{ "template": "Corridor pair risk profile", "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile", "source": "api", "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:13.336Z", "seo": { "title": "Zambia exports to Mozambique: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks", "description": "Understand reported exports from Zambia to Mozambique, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning." }, "publisher": { "name": "Yugalinks", "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com", "email": "support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" }, "exporter": { "iso3": "ZMB", "country_name": "Zambia" }, "importer": { "iso3": "MOZ", "country_name": "Mozambique" }, "latestYear": 2024, "risk": { "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "MOZ", "all_history_lane_count": 71, "current_lane_count": 31, "current_product_count": 31, "first_observed_last_year": 1996, "latest_data_year": 2024, "current_trade_usd": 22013210.396425527, "attention_trade_usd": 15481931.238498094, "critical_trade_usd": 0, "high_volatility_trade_usd": 11473529.92326687, "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 1365371.947691481, "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0, "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 21918945.202842627, "access_friction_trade_usd": 0, "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0, "critical_lane_count": 0, "high_attention_lane_count": 4, "high_volatility_lane_count": 19, "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 10, "declining_demand_lane_count": 0, "concentrated_market_lane_count": 29, "access_friction_lane_count": 0, "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 0.9289208519628184, "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 10.311121860113756, "product_concentration_hhi": 1392.9765675821686, "top1_product_share_pct": 24.328694700864094, "top3_product_share_pct": 58.072104793458955, "top_product_hs6": "721420", "top_product_trade_usd": 5355526.751205241, "top_product_description": "Iron or non-alloy steel: bars and rods, hot-rolled, hot-drawn or hot-extruded, containing indentations, ribs, grooves or other deformations produced during the rolling process or twisted after rolling", "top_attention_product_hs6": "721420", "top_attention_product_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "distance_km": 1251.7354736328125, "shares_land_border": 1, "shares_official_language": 0, "common_spoken_language_score": 0, "has_reported_fta": 1, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 7.723183425272724, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 8.242294937777773, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 0.0014336916666666667, "tariff_advantage_pp": 8.240861246111107, "buyer_biz_entry_days": 17, "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null, "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 16095.828897, "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 500, "buyer_population_latest": 32163.044, "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 7.954483087134578, "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 4.817694878255674, "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 2.9926132343610856, "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 35.316, "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 8.148, "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient", "attention_trade_share_pct": 70.33018337485217, "critical_trade_share_pct": 0, "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_markets" ], "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Buyer-market concentration is the largest observed corridor exposure", "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 16095.828897, "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 500, "buyer_population_2024": 32163.044 }, "history": [ { "year": 1995, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "MOZ", "export_value_usd": 321886.59875785705, "yoy_growth_pct": null, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1996, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "MOZ", "export_value_usd": 2129454.857038126, "yoy_growth_pct": 561.5543689161267, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1997, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "MOZ", "export_value_usd": 184136.14439697374, "yoy_growth_pct": -91.35289748977867, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1998, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "MOZ", "export_value_usd": 884703.7527256114, "yoy_growth_pct": 380.4617559593865, "cagr_3y_pct": 40.07640627376225 }, { "year": 1999, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "MOZ", "export_value_usd": 909205.1340484687, "yoy_growth_pct": 2.7694447149537726, "cagr_3y_pct": -24.699507988157965 }, { "year": 2000, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "MOZ", "export_value_usd": 449622.1830054015, "yoy_growth_pct": -50.54777341573693, "cagr_3y_pct": 34.65926144544802 }, { "year": 2001, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "MOZ", "export_value_usd": 30674.365694973214, "yoy_growth_pct": -93.17774637142297, "cagr_3y_pct": -67.3918689949245 }, { "year": 2002, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "MOZ", "export_value_usd": 150495.05307858463, "yoy_growth_pct": 390.62156516979627, "cagr_3y_pct": -45.09396089810706 }, { "year": 2003, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "MOZ", "export_value_usd": 962461.6153268284, "yoy_growth_pct": 539.5304002612337, "cagr_3y_pct": 28.877933200565153 }, { "year": 2004, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "MOZ", "export_value_usd": 1495590.7511889106, "yoy_growth_pct": 55.39224914242886, "cagr_3y_pct": 265.32471989440126 }, { "year": 2005, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "MOZ", "export_value_usd": 1213588.788839478, "yoy_growth_pct": -18.855556717321022, "cagr_3y_pct": 100.53173457950138 }, { "year": 2006, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "MOZ", "export_value_usd": 1300279.289955802, "yoy_growth_pct": 7.1433175646937075, "cagr_3y_pct": 10.548047323578436 }, { "year": 2007, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "MOZ", "export_value_usd": 1117545.7625800846, "yoy_growth_pct": -14.05340597110708, "cagr_3y_pct": -9.256084403133968 }, { "year": 2008, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "MOZ", "export_value_usd": 6560960.581569901, "yoy_growth_pct": 487.0865248884817, "cagr_3y_pct": 75.50868983599858 }, { "year": 2009, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "MOZ", "export_value_usd": 3027433.2838672064, "yoy_growth_pct": -53.8568591256068, "cagr_3y_pct": 32.53969858927284 }, { "year": 2010, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "MOZ", "export_value_usd": 2897232.900643779, "yoy_growth_pct": -4.300685465712761, "cagr_3y_pct": 37.374470262859006 }, { "year": 2011, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "MOZ", "export_value_usd": 17774698.973815776, "yoy_growth_pct": 513.5060446768416, "cagr_3y_pct": 39.404975777030174 }, { "year": 2012, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "MOZ", "export_value_usd": 38133538.982470214, "yoy_growth_pct": 114.53831110527051, "cagr_3y_pct": 132.67202886892022 }, { "year": 2013, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "MOZ", "export_value_usd": 18557373.188253753, "yoy_growth_pct": -51.335822261908405, "cagr_3y_pct": 85.71388036414855 }, { "year": 2014, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "MOZ", "export_value_usd": 32944781.512962196, "yoy_growth_pct": 77.5293366079162, "cagr_3y_pct": 22.836695793426554 }, { "year": 2015, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "MOZ", "export_value_usd": 11160772.014895212, "yoy_growth_pct": -66.12279243526329, "cagr_3y_pct": -33.60596827549014 }, { "year": 2016, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "MOZ", "export_value_usd": 13068212.071578218, "yoy_growth_pct": 17.090574506291567, "cagr_3y_pct": -11.032123671447192 }, { "year": 2017, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "MOZ", "export_value_usd": 13157627.769457638, "yoy_growth_pct": 0.684222886724406, "cagr_3y_pct": -26.3571951127069 }, { "year": 2018, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "MOZ", "export_value_usd": 10828164.818582619, "yoy_growth_pct": -17.70427763796696, "cagr_3y_pct": -1.003416457748263 }, { "year": 2019, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "MOZ", "export_value_usd": 15839255.353135714, "yoy_growth_pct": 46.278299402622466, "cagr_3y_pct": 6.620208854867138 }, { "year": 2020, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "MOZ", "export_value_usd": 19066747.36507799, "yoy_growth_pct": 20.376538795451182, "cagr_3y_pct": 13.161754440139873 }, { "year": 2021, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "MOZ", "export_value_usd": 24231837.202068374, "yoy_growth_pct": 27.089517357588665, "cagr_3y_pct": 30.80082853956774 }, { "year": 2022, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "MOZ", "export_value_usd": 30186716.974282358, "yoy_growth_pct": 24.574611171891213, "cagr_3y_pct": 23.982495690129248 }, { "year": 2023, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "MOZ", "export_value_usd": 32877355.027606204, "yoy_growth_pct": 8.913317919322395, "cagr_3y_pct": 19.91497458553613 }, { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "MOZ", "export_value_usd": 34741166.89045428, "yoy_growth_pct": 5.66898359458381, "cagr_3y_pct": 12.759381825964455 } ], "riskLanes": [ { "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "MOZ", "hs_code": "721420", "hs_description": "Iron or non-alloy steel: bars and rods, hot-rolled, hot-drawn or hot-extruded, containing indentations, ribs, grooves or other deformations produced during the rolling process or twisted after rolling", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 74173315.85790573, "current_below_peak_pct": 3.3833447514541466, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6857980933928486, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "MOZ", "hs_code": "340220", "hs_description": "Washing and cleaning preparations: surface-active, whether or not containing soap (excluding those of heading no. 3401), put up for retail sale", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 11781745.942733193, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.307245845464493, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "MOZ", "hs_code": "310530", "hs_description": "Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: diammonium hydrogenorthophosphate (diammonium phosphate)", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 33598948.41502057, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "limited_history" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "MOZ", "hs_code": "040711", "hs_description": "Birds' eggs, in shell: fresh, fertilised eggs for incubation, of fowls of the species Gallus domesticus (domestic hens)", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 10539808.676820152, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.3510534014847153, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "MOZ", "hs_code": "843149", "hs_description": "Machinery: parts of machines handling earth, minerals or ores and n.e.c. in heading no. 8431", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 47569230.57862638, "current_below_peak_pct": 39.015793203184515, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9851443028250271, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "MOZ", "hs_code": "870120", "hs_description": "Tractors: road, for semi-trailers", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 69973972.53323013, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.1628525806018868, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "MOZ", "hs_code": "170490", "hs_description": "Sugar confectionery: (excluding chewing gum, including white chocolate), not containing cocoa", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 15207996.693443257, "current_below_peak_pct": 48.367933127934855, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.7329778812352399, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "MOZ", "hs_code": "220299", "hs_description": "Non-alcoholic beverages: other than non-alcoholic beer, n.e.c. in item no. 2202.10, not including fruit, nut or vegetable juices of heading no. 2009", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 26023128.788503416, "current_below_peak_pct": 44.39809292902488, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.1002216460529728, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "MOZ", "hs_code": "730661", "hs_description": "Iron or steel (excluding cast iron): tubes, pipes and hollow profiles (not seamless), welded, of square or rectangular cross-section, n.e.c. in chapter 73", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 10475016.714517426, "current_below_peak_pct": 63.695658930902475, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.1489426360163553, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "MOZ", "hs_code": "854449", "hs_description": "Insulated electric conductors: for a voltage not exceeding 80 volts, not fitted with connectors", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 41713155.29118928, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.313440436937886, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] } ], "accessProfile": { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "MOZ", "distance_km": 1246, "shares_land_border": 1, "shares_official_language": 0, "shares_ethnic_language": 0, "shared_religion": 0, "shared_legal_system": 0, "shared_colonial_history": 0, "has_fta": 1, "rta_coverage_ratio": 1, "exporter_is_wto": 1, "importer_is_wto": 1, "exporter_is_eu": 0, "importer_is_eu": 0, "importer_gdp_million_usd": 16095.828897000001, "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 500.4448240968734, "importer_population": 32163.044, "importer_biz_entry_days": 17, "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 106.9, "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 21203.05908, "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 1120.6302297341065, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 7.723183425272724, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 8.242294937777773, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 0.0014336916666666667, "tariff_advantage_pp": 8.240861246111107 }, "sourceAttribution": { "publisher": "OECD", "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D", "year": 2025, "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)", "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/", "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0", "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/", "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions", "accessed": "2026-08-29", "supportingSources": [ { "publisher": "CEPII", "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows", "release": "202601", "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.", "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html", "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37", "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf", "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence", "accessed": "2026-08-29" } ] }, "links": { "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZMB-MOZ/risk", "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZMB-MOZ/risk/index.html", "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZMB-MOZ/risk/index.md", "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZMB-MOZ/risk/index.json", "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZMB-MOZ/risk/index.ld.json", "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/", "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/", "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources", "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology", "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors", "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact", "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" } }