{ "template": "Corridor pair risk profile", "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile", "source": "api", "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:13.292Z", "seo": { "title": "Zambia exports to the United Arab Emirates: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks", "description": "Understand reported exports from Zambia to the United Arab Emirates, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning." }, "publisher": { "name": "Yugalinks", "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com", "email": "support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" }, "exporter": { "iso3": "ZMB", "country_name": "Zambia" }, "importer": { "iso3": "ARE", "country_name": "United Arab Emirates" }, "latestYear": 2024, "risk": { "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ARE", "all_history_lane_count": 106, "current_lane_count": 22, "current_product_count": 22, "first_observed_last_year": 1996, "latest_data_year": 2024, "current_trade_usd": 1553765338.8870344, "attention_trade_usd": 115152397.23810449, "critical_trade_usd": 111084443.01771265, "high_volatility_trade_usd": 1548788161.3057034, "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 113748354.17407979, "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0, "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 115780800.54821877, "access_friction_trade_usd": 0, "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0, "critical_lane_count": 1, "high_attention_lane_count": 2, "high_volatility_lane_count": 12, "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 7, "declining_demand_lane_count": 0, "concentrated_market_lane_count": 11, "access_friction_lane_count": 0, "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 1.8954162880789185, "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 21.95137085713239, "product_concentration_hhi": 8237.58741654171, "top1_product_share_pct": 90.47080735105814, "top3_product_share_pct": 98.65665351373153, "top_product_hs6": "710812", "top_product_trade_usd": 1405704046.4320047, "top_product_description": "Metals: gold, non-monetary, unwrought (but not powder)", "top_attention_product_hs6": "740311", "top_attention_product_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "distance_km": 5274.5029296875, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "common_spoken_language_score": 0, "has_reported_fta": 0, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 5.214629114545452, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 5.214629114545452, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null, "tariff_advantage_pp": null, "buyer_biz_entry_days": 3.8, "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null, "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 358868.765175, "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 36285, "buyer_population_latest": 9991.083, "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 4.943547237156554, "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 1.819807045643529, "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 3.0679101465127756, "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 26.395999999999997, "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 61.2, "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient", "attention_trade_share_pct": 7.411183294936184, "critical_trade_share_pct": 7.149370644172221, "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_product_mix", "concentrated_buyer_markets" ], "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Volatile products account for the largest observed corridor exposure", "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 358868.765175, "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 36285, "buyer_population_2024": 9991.083 }, "history": [ { "year": 1995, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ARE", "export_value_usd": 61448.999999999985, "yoy_growth_pct": null, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1996, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ARE", "export_value_usd": 4149744.999999999, "yoy_growth_pct": 6653.153021204576, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1997, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ARE", "export_value_usd": 162289474.6739009, "yoy_growth_pct": 3810.830055193775, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1998, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ARE", "export_value_usd": 3812.6334675353096, "yoy_growth_pct": -99.99765072043323, "cagr_3y_pct": -60.411405930450776 }, { "year": 1999, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ARE", "export_value_usd": 195870.46784418117, "yoy_growth_pct": 5037.406192124792, "cagr_3y_pct": -63.86046862040931 }, { "year": 2000, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ARE", "export_value_usd": 260421.18280039076, "yoy_growth_pct": 32.95581802947494, "cagr_3y_pct": -88.2925588277853 }, { "year": 2001, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ARE", "export_value_usd": 2085825.0191175083, "yoy_growth_pct": 700.9429174262926, "cagr_3y_pct": 717.8699885640466 }, { "year": 2002, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ARE", "export_value_usd": 6426831.825832387, "yoy_growth_pct": 208.11941399339025, "cagr_3y_pct": 220.14200337910682 }, { "year": 2003, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ARE", "export_value_usd": 5967876.5585251115, "yoy_growth_pct": -7.141236611521773, "cagr_3y_pct": 184.04109276205872 }, { "year": 2004, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ARE", "export_value_usd": 3954364.38590432, "yoy_growth_pct": -33.73917259974972, "cagr_3y_pct": 23.765501103186825 }, { "year": 2005, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ARE", "export_value_usd": 14984989.065560758, "yoy_growth_pct": 278.9481090558086, "cagr_3y_pct": 32.60294360065312 }, { "year": 2006, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ARE", "export_value_usd": 70018804.17911151, "yoy_growth_pct": 367.25962810364797, "cagr_3y_pct": 127.2296254588794 }, { "year": 2007, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ARE", "export_value_usd": 35597794.88772556, "yoy_growth_pct": -49.159664600005634, "cagr_3y_pct": 108.02497097446731 }, { "year": 2008, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ARE", "export_value_usd": 71473256.62164484, "yoy_growth_pct": 100.7800113660677, "cagr_3y_pct": 68.33033206287702 }, { "year": 2009, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ARE", "export_value_usd": 175840728.0669343, "yoy_growth_pct": 146.02310903192142, "cagr_3y_pct": 35.92570513172628 }, { "year": 2010, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ARE", "export_value_usd": 510828439.00046396, "yoy_growth_pct": 190.5063261601235, "cagr_3y_pct": 143.00618292041437 }, { "year": 2011, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ARE", "export_value_usd": 763190150.0176271, "yoy_growth_pct": 49.402439596150586, "cagr_3y_pct": 120.20629432489515 }, { "year": 2012, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ARE", "export_value_usd": 1042585927.1070126, "yoy_growth_pct": 36.608933839480564, "cagr_3y_pct": 80.99397927823391 }, { "year": 2013, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ARE", "export_value_usd": 736416473.5469947, "yoy_growth_pct": -29.366352029092013, "cagr_3y_pct": 12.966448626018835 }, { "year": 2014, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ARE", "export_value_usd": 627438669.6052549, "yoy_growth_pct": -14.79839300943956, "cagr_3y_pct": -6.320152549795532 }, { "year": 2015, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ARE", "export_value_usd": 526106971.4761893, "yoy_growth_pct": -16.150056258537127, "cagr_3y_pct": -20.386374897616555 }, { "year": 2016, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ARE", "export_value_usd": 291406585.2049001, "yoy_growth_pct": -44.610772902847074, "cagr_3y_pct": -26.58379091242238 }, { "year": 2017, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ARE", "export_value_usd": 362196886.9509339, "yoy_growth_pct": 24.292622521298956, "cagr_3y_pct": -16.73589643829365 }, { "year": 2018, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ARE", "export_value_usd": 334929752.5637121, "yoy_growth_pct": -7.528263044103845, "cagr_3y_pct": -13.974628399198997 }, { "year": 2019, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ARE", "export_value_usd": 265633648.65542343, "yoy_growth_pct": -20.68974266330872, "cagr_3y_pct": -3.0395605187153008 }, { "year": 2020, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ARE", "export_value_usd": 595976618.7338631, "yoy_growth_pct": 124.3603631356795, "cagr_3y_pct": 18.057840857093343 }, { "year": 2021, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ARE", "export_value_usd": 782519039.0450027, "yoy_growth_pct": 31.3002917308139, "cagr_3y_pct": 32.69270926947287 }, { "year": 2022, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ARE", "export_value_usd": 1689850786.088809, "yoy_growth_pct": 115.95011773146462, "cagr_3y_pct": 85.29132637558656 }, { "year": 2023, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ARE", "export_value_usd": 1776222876.114609, "yoy_growth_pct": 5.111225839395539, "cagr_3y_pct": 43.90948280857423 }, { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ARE", "export_value_usd": 1560173470.1443226, "yoy_growth_pct": -12.163417602349691, "cagr_3y_pct": 25.86142908017979 } ], "riskLanes": [ { "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ARE", "hs_code": "710812", "hs_description": "Metals: gold, non-monetary, unwrought (but not powder)", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 80031157896.70036, "current_below_peak_pct": 17.08475768586708, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.9800989165411356, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ARE", "hs_code": "740311", "hs_description": "Copper: refined, unwrought, cathodes and sections of cathodes", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 3387494447.9233227, "current_below_peak_pct": 88.13492434391162, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0189119138427314, "attention_level": "Critical attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ARE", "hs_code": "710310", "hs_description": "Stones: precious (other than diamonds) and semi-precious stones, unworked or simply sawn or roughly shaped, not strung, mounted or set", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 37350018.12318616, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.2944753921659364, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ARE", "hs_code": "710391", "hs_description": "Stones: rubies, sapphires and emeralds, worked (other than simply sawn or roughly shaped), not strung, mounted or set", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 142810757.5892643, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.4670304745514406, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ARE", "hs_code": "240120", "hs_description": "Tobacco: partly or wholly stemmed or stripped", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 995292733.0545421, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.2376223637264432, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ARE", "hs_code": "720230", "hs_description": "Ferro-alloys: ferro-silico-manganese", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 79208212.91326325, "current_below_peak_pct": 29.660951754480745, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.5455131056970219, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ARE", "hs_code": "710399", "hs_description": "Stones: precious (other than diamonds) and semi-precious stones, (other than rubies, sapphires and emeralds), worked other than simply sawn or roughly shaped, not strung, mounted or set", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 27494457.86290834, "current_below_peak_pct": 75.57449302036007, "lane_volatility_cv": 2.657465079168592, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ARE", "hs_code": "760120", "hs_description": "Aluminium: unwrought, alloys", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 74563910.78242257, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7967142756749532, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "limited_history" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ARE", "hs_code": "381590", "hs_description": "Reaction initiators, reaction accelerators and catalytic preparations, unsupported, n.e.s. or included", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 78048542.36222225, "current_below_peak_pct": 42.807132643030236, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7818145737052508, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "limited_history" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ARE", "hs_code": "780199", "hs_description": "Lead: unwrought, unrefined, not containing by weight antimony as the principal other element", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 31012052.208895378, "current_below_peak_pct": 71.44883357526804, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7951260657633098, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] } ], "accessProfile": { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "ZMB", "importer_iso3": "ARE", "distance_km": 5372, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "shares_ethnic_language": 0, "shared_religion": 0, "shared_legal_system": 1, "shared_colonial_history": 0, "has_fta": 0, "rta_coverage_ratio": null, "exporter_is_wto": 1, "importer_is_wto": 1, "exporter_is_eu": 0, "importer_is_eu": 0, "importer_gdp_million_usd": 358868.765175, "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 35918.90540545004, "importer_population": 9991.083, "importer_biz_entry_days": 3.8, "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 17.2, "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 21203.05908, "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 1120.6302297341065, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 5.214629114545452, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 5.214629114545452, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null, "tariff_advantage_pp": null }, "sourceAttribution": { "publisher": "OECD", "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D", "year": 2025, "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)", "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/", "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0", "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/", "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions", "accessed": "2026-08-29", "supportingSources": [ { "publisher": "CEPII", "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows", "release": "202601", "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.", "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html", "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37", "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf", "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence", "accessed": "2026-08-29" } ] }, "links": { "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZMB-ARE/risk", "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZMB-ARE/risk/index.html", "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZMB-ARE/risk/index.md", "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZMB-ARE/risk/index.json", "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZMB-ARE/risk/index.ld.json", "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/", "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/", "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources", "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology", "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors", "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact", "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" } }