# Germany to POL Games n.e.c. in heading 9504, operated by coins, banknotes, bank cards, tokens or by other means of payment, other than bowling alley equipment lane risk (HS 950430)

Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak. This macro trade lane has 30 years of reported coverage through 2024.

- Attention: High attention
- Volatility: Highly volatile (1)
- Maximum drawdown: 75.7%
- Import demand: import demand softened recently
- Importer-market imports: $23.9M
- Exporter market share: 15.7%
- Access: Reported FTA available
- Macro context: importer macro trend resilient

## Macro and route context

- Importer-market five-year CAGR: +7.2%
- Importer GDP per capita: $17.8K
- Population estimate: 37,781k
- HS classification: Chapter 95, heading 9504
- Reported trade type: Two-way trade
- Average applied tariff: 8.1%
- Preferential tariff: 4.8%
- Route distance: 966 km
- Country-level entry indicator: 37 days

Source: country-level reported merchandise trade observations and calculated risk indicators. This page does not represent named buyers, purchase orders, or a company-level forecast.


## Complete trade evidence

| Measure | Value | Type | Interpretation |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Importer-market imports | $23.9M | Reported | POL latest reported imports |
| Exporter exports | $3.8M | Reported | Germany latest reported exports to POL |
| Historical peak exports | $10.0M | Reported | Highest reported lane exports |
| Current below peak | 62.5% | Calculated | Difference from historical peak |
| Historical-average comparison | +64.1% | Calculated | Current value compared with historical average |
| Import-demand change | -4.4% | Calculated | Latest annual change in importer-market imports |
| Importer-market five-year projection | $33.8M | Calculated | Calculated import-market projection |
| Exporter market share | 15.7% | Calculated | Exporter share of reported importer-market imports |
| Addressable three-year value | $1.2M | Calculated | Calculated addressable trade projection |
| Reported source countries | 62 | Reported | Latest observed exporter-country count |
| Applied tariff | 8.1% | Reported | Average applied tariff indicator |
| Preferential tariff | 4.8% | Reported | Average preferential tariff indicator |
| Tariff advantage | +4.6 pp | Calculated | Difference between relevant tariff indicators |
| Lane volatility | 1 | Calculated | Variation across observed values |
| Maximum drawdown | 75.7% | Calculated | Largest fall from a prior peak |
| Risk drivers | high_volatility, unrecovered_drawdown | Calculated | Recorded calculated driver categories |
| Macro resilience | importer macro trend resilient | Calculated | Importer-country macro classification |
| Observed history | 30 years | Reported | Coverage through 2024 |

## Frequently asked questions

### What does Germany to POL lane risk mean?

It summarizes country-level reported trade recovery, volatility, drawdown, access conditions, competition, import demand, and macro context for the exporter-to-importer lane.

### Is this a guaranteed risk forecast?

No. The page combines reported observations with calculated indicators for research. Validate counterparties, tariffs, standards, logistics, pricing, and commercial conditions before acting.

### How should this lane-risk page be used?

Use it to identify questions for deeper product and importer-market research, then compare the lane with current trade, access conditions, source countries, and alternative markets.

## Related Yugalinks analysis

- [Germany export opportunities](https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/exporter/deu/opportunities)
- [POL import opportunities](https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/importer/pol/opportunities)
- [HS 950430 product overview](https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/product/950430)
- [Germany regional playbook](https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/playbook/DEU/region/europe)
- [Germany machinery sector playbook](https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/playbook/DEU/sector/machinery)
- [POL regional playbook](https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/playbook/POL/region/europe)
- [POL machinery sector playbook](https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/playbook/POL/sector/machinery)
- [Methods and definitions](https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology)

## Data sources

- Primary trade series: OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-31). [OECD Data Explorer](https://data-explorer.oecd.org/) - [OECD Terms & Conditions](https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/)
- CEPII BACI bilateral trade flows (202601): [dataset page](https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37) - [BACI documentation](https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html) - [Etalab 2.0 Open Licence](https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf)

This page presents derived Yugalinks views of reported observations and calculated indicators.

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