{ "template": "Corridor pair risk profile", "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile", "source": "api", "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:13.290Z", "seo": { "title": "Zambia exports to South Africa: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks", "description": "Understand reported exports from Zambia to South Africa, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning." }, "publisher": { "name": "Yugalinks", "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com", "email": "support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" }, "exporter": { "iso3": "ZMB", "country_name": "Zambia" }, "importer": { "iso3": "ZAF", "country_name": "South Africa" }, "latestYear": 2024, "risk": { "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "all_history_lane_count": 133, "current_lane_count": 89, "current_product_count": 89, "first_observed_last_year": 2000, "latest_data_year": 2024, "current_trade_usd": 283081422.91764927, "attention_trade_usd": 263595364.24756968, "critical_trade_usd": 149308461.08932263, "high_volatility_trade_usd": 147652786.28838575, "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 167367110.12938467, "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0, "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 250740402.69578904, "access_friction_trade_usd": 0, "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 283081422.91764927, "critical_lane_count": 3, "high_attention_lane_count": 15, "high_volatility_lane_count": 77, "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 38, "declining_demand_lane_count": 0, "concentrated_market_lane_count": 39, "access_friction_lane_count": 0, "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 1.5424411382908696, "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 46.19323793537571, "product_concentration_hhi": 1325.7837015910743, "top1_product_share_pct": 27.86036550166567, "top3_product_share_pct": 52.82369096865867, "top_product_hs6": "740311", "top_product_trade_usd": 78867519.09217305, "top_product_description": "Copper: refined, unwrought, cathodes and sections of cathodes", "top_attention_product_hs6": "740311", "top_attention_product_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "distance_km": 2278.582275390625, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 1, "common_spoken_language_score": 0.04639999940991402, "has_reported_fta": 1, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 8.626982093734, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 11.331475398787877, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 5.451376210753535, "tariff_advantage_pp": 5.880099188034341, "buyer_biz_entry_days": 40, "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null, "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 419946.428126, "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 6994, "buyer_population_latest": 60041.996, "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 0.5997022185294298, "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": -0.829491262325488, "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 1.4411476748953822, "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 19.936, "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 19.216, "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend weakened", "attention_trade_share_pct": 93.1164473919759, "critical_trade_share_pct": 52.74399836995227, "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_markets", "buyer_macro_weakness" ], "attention_level": "Critical attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Buyer-market concentration is the largest observed corridor exposure", "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 419946.428126, "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 6994, "buyer_population_2024": 60041.996 }, "history": [ { "year": 2000, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 78470758.86044288, "yoy_growth_pct": null, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 2001, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 91941667.82623939, "yoy_growth_pct": 17.166788191451033, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 2002, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 107681425.3092152, "yoy_growth_pct": 17.11928645097278, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 2003, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 104240312.93721178, "yoy_growth_pct": -3.1956415529623694, "cagr_3y_pct": 9.928242500382357 }, { "year": 2004, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 244863406.51739442, "yoy_growth_pct": 134.90279299610864, "cagr_3y_pct": 38.61295960226474 }, { "year": 2005, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 191285818.85769385, "yoy_growth_pct": -21.880602096375135, "cagr_3y_pct": 21.110182809421918 }, { "year": 2006, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 347782524.60805714, "yoy_growth_pct": 81.81302026722025, "cagr_3y_pct": 49.425258708445675 }, { "year": 2007, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 442311599.80532587, "yoy_growth_pct": 27.180513254310522, "cagr_3y_pct": 21.787153705522687 }, { "year": 2008, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 309526757.49532366, "yoy_growth_pct": -30.02065565733403, "cagr_3y_pct": 17.4010031793687 }, { "year": 2009, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 243589381.6331416, "yoy_growth_pct": -21.302641618367435, "cagr_3y_pct": -11.192386602098125 }, { "year": 2010, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 358837776.1758924, "yoy_growth_pct": 47.31256911531594, "cagr_3y_pct": -6.734016165482581 }, { "year": 2011, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 564672862.0991004, "yoy_growth_pct": 57.36159891435544, "cagr_3y_pct": 22.189223809725924 }, { "year": 2012, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 563704035.3631165, "yoy_growth_pct": -0.1715731002871923, "cagr_3y_pct": 32.27088630405133 }, { "year": 2013, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 738367472.1846557, "yoy_growth_pct": 30.98495413626543, "cagr_3y_pct": 27.191512918124737 }, { "year": 2014, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 437557824.6099295, "yoy_growth_pct": -40.73982927290949, "cagr_3y_pct": -8.149925532341552 }, { "year": 2015, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 281715219.7632516, "yoy_growth_pct": -35.616459375536756, "cagr_3y_pct": -20.64279032904295 }, { "year": 2016, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 240735146.22860742, "yoy_growth_pct": -14.546631015918521, "cagr_3y_pct": -31.173505901297915 }, { "year": 2017, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 249633120.5788473, "yoy_growth_pct": 3.6961675474632028, "cagr_3y_pct": -17.06161321631231 }, { "year": 2018, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 311350876.72744733, "yoy_growth_pct": 24.72338446336344, "cagr_3y_pct": 3.3903314234439375 }, { "year": 2019, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 212472815.55012986, "yoy_growth_pct": -31.757759032705113, "cagr_3y_pct": -4.077322889858914 }, { "year": 2020, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 134757943.31317997, "yoy_growth_pct": -36.57638368265243, "cagr_3y_pct": -18.576320737231345 }, { "year": 2021, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 252343087.03850666, "yoy_growth_pct": 87.25655856297585, "cagr_3y_pct": -6.764685617167599 }, { "year": 2022, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 245848935.09942713, "yoy_growth_pct": -2.5735406566095187, "cagr_3y_pct": 4.983646350351956 }, { "year": 2023, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 309588967.39492726, "yoy_growth_pct": 25.92650330973456, "cagr_3y_pct": 31.95029550653752 }, { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 316473374.8458242, "yoy_growth_pct": 2.2237250599808522, "cagr_3y_pct": 7.840507307016664 } ], "riskLanes": [ { "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "hs_code": "740311", "hs_description": "Copper: refined, unwrought, cathodes and sections of cathodes", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 367305900.9131845, "current_below_peak_pct": 60.87745505184428, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.775157061368156, "attention_level": "Critical attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "hs_code": "282200", "hs_description": "Cobalt oxides and hydroxides: commercial cobalt oxides", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 1608382790.0019484, "current_below_peak_pct": 74.60656250604514, "lane_volatility_cv": 2.657490961273625, "attention_level": "Critical attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "hs_code": "690740", "hs_description": "Finishing ceramics", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 29686063.748700164, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 2.2968848996960447, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "hs_code": "740811", "hs_description": "Copper: wire, of refined copper, of which the maximum cross-sectional dimension exceeds 6mm", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 560201614.1703882, "current_below_peak_pct": 77.84395494997555, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7265596682648152, "attention_level": "Critical attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "hs_code": "720230", "hs_description": "Ferro-alloys: ferro-silico-manganese", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 22463074.04782399, "current_below_peak_pct": 23.908823240455078, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.783924876775389, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "hs_code": "260800", "hs_description": "Zinc ores and concentrates", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 17483382.797232714, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 3.1614375232597594, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "hs_code": "230630", "hs_description": "Oil-cake and other solid residues: whether or not ground or in the form of pellets, resulting from the extraction of sunflower seed oils", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 17634304.8553863, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 2.5003894393041652, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "hs_code": "170490", "hs_description": "Sugar confectionery: (excluding chewing gum, including white chocolate), not containing cocoa", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 82398257.1452146, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.343871332922348, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "hs_code": "240120", "hs_description": "Tobacco: partly or wholly stemmed or stripped", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 98760131.24262589, "current_below_peak_pct": 48.46230619914099, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.5902416549279377, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "hs_code": "520100", "hs_description": "Cotton: not carded or combed", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 13724315.384375859, "current_below_peak_pct": 89.72811713583421, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.5716228700928062, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] } ], "accessProfile": { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "distance_km": 1195, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 1, "shares_ethnic_language": 1, "shared_religion": 0, "shared_legal_system": 1, "shared_colonial_history": 0, "has_fta": 1, "rta_coverage_ratio": 1, "exporter_is_wto": 1, "importer_is_wto": 1, "exporter_is_eu": 0, "importer_is_eu": 0, "importer_gdp_million_usd": 419946.428126, "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 6994.21165355662, "importer_population": 60041.996, "importer_biz_entry_days": 40, "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 0.2, "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 21203.05908, "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 1120.6302297341065, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 8.626982093734, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 11.331475398787877, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 5.451376210753535, "tariff_advantage_pp": 5.880099188034341 }, "sourceAttribution": { "publisher": "OECD", "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D", "year": 2025, "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)", "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/", "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0", "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/", "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions", "accessed": "2026-08-29", "supportingSources": [ { "publisher": "CEPII", "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows", "release": "202601", "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.", "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html", "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37", "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf", "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence", "accessed": "2026-08-29" } ] }, "links": { "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZMB-ZAF/risk", "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZMB-ZAF/risk/index.html", "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZMB-ZAF/risk/index.md", "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZMB-ZAF/risk/index.json", "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZMB-ZAF/risk/index.ld.json", "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/", "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/", "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources", "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology", "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors", "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact", "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" } }