# DNK to CHN Machinery and mechanical appliances lane risk (HS 847950)

Trade has varied substantially across reported years. This macro trade lane has 27 years of reported coverage through 2024.

- Attention: High attention
- Volatility: Highly volatile (1.3)
- Maximum drawdown: 99.5%
- Import demand: import demand softened recently
- Importer-market imports: $659.3M
- Exporter market share: 4.3%
- Access: Standard market access
- Macro context: importer macro trend resilient

## Macro and route context

- Importer-market five-year CAGR: +4.6%
- Importer GDP per capita: $12.6K
- Population estimate: 1,412,360k
- HS classification: Chapter 84, heading 8479
- Reported trade type: One-way trade
- Average applied tariff: 30.2%
- Preferential tariff: 0%
- Route distance: 7,208 km
- Country-level entry indicator: 8.5 days

Source: country-level reported merchandise trade observations and calculated risk indicators. This page does not represent named buyers, purchase orders, or a company-level forecast.


## Complete trade evidence

| Measure | Value | Type | Interpretation |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Importer-market imports | $659.3M | Reported | CHN latest reported imports |
| Exporter exports | $28.5M | Reported | DNK latest reported exports to CHN |
| Historical peak exports | $41.7M | Reported | Highest reported lane exports |
| Current below peak | 31.6% | Calculated | Difference from historical peak |
| Historical-average comparison | +192.3% | Calculated | Current value compared with historical average |
| Import-demand change | -45.7% | Calculated | Latest annual change in importer-market imports |
| Importer-market five-year projection | $823.9M | Calculated | Calculated import-market projection |
| Exporter market share | 4.3% | Calculated | Exporter share of reported importer-market imports |
| Addressable three-year value | $478.3M | Calculated | Calculated addressable trade projection |
| Reported source countries | 46 | Reported | Latest observed exporter-country count |
| Applied tariff | 30.2% | Reported | Average applied tariff indicator |
| Preferential tariff | 0% | Reported | Average preferential tariff indicator |
| Tariff advantage | +0 pp | Calculated | Difference between relevant tariff indicators |
| Lane volatility | 1.3 | Calculated | Variation across observed values |
| Maximum drawdown | 99.5% | Calculated | Largest fall from a prior peak |
| Risk drivers | high_volatility, concentrated_buyer_market, dominant_supplier | Calculated | Recorded calculated driver categories |
| Macro resilience | importer macro trend resilient | Calculated | Importer-country macro classification |
| Observed history | 27 years | Reported | Coverage through 2024 |

## Frequently asked questions

### What does DNK to CHN lane risk mean?

It summarizes country-level reported trade recovery, volatility, drawdown, access conditions, competition, import demand, and macro context for the exporter-to-importer lane.

### Is this a guaranteed risk forecast?

No. The page combines reported observations with calculated indicators for research. Validate counterparties, tariffs, standards, logistics, pricing, and commercial conditions before acting.

### How should this lane-risk page be used?

Use it to identify questions for deeper product and importer-market research, then compare the lane with current trade, access conditions, source countries, and alternative markets.

## Related Yugalinks analysis

- [DNK export opportunities](https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/exporter/dnk/opportunities)
- [CHN import opportunities](https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/importer/chn/opportunities)
- [HS 847950 product overview](https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/product/847950)
- [DNK regional playbook](https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/playbook/DNK/region/europe)
- [DNK machinery sector playbook](https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/playbook/DNK/sector/machinery)
- [CHN regional playbook](https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/playbook/CHN/region/europe)
- [CHN machinery sector playbook](https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/playbook/CHN/sector/machinery)
- [Methods and definitions](https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology)

## Data sources

- Primary trade series: OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-31). [OECD Data Explorer](https://data-explorer.oecd.org/) - [OECD Terms & Conditions](https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/)
- CEPII BACI bilateral trade flows (202601): [dataset page](https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37) - [BACI documentation](https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html) - [Etalab 2.0 Open Licence](https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf)

This page presents derived Yugalinks views of reported observations and calculated indicators.

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Published by Yugalinks: https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/lane-risk/dnk-chn-847950

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