T13 · Trade opportunity evidence

China (CHN) to POL (POL) heat pumps: other than air conditioning machines of heading no. 8415 (HS6 841861)

A country-to-country view of reported heat pumps: other than air conditioning machines of heading no. 8415 trade, combining buyer demand, exporter position, market structure, access conditions, and observed lane history.

Explore HS 841861 in the workspace

Exporter China (CHN)Importer POL (POL)HS6 841861Two-way horizontal tradeCoverage 2001-2024Growing

3-year buyer projection

$159.9MCalculated from reported demand

Exporter growth

+67.9%Full available history

Suppliers in market

38Latest reported count

Observed history

24 yearsLast year: 2024

Reported observations

What this heat pumps: other than air conditioning machines of heading no. 8415 lane shows for HS 841861

Core values for China (CHN) → POL (POL) in HS 841861.

Buyer market

Latest imports$133.4M

Five-year projection$180.3M

Buyer CAGR+6.2%

Latest annual change-58.9%

Exporter position

Latest exports$19.5M

Market share14.6%

Share change-20.6 pp

Best observed share27%

Market structure

Reported suppliers38

Concentration index1,320.8

Share gap+12.4 pp

SignalGrowing

Detailed evidence

Complete lane evidence

Reported values, calculated indicators, and country-pair context for this route.

Measure	Value	What it describes
Buyer imports	$133.4M	POL (POL)'s latest reported imports
Exporter exports	$19.5M	China (CHN)'s exports to POL (POL)
Exporter market share	14.6%	Exporter share of the reported buyer market
Buyer five-year CAGR	+6.2%	Annualized change in buyer imports
Exporter full-history CAGR	+67.9%	Annualized change in exporter exports
Three-year buyer projection	$159.9M	Calculated projection from reported demand
Five-year buyer projection	$180.3M	Calculated projection from reported demand
Average buyer imports	$81.3M	Average reported importer value
Peak buyer imports	$422.3M	Highest reported importer value
Average exporter exports	$15.9M	Average reported lane exports
Peak exporter exports	$162.5M	Highest reported lane exports
Share change	-20.6 pp	Latest one-year change in exporter share
Reported suppliers	38	Supplier countries observed in the latest period
Buyer GDP	$674.0B	Latest buyer-country GDP estimate
Buyer GDP per person	$17.8K	Latest buyer-country GDP per person
Buyer population	37,781 thousand	Latest buyer-country population estimate
Buyer investment rate	22.7%	Reported buyer-country investment rate
Buyer secondary education	93.8%	Reported secondary education coverage
Distance	6,948 km	Approximate country-pair distance
Business entry time	37 days	Reported days to start a business
Shared legal system	Yes	Country-pair institutional relationship
Reported FTA	No	Reported trade-agreement indicator
WTO member	Yes	Buyer-country WTO membership indicator
Lane volatility	2.4	Variation indicator across observed lane values
Maximum drawdown	90.4%	Largest observed decline from a prior peak
Observed history	24 years	Coverage through 2024

Research reading

Heat pumps: other than air conditioning machines of heading no. 8415 demand and the China (CHN) to POL (POL) lane

POL (POL) reported $133.4M of heat pumps: other than air conditioning machines of heading no. 8415 imports in 2024. China (CHN) accounted for 14.6% of the observed market and reported $19.5M in exports on this lane.

The latest annual values eased slightly, while the longer available history shows +6.2% buyer growth and +67.9% exporter growth. The page separates reported values from projections and indicators.

Product classification

What does HS 841861 include?

HS 841861 covers Heat pumps: other than air conditioning machines of heading no. 8415. This page studies the six-digit Harmonized System classification rather than a company, brand, retail category, or individual shipment.

The classification sits in HS chapter 84 and heading 8418. The recorded trade type is two-way horizontal trade, with a medium price range classification in the available product reference data.

How to interpret this page

Compare demand, position, and history together

This HS 841861 trade opportunity page brings together the buyer market in POL (POL), the exporter position of China (CHN), and the observed conditions of their trade lane. A large buyer market does not by itself show that every exporter has equal access, and a positive growth rate does not remove the need to examine volatility and historical coverage.

Use the reported imports and exports to understand scale, market share to understand position, projections to understand the calculated forward view, and lane history to understand how much evidence supports the comparison.

Frequently asked questions

Questions about China (CHN) to POL (POL) heat pumps: other than air conditioning machines of heading no. 8415 trade

What is the HS code for this product?

This page covers HS 841861, the six-digit product classification shown in the trade records.

How large is the POL (POL) market?

The page reports the latest buyer imports, historical averages, peaks, growth, and calculated projections for heat pumps: other than air conditioning machines of heading no. 8415.

How strong is China (CHN) in this market?

Exporter performance is shown through lane exports, market share, share change, growth, and the number of reported suppliers.

What should be checked before entering this market?

Review market scale, competition, access indicators, volatility, drawdown, and the available history together rather than relying on one signal.

Definitions and coverage

How to read this page

Reported values

Trade values describe reported merchandise trade for the stated HS6 classification. They are not company-level sales or shipment records.

Calculated indicators

Growth, projections, concentration, volatility, and share-gap figures are calculated from the reported observations and should be interpreted with their coverage period.

Coverage

This sample covers 24 observed years through 2024. Missing values are shown as not reported rather than estimated.