{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:13.315Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "Zambia exports to Botswana: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from Zambia to Botswana, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "ZMB",
    "country_name": "Zambia"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "BWA",
    "country_name": "Botswana"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "ZMB",
    "importer_iso3": "BWA",
    "all_history_lane_count": 23,
    "current_lane_count": 18,
    "current_product_count": 18,
    "first_observed_last_year": 2003,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 84282867.09710689,
    "attention_trade_usd": 82082124.71026713,
    "critical_trade_usd": 0,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 65753699.28101555,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 1091344.8822572478,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 84236042.32654946,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 0,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0,
    "critical_lane_count": 0,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 4,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 15,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 8,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 0,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 17,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 0,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 1.6147441332895012,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 30.332055666443633,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 5523.62744577248,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 71.00173814757018,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 95.9162627627213,
    "top_product_hs6": "271600",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 59842300.59955242,
    "top_product_description": "Electrical energy",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "271600",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
    "distance_km": 1061.9307861328125,
    "shares_land_border": 1,
    "shares_official_language": 1,
    "common_spoken_language_score": null,
    "has_reported_fta": 1,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": null,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": null,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": 48,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 17613.846473,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 7348,
    "buyer_population_latest": 2397.24,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 3.0129069649398543,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 1.4194113162523392,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 1.571193944045457,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 32.758,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 32.414,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 97.38886150573856,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 0,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "high_volatility",
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "concentrated_product_mix",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets"
    ],
    "attention_level": "High attention",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Buyer-market concentration is the largest observed corridor exposure",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 17613.846473,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 7348,
    "buyer_population_2024": 2397.24
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZMB",
      "importer_iso3": "BWA",
      "export_value_usd": 2345610.4577115905,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZMB",
      "importer_iso3": "BWA",
      "export_value_usd": 3202707.750874162,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 36.54047884825546,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZMB",
      "importer_iso3": "BWA",
      "export_value_usd": 8540032.993442433,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 166.65039890422335,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZMB",
      "importer_iso3": "BWA",
      "export_value_usd": 3540389.256608013,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -58.543611490417625,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 14.709232766302605
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZMB",
      "importer_iso3": "BWA",
      "export_value_usd": 2617551.157630438,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -26.0660066475778,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -6.504087949972881
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZMB",
      "importer_iso3": "BWA",
      "export_value_usd": 24722297.35005373,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 844.4819169239777,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 42.52020084415386
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZMB",
      "importer_iso3": "BWA",
      "export_value_usd": 5930419.076108679,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -76.01186090379343,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 18.762169713683186
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZMB",
      "importer_iso3": "BWA",
      "export_value_usd": 11861371.882113075,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 100.00899986811835,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 65.4804073603388
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZMB",
      "importer_iso3": "BWA",
      "export_value_usd": 8339642.019671543,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -29.690746546377945,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -30.38766613649473
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZMB",
      "importer_iso3": "BWA",
      "export_value_usd": 9585092.233763883,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 14.934096825194331,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 17.355551147095106
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZMB",
      "importer_iso3": "BWA",
      "export_value_usd": 15550904.410003318,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 62.24052967612159,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 9.447768136544443
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZMB",
      "importer_iso3": "BWA",
      "export_value_usd": 22594147.992161743,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 45.29153672649271,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 39.406445316564096
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZMB",
      "importer_iso3": "BWA",
      "export_value_usd": 43313188.649598874,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 91.7009159390515,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 65.32604896251905
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZMB",
      "importer_iso3": "BWA",
      "export_value_usd": 21078135.7652811,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -51.33552522350187,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 10.668880112532996
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZMB",
      "importer_iso3": "BWA",
      "export_value_usd": 35645405.29114593,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 69.11080604129774,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 16.413280928255137
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZMB",
      "importer_iso3": "BWA",
      "export_value_usd": 34348338.31315477,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -3.638805527379818,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -7.438896207341184
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZMB",
      "importer_iso3": "BWA",
      "export_value_usd": 24091287.581758104,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -29.861854270453627,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 4.554469983225462
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZMB",
      "importer_iso3": "BWA",
      "export_value_usd": 22081382.11006296,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -8.34287277039124,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -14.753956367157283
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZMB",
      "importer_iso3": "BWA",
      "export_value_usd": 23669059.52088683,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 7.1901179143144756,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -11.673350495440015
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZMB",
      "importer_iso3": "BWA",
      "export_value_usd": 67138119.0833725,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 183.65351409136585,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 40.72450165726169
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZMB",
      "importer_iso3": "BWA",
      "export_value_usd": 23334950.73042049,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -65.243365395085,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 1.857624875820707
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZMB",
      "importer_iso3": "BWA",
      "export_value_usd": 58253457.19581025,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 149.64036937034723,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 35.014444627732445
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZMB",
      "importer_iso3": "BWA",
      "export_value_usd": 61589025.17429373,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 5.725957117483116,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -2.8346573110572093
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZMB",
      "importer_iso3": "BWA",
      "export_value_usd": 147292533.51421726,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 139.15386401617346,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 84.80963729747214
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZMB",
      "importer_iso3": "BWA",
      "export_value_usd": 103528724.76078323,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -29.712170542038898,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 21.128513231770498
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ZMB",
      "importer_iso3": "BWA",
      "hs_code": "271600",
      "hs_description": "Electrical energy",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 157471086.9991485,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 32.0570675899473,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.8975029839156838,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ZMB",
      "importer_iso3": "BWA",
      "hs_code": "740811",
      "hs_description": "Copper: wire, of refined copper, of which the maximum cross-sectional dimension exceeds 6mm",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 18660299.29527059,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 26.772563870487897,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7677680434320449,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ZMB",
      "importer_iso3": "BWA",
      "hs_code": "690740",
      "hs_description": "Finishing ceramics",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 11344441.530374516,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.1408060791167625,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ZMB",
      "importer_iso3": "BWA",
      "hs_code": "854449",
      "hs_description": "Insulated electric conductors: for a voltage not exceeding 80 volts, not fitted with connectors",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 45546778.67244661,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 44.391065039127284,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.2601935175656813,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ZMB",
      "importer_iso3": "BWA",
      "hs_code": "230400",
      "hs_description": "Oil-cake and other solid residues: whether or not ground or in the form of pellets, resulting from the extraction of soya-bean oil",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 20230201.05759047,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 90.07317214960923,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 2.3328844871775716,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ZMB",
      "importer_iso3": "BWA",
      "hs_code": "230990",
      "hs_description": "Dog or cat food: (not put up for retail sale), used in animal feeding",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 17243531.49178236,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.5662187108275665,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ZMB",
      "importer_iso3": "BWA",
      "hs_code": "843149",
      "hs_description": "Machinery: parts of machines handling earth, minerals or ores and n.e.c. in heading no. 8431",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 51964886.58693762,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.536921337445438,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ZMB",
      "importer_iso3": "BWA",
      "hs_code": "170490",
      "hs_description": "Sugar confectionery: (excluding chewing gum, including white chocolate), not containing cocoa",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 14098779.970720794,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9136371772529959,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ZMB",
      "importer_iso3": "BWA",
      "hs_code": "843143",
      "hs_description": "Boring or sinking machinery: parts of the machinery of item no. 8430.41 or 8430.41",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 16242541.844724359,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 53.2329980987765,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.4027939440362465,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ZMB",
      "importer_iso3": "BWA",
      "hs_code": "842959",
      "hs_description": "Mechanical shovels, excavators and shovel loaders: n.e.c. in item no. 8429.50",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 13268676.957836784,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 84.93209453289857,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.3641192889916023,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "ZMB",
    "importer_iso3": "BWA",
    "distance_km": 1053,
    "shares_land_border": 1,
    "shares_official_language": 1,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 1,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 1,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 1,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": 1,
    "exporter_is_wto": 1,
    "importer_is_wto": 1,
    "exporter_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 17613.846473,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 7347.552382323007,
    "importer_population": 2397.24,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 48,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 0.6,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 21203.05908,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 1120.6302297341065,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": null,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": null,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZMB-BWA/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZMB-BWA/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZMB-BWA/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZMB-BWA/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZMB-BWA/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}