,508 was recorded in 2012; the current level is 40% below that high-water mark.

Over the 30-year observation window (1995–2024), 48% of years recorded positive growth, indicating significant cyclicality with frequent contractions. Trend momentum is decelerating (-7.8% acceleration).

The World Trade Flows Characterization classifies lucerne (alfalfa) meal and pellets as "One-way trade" in the high price range price segment, providing additional context for market positioning and competitive dynamics.

The supply side is diversified (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index 0.107). The three largest exporters — Spain ($76.3M), Italy ($49.8M), and France ($44.0M) — collectively dominate supply flows. The leading exporter has grown at -23.3% over the last three years.

On the demand side, importer concentration is diversified (HHI 0.064). The three largest import markets are United Arab Emirates ($56.5M), United States ($32.5M), and Japan ($29.5M). The largest importing market sources from 20 different supplying countries.

Estimated substitution elasticity: -10.70. Buyers are highly price-sensitive and can switch between suppliers relatively easily.

The dominant trade corridor is Canada → United States at $27.0M, representing 83.0% of the importer's total demand.

The volatility score for lucerne (alfalfa) meal and pellets is 18 out of 100, classified as low. Trade flows are relatively stable compared to other HS6 products, suggesting mature supply chains and predictable demand.

For market entrants, contracting demand signals caution before committing resources. The diversified supply landscape means many competitors but also multiple entry points and buyer relationships to target.

Data confidence is rated "High" based on reporting coverage and consistency across OECD member and partner countries.