# Germany to NLD Fruit, edible lane risk (HS 080610)

No material risk condition is currently identified. This macro trade lane has 30 years of reported coverage through 2024.

- Attention: Stable
- Volatility: Variable (0.5)
- Maximum drawdown: 56.4%
- Import demand: import demand softened recently
- Importer-market imports: $265.2M
- Exporter market share: 9.5%
- Access: Reported FTA available
- Macro context: importer macro trend resilient

## Macro and route context

- Importer-market five-year CAGR: +3.5%
- Importer GDP per capita: $58.1K
- Population estimate: 17,533k
- HS classification: Chapter 08, heading 0806
- Reported trade type: One-way trade
- Average applied tariff: 0%
- Preferential tariff: 0%
- Route distance: 174 km
- Country-level entry indicator: 3.5 days

Source: country-level reported merchandise trade observations and calculated risk indicators. This page does not represent named buyers, purchase orders, or a company-level forecast.


## Complete trade evidence

| Measure | Value | Type | Interpretation |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Importer-market imports | $265.2M | Reported | NLD latest reported imports |
| Exporter exports | $25.2M | Reported | Germany latest reported exports to NLD |
| Historical peak exports | $25.2M | Reported | Highest reported lane exports |
| Current below peak | 0% | Calculated | Difference from historical peak |
| Historical-average comparison | +105.9% | Calculated | Current value compared with historical average |
| Import-demand change | -40.9% | Calculated | Latest annual change in importer-market imports |
| Importer-market five-year projection | $315.3M | Calculated | Calculated import-market projection |
| Exporter market share | 9.5% | Calculated | Exporter share of reported importer-market imports |
| Addressable three-year value | $77.7M | Calculated | Calculated addressable trade projection |
| Reported source countries | 51 | Reported | Latest observed exporter-country count |
| Applied tariff | 0% | Reported | Average applied tariff indicator |
| Preferential tariff | 0% | Reported | Average preferential tariff indicator |
| Tariff advantage | +0 pp | Calculated | Difference between relevant tariff indicators |
| Lane volatility | 0.5 | Calculated | Variation across observed values |
| Maximum drawdown | 56.4% | Calculated | Largest fall from a prior peak |
| Risk drivers |  | Calculated | Recorded calculated driver categories |
| Macro resilience | importer macro trend resilient | Calculated | Importer-country macro classification |
| Observed history | 30 years | Reported | Coverage through 2024 |

## Frequently asked questions

### What does Germany to NLD lane risk mean?

It summarizes country-level reported trade recovery, volatility, drawdown, access conditions, competition, import demand, and macro context for the exporter-to-importer lane.

### Is this a guaranteed risk forecast?

No. The page combines reported observations with calculated indicators for research. Validate counterparties, tariffs, standards, logistics, pricing, and commercial conditions before acting.

### How should this lane-risk page be used?

Use it to identify questions for deeper product and importer-market research, then compare the lane with current trade, access conditions, source countries, and alternative markets.

## Related Yugalinks analysis

- [Germany export opportunities](https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/exporter/deu/opportunities)
- [NLD import opportunities](https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/importer/nld/opportunities)
- [HS 080610 product overview](https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/product/080610)
- [Germany regional playbook](https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/playbook/DEU/region/europe)
- [Germany machinery sector playbook](https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/playbook/DEU/sector/machinery)
- [NLD regional playbook](https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/playbook/NLD/region/europe)
- [NLD machinery sector playbook](https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/playbook/NLD/sector/machinery)
- [Methods and definitions](https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology)

## Data sources

- Primary trade series: OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-31). [OECD Data Explorer](https://data-explorer.oecd.org/) - [OECD Terms & Conditions](https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/)
- CEPII BACI bilateral trade flows (202601): [dataset page](https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37) - [BACI documentation](https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html) - [Etalab 2.0 Open Licence](https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf)

This page presents derived Yugalinks views of reported observations and calculated indicators.

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Published by Yugalinks: https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/lane-risk/deu-nld-080610

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