Vinyl chloride, other halogenated olefin polymers: n.e.c. in heading no. 3904

In 2024, vinyl chloride, other halogenated olefin polymers: n.e.c. in heading no. 3904 trade exhibited modest growth, with global flows reaching $591,052,700 and a three-year compound annual growth rate of -4.0% (five-year: +1.8%). The all-time peak of $848,565,192 was recorded in 2022; the current level is 30% below that high-water mark.

Over the 30-year observation window (1995–2024), 55% of years recorded positive growth, indicating a mildly upward trajectory with periodic contractions. Trend momentum is decelerating (-5.3% acceleration).

The World Trade Flows Characterization classifies vinyl chloride, other halogenated olefin polymers: n.e.c. in heading no. 3904 as "One-way trade" in the medium price range price segment, providing additional context for market positioning and competitive dynamics.

The supply side is diversified (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index 0.113). The three largest exporters — Thailand ($114.3M), Japan ($90.9M), and United States ($81.5M) — collectively dominate supply flows. The leading exporter has grown at +9.3% over the last three years.

On the demand side, importer concentration is moderately concentrated (HHI 0.244). The three largest import markets are India ($283.8M), Belgium ($34.7M), and China ($32.6M). The largest importing market sources from 29 different supplying countries.

Estimated substitution elasticity: -6.50. Buyers are highly price-sensitive and can switch between suppliers relatively easily.

The dominant trade corridor is Thailand → India at $104.9M, representing 37.0% of the importer's total demand.

The volatility score for vinyl chloride, other halogenated olefin polymers: n.e.c. in heading no. 3904 is 18 out of 100, classified as low. Trade flows are relatively stable compared to other HS6 products, suggesting mature supply chains and predictable demand.

For market entrants, modest but steady demand provides a reasonable entry window. The diversified supply landscape means many competitors but also multiple entry points and buyer relationships to target.

Data confidence is rated "High" based on reporting coverage and consistency across OECD member and partner countries.