{ "template": "T14", "templateName": "HS6 Lane Risk and Access Profile", "source": "api", "publisher": { "name": "Yugalinks", "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com", "email": "support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks", "logo": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/yugalinks-logo-v3-dark-mode.webp" }, "branding": { "brandName": "Yugalinks", "logo": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/yugalinks-logo-v3-dark-mode.webp", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" }, "seo": { "title": "HS 820719 Vehicle Parts Trade Risk | Germany-UK | Yugalinks", "description": "HS 820719 vehicle parts and accessories between Germany and KAZ: lane risk, import demand, tariffs, market access, suppliers, and history.", "keywords": [ "HS 820719", "HS code 820719", "vehicle parts and accessories", "motor vehicle parts", "Germany to KAZ trade", "vehicle parts tariff", "automotive parts trade", "trade lane risk", "market access", "supplier competition" ], "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/lane-risk/deu-kaz-820719", "robots": "index, follow" }, "breadcrumbs": [ { "name": "Home", "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com/" }, { "name": "Trade data", "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/" }, { "name": "Germany to KAZ HS 820719 lane risk", "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/lane-risk/deu-kaz-820719" } ], "sections": [ "overview", "market-context", "trade-evidence", "risk-signals", "faq", "related-analysis", "data-source" ], "faq": [ { "question": "What does Germany to KAZ lane risk mean?", "answer": "It summarizes country-level reported trade recovery, volatility, drawdown, access conditions, competition, import demand, and macro context for the exporter-to-importer lane." }, { "question": "Is this a guaranteed risk forecast?", "answer": "No. The page combines reported observations with calculated indicators for research. 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Validate counterparties, tariffs, standards, logistics, pricing, and competition before acting.", "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology" }, "links": { "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/lane-risk/deu-kaz-820719", "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/lane-risk/deu-kaz-820719/index.md", "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/lane-risk/deu-kaz-820719/index.json", "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/lane-risk/deu-kaz-820719/index.ld.json", "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources", "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology", "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" }, "sourceAttribution": { "publisher": "OECD", "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D", "year": 2025, "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-31)", "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/", "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0", "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/", "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions", "accessed": "2026-08-31", "supportingSources": [ { "publisher": "CEPII", "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows", "release": "202601", "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.", "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html", "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37", "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf", "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence", "accessed": "2026-08-31" } ] }, "row": { "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "hs_code": "820719", "hs_description": "Tools, interchangeable: rock drilling or earth boring tools, with working part (other than of cermets), whether or not power operated, including parts", "hs_chapter": "82", "hs_heading": "8207", "price_range_label": "Low price range", "trade_type_label": "Two-way horizontal trade", "substitution_elasticity": -5.0267835, "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 28942651.68681025, "buyer_imports_avg_usd": 27597556.399737313, "buyer_imports_peak_usd": 59069639.34149148, "buyer_cagr_full_pct": 13.9818, "buyer_yoy_avg_pct": 22.8557, 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"exports_proj_5y_usd": 2522466.79, "your_share_gap_pp": 36.2064, "addressable_proj_3y_usd": 15517800.22, "addressable_proj_5y_usd": 20160477.96, "peer_best_share_pct": 39.06230205601582, "peer_top_exporter": "CHN", "num_suppliers_latest": 44, "buyer_herfindahl_index": 2137.97, "distance_km": 5148.3984375, "shares_official_language": 0, "common_spoken_language_score": 0.15769268572330475, "has_wto_reported_fta": 0, "buyer_is_eu_member": 0, "buyer_biz_entry_days": 5, "shared_legal_system": 0, "shared_religion": 0, "shares_land_border": 0, "buyer_is_wto_member": 1, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.850764073687903, "lane_max_drawdown_pct": 99.66912433848094, "signal_flag": "Growing", "lane_data_years": 30, "lane_last_year": 2024, "access_data_year": 2024, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 8.811168753409964, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 8.811168753409964, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null, "tariff_advantage_pp": null, "rta_coverage_ratio": null, "buyer_macro_latest_year": 2024, "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 9.917422718979218, "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 8.399650809013636, "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 1.4001630989012082, "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 27.696000000000005, "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 36.538, "current_below_peak_usd": 3572177.031774411, "current_below_peak_pct": 81.20911637759474, "latest_vs_historical_avg_pct": -42.916601396925124, "share_change_all_pp": 2.86104, "volatility_label": "Variable", "drawdown_label": "Still more than 50% below historical peak", "competition_label": "Moderately concentrated buyer market", "demand_label": "Buyer demand softened recently", "access_label": "Standard market access", "macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown" ], "risk_driver_count": 1, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak" }, "content": { "hero": { "exporter": "Germany", "importer": "KAZ", "product": "Tools, interchangeable", "hsCode": "820719", "summary": "A research view of trade recovery, volatility, drawdown, access conditions, competition, import demand, and macro context for this exporter-to-importer lane.", "primaryRiskReason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "attention": "Watch" }, "kpis": { "laneVolatility": "0.9", "maximumDrawdown": "99.7%", "importerMarketImports": "$28.9M", "exporterMarketShare": "2.9%" }, "marketContext": { "importerMarketImports": "$28.9M", "importerMarketCagr": "+14%", "importerGdp": "$190.8K", "importerGdpPerCapita": "$10.0K", "importerPopulation": "19,003", "macroResilience": "Buyer macro trend resilient" }, "routeContext": { "distanceKm": "5,148", "businessEntryDays": "5", "reportedFta": "No", "appliedTariff": "8.8%", "preferentialTariff": "0%", "tradeType": "Two-way horizontal trade" }, "evidence": [ { "measure": "Importer-market imports", "value": "$28.9M", "meaning": "KAZ latest reported imports", "kind": "Reported" }, { "measure": "Exporter exports", "value": "$826.6K", "meaning": "Germany latest reported exports to KAZ", "kind": "Reported" }, { "measure": "Historical peak exports", "value": "$4.4M", "meaning": "Highest reported lane exports", "kind": "Reported" }, { "measure": "Current below peak", "value": "81.2%", "meaning": "Difference from historical peak", "kind": "Calculated" }, { "measure": "Historical-average comparison", "value": "-42.9%", "meaning": "Current value compared with historical average", "kind": "Calculated" }, { "measure": "Import-demand change", "value": "-5.5%", "meaning": "Latest annual change in importer-market imports", "kind": "Calculated" }, { "measure": "Importer-market five-year projection", "value": "$55.7M", "meaning": "Calculated import-market projection", "kind": "Calculated" }, { "measure": "Exporter market share", "value": "2.9%", "meaning": "Exporter share of reported importer-market imports", "kind": "Calculated" }, { "measure": "Addressable three-year value", "value": "$15.5M", "meaning": "Calculated addressable trade projection", "kind": "Calculated" }, { "measure": "Reported source countries", "value": "44", "meaning": "Latest observed exporter-country count", "kind": "Reported" }, { "measure": "Applied tariff", "value": "8.8%", "meaning": "Average applied tariff indicator", "kind": "Reported" }, { "measure": "Preferential tariff", "value": "0%", "meaning": "Average preferential tariff indicator", "kind": "Reported" }, { "measure": "Tariff advantage", "value": "+0 pp", "meaning": "Difference between relevant tariff indicators", "kind": "Calculated" }, { "measure": "Lane volatility", "value": "0.9", "meaning": "Variation across observed values", "kind": "Calculated" }, { "measure": "Maximum drawdown", "value": "99.7%", "meaning": "Largest fall from a prior peak", "kind": "Calculated" }, { "measure": "Risk drivers", "value": "unrecovered_drawdown", "meaning": "Recorded calculated driver categories", "kind": "Calculated" }, { "measure": "Macro resilience", "value": "importer macro trend resilient", "meaning": "Importer-country macro classification", "kind": "Calculated" }, { "measure": "Observed history", "value": "30 years", "meaning": "Coverage through 2024", "kind": "Reported" } ], "faq": [ { "question": "What does Germany to KAZ lane risk mean?", "answer": "It summarizes country-level reported trade recovery, volatility, drawdown, access conditions, competition, import demand, and macro context for the exporter-to-importer lane." }, { "question": "Is this a guaranteed risk forecast?", "answer": "No. The page combines reported observations with calculated indicators for research. Validate counterparties, tariffs, standards, logistics, pricing, and commercial conditions before acting." }, { "question": "How should this lane-risk page be used?", "answer": "Use it to identify questions for deeper product and importer-market research, then compare the lane with current trade, access conditions, source countries, and alternative markets." } ], "relatedLinks": { "exporter": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/exporter/deu/opportunities", "importer": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/importer/kaz/opportunities", "product": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/product/820719", "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology" }, "methodology": { "summary": "Country-level reported trade observations and calculated indicators are shown separately. Validate counterparties, tariffs, standards, logistics, pricing, and competition before acting.", "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology" }, "sourceAttribution": { "publisher": "OECD", "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D", "year": 2025, "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-31)", "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/", "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0", "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/", "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions", "accessed": "2026-08-31", "supportingSources": [ { "publisher": "CEPII", "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows", "release": "202601", "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. 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