# DNK to Bulgaria Ethylene polymers lane risk (HS 392321)

Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak. This macro trade lane has 30 years of reported coverage through 2024.

- Attention: Watch
- Volatility: Highly volatile (1.8)
- Maximum drawdown: 93.3%
- Import demand: import demand softened recently
- Importer-market imports: $22.9M
- Exporter market share: 0.4%
- Access: Reported FTA available
- Macro context: importer macro trend resilient

## Macro and route context

- Importer-market five-year CAGR: +8.2%
- Importer GDP per capita: $11.6K
- Population estimate: 6,899k
- HS classification: Chapter 39, heading 3923
- Reported trade type: One-way trade
- Average applied tariff: 6.2%
- Preferential tariff: 5.4%
- Route distance: 1,639 km
- Country-level entry indicator: 23 days

Source: country-level reported merchandise trade observations and calculated risk indicators. This page does not represent named buyers, purchase orders, or a company-level forecast.


## Complete trade evidence

| Measure | Value | Type | Interpretation |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Importer-market imports | $22.9M | Reported | Bulgaria latest reported imports |
| Exporter exports | $102.3K | Reported | DNK latest reported exports to Bulgaria |
| Historical peak exports | $280.7K | Reported | Highest reported lane exports |
| Current below peak | 63.6% | Calculated | Difference from historical peak |
| Historical-average comparison | +185.3% | Calculated | Current value compared with historical average |
| Import-demand change | -2.1% | Calculated | Latest annual change in importer-market imports |
| Importer-market five-year projection | $34.0M | Calculated | Calculated import-market projection |
| Exporter market share | 0.4% | Calculated | Exporter share of reported importer-market imports |
| Addressable three-year value | $6.1M | Calculated | Calculated addressable trade projection |
| Reported source countries | 52 | Reported | Latest observed exporter-country count |
| Applied tariff | 6.2% | Reported | Average applied tariff indicator |
| Preferential tariff | 5.4% | Reported | Average preferential tariff indicator |
| Tariff advantage | +7 pp | Calculated | Difference between relevant tariff indicators |
| Lane volatility | 1.8 | Calculated | Variation across observed values |
| Maximum drawdown | 93.3% | Calculated | Largest fall from a prior peak |
| Risk drivers | high_volatility, unrecovered_drawdown | Calculated | Recorded calculated driver categories |
| Macro resilience | importer macro trend resilient | Calculated | Importer-country macro classification |
| Observed history | 30 years | Reported | Coverage through 2024 |

## Frequently asked questions

### What does DNK to Bulgaria lane risk mean?

It summarizes country-level reported trade recovery, volatility, drawdown, access conditions, competition, import demand, and macro context for the exporter-to-importer lane.

### Is this a guaranteed risk forecast?

No. The page combines reported observations with calculated indicators for research. Validate counterparties, tariffs, standards, logistics, pricing, and commercial conditions before acting.

### How should this lane-risk page be used?

Use it to identify questions for deeper product and importer-market research, then compare the lane with current trade, access conditions, source countries, and alternative markets.

## Related Yugalinks analysis

- [DNK export opportunities](https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/exporter/dnk/opportunities)
- [Bulgaria import opportunities](https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/importer/bgr/opportunities)
- [HS 392321 product overview](https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/product/392321)
- [DNK regional playbook](https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/playbook/DNK/region/europe)
- [DNK machinery sector playbook](https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/playbook/DNK/sector/machinery)
- [Bulgaria regional playbook](https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/playbook/BGR/region/europe)
- [Bulgaria machinery sector playbook](https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/playbook/BGR/sector/machinery)
- [Methods and definitions](https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology)

## Data sources

- Primary trade series: OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-31). [OECD Data Explorer](https://data-explorer.oecd.org/) - [OECD Terms & Conditions](https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/)
- CEPII BACI bilateral trade flows (202601): [dataset page](https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37) - [BACI documentation](https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html) - [Etalab 2.0 Open Licence](https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf)

This page presents derived Yugalinks views of reported observations and calculated indicators.

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