# JPN to ITA Vehicles lane risk (HS 870340)

Trade has varied substantially across reported years. This macro trade lane has 26 years of reported coverage through 2024.

- Attention: Watch
- Volatility: Highly volatile (1.5)
- Maximum drawdown: 99.4%
- Import demand: import demand stable or growing
- Importer-market imports: $7.6B
- Exporter market share: 7.5%
- Access: Reported FTA available
- Macro context: importer macro trend resilient

## Macro and route context

- Importer-market five-year CAGR: +35.1%
- Importer GDP per capita: $35.6K
- Population estimate: 59,066k
- HS classification: Chapter 87, heading 8703
- Reported trade type: null
- Average applied tariff: 5.9%
- Preferential tariff: 0.3%
- Route distance: 9,869 km
- Country-level entry indicator: 11 days

Source: country-level reported merchandise trade observations and calculated risk indicators. This page does not represent named buyers, purchase orders, or a company-level forecast.


## Complete trade evidence

| Measure | Value | Type | Interpretation |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Importer-market imports | $7.6B | Reported | ITA latest reported imports |
| Exporter exports | $572.9M | Reported | JPN latest reported exports to ITA |
| Historical peak exports | $625.7M | Reported | Highest reported lane exports |
| Current below peak | 8.4% | Calculated | Difference from historical peak |
| Historical-average comparison | +281.9% | Calculated | Current value compared with historical average |
| Import-demand change | +24% | Calculated | Latest annual change in importer-market imports |
| Importer-market five-year projection | $23.3B | Calculated | Calculated import-market projection |
| Exporter market share | 7.5% | Calculated | Exporter share of reported importer-market imports |
| Addressable three-year value | $997.2M | Calculated | Calculated addressable trade projection |
| Reported source countries | 39 | Reported | Latest observed exporter-country count |
| Applied tariff | 5.9% | Reported | Average applied tariff indicator |
| Preferential tariff | 0.3% | Reported | Average preferential tariff indicator |
| Tariff advantage | +5.6 pp | Calculated | Difference between relevant tariff indicators |
| Lane volatility | 1.5 | Calculated | Variation across observed values |
| Maximum drawdown | 99.4% | Calculated | Largest fall from a prior peak |
| Risk drivers | high_volatility | Calculated | Recorded calculated driver categories |
| Macro resilience | importer macro trend resilient | Calculated | Importer-country macro classification |
| Observed history | 26 years | Reported | Coverage through 2024 |

## Frequently asked questions

### What does JPN to ITA lane risk mean?

It summarizes country-level reported trade recovery, volatility, drawdown, access conditions, competition, import demand, and macro context for the exporter-to-importer lane.

### Is this a guaranteed risk forecast?

No. The page combines reported observations with calculated indicators for research. Validate counterparties, tariffs, standards, logistics, pricing, and commercial conditions before acting.

### How should this lane-risk page be used?

Use it to identify questions for deeper product and importer-market research, then compare the lane with current trade, access conditions, source countries, and alternative markets.

## Related Yugalinks analysis

- [JPN export opportunities](https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/exporter/jpn/opportunities)
- [ITA import opportunities](https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/importer/ita/opportunities)
- [HS 870340 product overview](https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/product/870340)
- [JPN regional playbook](https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/playbook/JPN/region/europe)
- [JPN machinery sector playbook](https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/playbook/JPN/sector/machinery)
- [ITA regional playbook](https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/playbook/ITA/region/europe)
- [ITA machinery sector playbook](https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/playbook/ITA/sector/machinery)
- [Methods and definitions](https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology)

## Data sources

- Primary trade series: OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-31). [OECD Data Explorer](https://data-explorer.oecd.org/) - [OECD Terms & Conditions](https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/)
- CEPII BACI bilateral trade flows (202601): [dataset page](https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37) - [BACI documentation](https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html) - [Etalab 2.0 Open Licence](https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf)

This page presents derived Yugalinks views of reported observations and calculated indicators.

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Published by Yugalinks: https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/lane-risk/jpn-ita-870340

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