T13 · Trade opportunity evidence

South Africa (ZAF) to Kenya (KEN) vinyl chloride, other halogenated olefin polymers: vinyl chloride copolymers, in primary forms n.e.c. in heading no. 3904 (HS6 390440)

A country-to-country view of reported vinyl chloride, other halogenated olefin polymers: vinyl chloride copolymers, in primary forms n.e.c. in heading no. 3904 trade, combining buyer demand, exporter position, market structure, access conditions, and observed lane history.

Exporter South Africa (ZAF)Importer Kenya (KEN)HS6 390440Two-way vertical tradeCoverage 2003-2017Declining

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3-year buyer projection

$1.3MCalculated from reported demand

Exporter growth

-10.2%Full available history

Suppliers in market

5Latest reported count

Observed history

15 yearsLast year: 2017

Reported observations

What this vinyl chloride, other halogenated olefin polymers: vinyl chloride copolymers, in primary forms n.e.c. in heading no. 3904 lane shows for HS 390440

Core values for South Africa (ZAF) → Kenya (KEN) in HS 390440.

Buyer market

Latest imports$954.4K

Five-year projection$1.6M

Buyer CAGR+10.8%

Latest annual change+205.1%

Exporter position

Latest exports$4.5K

Market share1%

Share change+0.4 pp

Best observed share93.2%

Market structure

Reported suppliers5

Concentration index8,722.1

Share gap+92.2 pp

SignalDeclining

Detailed evidence

Complete lane evidence

Reported values, calculated indicators, and country-pair context for this route.

Measure	Value	What it describes
Buyer imports	$954.4K	Kenya (KEN)'s latest reported imports
Exporter exports	$4.5K	South Africa (ZAF)'s exports to Kenya (KEN)
Exporter market share	1%	Exporter share of the reported buyer market
Buyer five-year CAGR	+10.8%	Annualized change in buyer imports
Exporter full-history CAGR	-10.2%	Annualized change in exporter exports
Three-year buyer projection	$1.3M	Calculated projection from reported demand
Five-year buyer projection	$1.6M	Calculated projection from reported demand
Average buyer imports	$315.3K	Average reported importer value
Peak buyer imports	$1.5M	Highest reported importer value
Average exporter exports	$4.6K	Average reported lane exports
Peak exporter exports	$28.3K	Highest reported lane exports
Share change	+0.4 pp	Latest one-year change in exporter share
Reported suppliers	5	Supplier countries observed in the latest period
Buyer GDP	$110.3B	Latest buyer-country GDP estimate
Buyer GDP per person	$2.0K	Latest buyer-country GDP per person
Buyer population	54,985.7 thousand	Latest buyer-country population estimate
Buyer investment rate	19.7%	Reported buyer-country investment rate
Buyer secondary education	37.5%	Reported secondary education coverage
Distance	4,106 km	Approximate country-pair distance
Business entry time	23 days	Reported days to start a business
Shared legal system	Yes	Country-pair institutional relationship
Reported FTA	No	Reported trade-agreement indicator
WTO member	Yes	Buyer-country WTO membership indicator
Lane volatility	1.5	Variation indicator across observed lane values
Maximum drawdown	99.2%	Largest observed decline from a prior peak
Observed history	15 years	Coverage through 2017

Research reading

Vinyl chloride, other halogenated olefin polymers: vinyl chloride copolymers, in primary forms n.e.c. in heading no. 3904 demand and the South Africa (ZAF) to Kenya (KEN) lane

Kenya (KEN) reported $954.4K of vinyl chloride, other halogenated olefin polymers: vinyl chloride copolymers, in primary forms n.e.c. in heading no. 3904 imports in 2017. South Africa (ZAF) accounted for 1% of the observed market and reported $4.5K in exports on this lane.

The latest annual values eased slightly, while the longer available history shows +10.8% buyer growth and -10.2% exporter growth. The page separates reported values from projections and indicators.

Product classification

What does HS 390440 include?

HS 390440 covers Vinyl chloride, other halogenated olefin polymers: vinyl chloride copolymers, in primary forms n.e.c. in heading no. 3904. This page studies the six-digit Harmonized System classification rather than a company, brand, retail category, or individual shipment.

The classification sits in HS chapter 39 and heading 3904. The recorded trade type is two-way vertical trade, with a medium price range classification in the available product reference data.

How to interpret this page

Compare demand, position, and history together

This HS 390440 trade opportunity page brings together the buyer market in Kenya (KEN), the exporter position of South Africa (ZAF), and the observed conditions of their trade lane. A large buyer market does not by itself show that every exporter has equal access, and a positive growth rate does not remove the need to examine volatility and historical coverage.

Use the reported imports and exports to understand scale, market share to understand position, projections to understand the calculated forward view, and lane history to understand how much evidence supports the comparison.

Frequently asked questions

Questions about South Africa (ZAF) to Kenya (KEN) vinyl chloride, other halogenated olefin polymers: vinyl chloride copolymers, in primary forms n.e.c. in heading no. 3904 trade

What is the HS code for this product?

This page covers HS 390440, the six-digit product classification shown in the trade records.

How large is the Kenya (KEN) market?

The page reports the latest buyer imports, historical averages, peaks, growth, and calculated projections for vinyl chloride, other halogenated olefin polymers: vinyl chloride copolymers, in primary forms n.e.c. in heading no. 3904.

How strong is South Africa (ZAF) in this market?

Exporter performance is shown through lane exports, market share, share change, growth, and the number of reported suppliers.

What should be checked before entering this market?

Review market scale, competition, access indicators, volatility, drawdown, and the available history together rather than relying on one signal.

Definitions and coverage

How to read this page

Reported values

Trade values describe reported merchandise trade for the stated HS6 classification. They are not company-level sales or shipment records.

Calculated indicators

Growth, projections, concentration, volatility, and share-gap figures are calculated from the reported observations and should be interpreted with their coverage period.

Coverage

This sample covers 15 observed years through 2017. Missing values are shown as not reported rather than estimated.

Explore the classification

Compare this product across markets and routes

Use the trade data and methodology pages to study other exporters, importers, and HS6 products.