Cereals: wheat and meslin, durum wheat, other than seed

In 2024, cereals: wheat and meslin, durum wheat, other than seed trade exhibited slight decline, with global flows reaching $10,207,221,082 and a three-year compound annual growth rate of +17.1% (five-year: +21.1%). The all-time peak of $10,351,668,526 was recorded in 2023; the current level is 1% below that high-water mark.

Over the 30-year observation window (1995–2024), 59% of years recorded positive growth, indicating a mildly upward trajectory with periodic contractions. Trend momentum is strengthening (+12.4% acceleration).

The supply side is moderately concentrated (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index 0.199). The three largest exporters — Russia ($4.1B), Canada ($1.9B), and Ukraine ($773.1M) — collectively dominate supply flows. The leading exporter has grown at +143.0% over the last three years.

On the demand side, importer concentration is diversified (HHI 0.137). The three largest import markets are Egypt ($3.4B), Italy ($953.4M), and Algeria ($642.1M). The largest importing market sources from 14 different supplying countries.

The dominant trade corridor is Russia → Egypt at $2.7B, representing 80.6% of the importer's total demand.

The volatility score for cereals: wheat and meslin, durum wheat, other than seed is 11 out of 100, classified as low. Trade flows are relatively stable compared to other HS6 products, suggesting mature supply chains and predictable demand.

For market entrants, contracting demand signals caution before committing resources. A moderately concentrated market rewards differentiated positioning and strategic partner selection.

Data confidence is rated "High" based on reporting coverage and consistency across OECD member and partner countries.