Cereals: rice, broken

In 2024, cereals: rice, broken trade exhibited strong growth, with global flows reaching $2,757,866,492 and a three-year compound annual growth rate of -1.3% (five-year: +9.5%). The all-time peak of $3,292,228,330 was recorded in 2022; the current level is 16% below that high-water mark.

Over the 30-year observation window (1995–2024), 66% of years recorded positive growth, indicating a predominantly expanding market. Trend momentum is decelerating (-4.7% acceleration).

The World Trade Flows Characterization classifies cereals: rice, broken as "One-way trade" in the low price range price segment, providing additional context for market positioning and competitive dynamics.

The supply side is diversified (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index 0.120). The three largest exporters — Thailand ($638.5M), Pakistan ($462.5M), and India ($365.9M) — collectively dominate supply flows. The leading exporter has grown at +24.5% over the last three years.

On the demand side, importer concentration is diversified (HHI 0.071). The three largest import markets are Senegal ($525.7M), China ($289.0M), and Ivory Coast ($218.2M). The largest importing market sources from 24 different supplying countries.

Estimated substitution elasticity: -7.58. Buyers are highly price-sensitive and can switch between suppliers relatively easily.

The dominant trade corridor is Thailand → Senegal at $177.9M, representing 33.8% of the importer's total demand.

The volatility score for cereals: rice, broken is 14 out of 100, classified as low. Trade flows are relatively stable compared to other HS6 products, suggesting mature supply chains and predictable demand.

For market entrants, strong demand tailwinds create a favourable entry environment. The diversified supply landscape means many competitors but also multiple entry points and buyer relationships to target.

Data confidence is rated "High" based on reporting coverage and consistency across OECD member and partner countries.