{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:13.306Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "South Africa exports to Zimbabwe: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from South Africa to Zimbabwe, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "ZAF",
    "country_name": "South Africa"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "ZWE",
    "country_name": "Zimbabwe"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
    "importer_iso3": "ZWE",
    "all_history_lane_count": 136,
    "current_lane_count": 133,
    "current_product_count": 133,
    "first_observed_last_year": 2011,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 2385024672.7915587,
    "attention_trade_usd": 2006037831.169891,
    "critical_trade_usd": 12808200.579047507,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 1299649721.0760262,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 281535911.7846202,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 2213336098.545143,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 0,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0,
    "critical_lane_count": 1,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 92,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 42,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 40,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 0,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 120,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 0,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 1.0891714179872214,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 16.362111456602587,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 571.1390564432976,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 21.22850036359537,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 29.323837825285803,
    "top_product_hs6": "100590",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 506304971.33539534,
    "top_product_description": "Cereals: maize (corn), other than seed",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "100590",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
    "distance_km": 2186.205810546875,
    "shares_land_border": 1,
    "shares_official_language": 1,
    "common_spoken_language_score": 0.12179999053478241,
    "has_reported_fta": 1,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 30.76144048474747,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 33.586451310303026,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 0.7897666462424239,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 32.79668466406061,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": 27,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 26217.726717,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 1737,
    "buyer_population_latest": 15092.171,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 4.484738370653396,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 2.7134131471191925,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 1.7245315575260545,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 11.168,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": -4.618,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 84.10973077364096,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 0.5370259152940381,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "high_volatility",
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets"
    ],
    "attention_level": "High attention",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Buyer-market concentration is the largest observed corridor exposure",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 26217.726717,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 1737,
    "buyer_population_2024": 15092.171
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "ZWE",
      "export_value_usd": 780408702.3475536,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "ZWE",
      "export_value_usd": 637853272.8119442,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -18.266765748099335,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "ZWE",
      "export_value_usd": 895610012.3419778,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 40.41003636992029,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "ZWE",
      "export_value_usd": 695281794.4252008,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -22.367795709756322,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -3.7768467445508547
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "ZWE",
      "export_value_usd": 1121120400.3188276,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 61.246908707810135,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 20.682367757085384
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "ZWE",
      "export_value_usd": 1087912617.7122877,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -2.9620175136494065,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 6.698510780254385
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "ZWE",
      "export_value_usd": 1016775942.4975348,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -6.538822517229592,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 13.506692300609767
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "ZWE",
      "export_value_usd": 1268296686.6279056,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 24.73708647281263,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 4.1972365113661425
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "ZWE",
      "export_value_usd": 1336713027.2623444,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 5.394348290567663,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 7.106227360020356
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "ZWE",
      "export_value_usd": 3140330199.575091,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 134.92927318937296,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 45.6297211369483
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "ZWE",
      "export_value_usd": 2176251184.0196,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -30.699924985147664,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 19.71890083731258
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "ZWE",
      "export_value_usd": 3192761604.1604724,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 46.70924145177708,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 33.672715451205114
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "ZWE",
      "export_value_usd": 2567371086.123439,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -19.58776117897716,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -6.494366540539442
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "ZWE",
      "export_value_usd": 2709373061.935162,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 5.531026526677008,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 7.577123956468923
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "ZWE",
      "export_value_usd": 2333702941.0630765,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -13.865573779779305,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -9.920418359874517
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "ZWE",
      "export_value_usd": 2099483612.1571858,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -10.03638144275536,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -6.486434879983682
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "ZWE",
      "export_value_usd": 2047976575.568655,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -2.4533192967202133,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -8.906918815677855
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "ZWE",
      "export_value_usd": 2020055161.536597,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -1.3633658883185795,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -4.697150691983953
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "ZWE",
      "export_value_usd": 2349900739.31701,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 16.3285431042145,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 3.8274870735925948
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "ZWE",
      "export_value_usd": 1952997246.5637817,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -16.890223749135323,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -1.5704388759608334
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "ZWE",
      "export_value_usd": 2333076568.849476,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 19.461334262218145,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 4.919268592887249
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "ZWE",
      "export_value_usd": 2999381694.919673,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 28.559076670114436,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 8.474437376647593
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "ZWE",
      "export_value_usd": 3292121281.2159915,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 9.759997761944007,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 19.012176699678186
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "ZWE",
      "export_value_usd": 3435344966.8962,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 4.350498461202101,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 13.766340213533269
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "ZWE",
      "export_value_usd": 3777444110.8949394,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 9.958218091495553,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 7.991300253864386
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "ZWE",
      "hs_code": "100590",
      "hs_description": "Cereals: maize (corn), other than seed",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 510579422.915245,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.4554991550967138,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "ZWE",
      "hs_code": "870421",
      "hs_description": "Vehicles: compression-ignition internal combustion piston engine (diesel or semi-diesel), for transport of goods, (of a gvw not exceeding 5 tonnes), n.e.c. in item no 8704.1",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 132672389.8777903,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 3.9306716237628443,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.5220655539132876,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "ZWE",
      "hs_code": "271600",
      "hs_description": "Electrical energy",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 205682481.3678426,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 27.302299765035336,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.1842925173219532,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "ZWE",
      "hs_code": "271113",
      "hs_description": "Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons: liquefied, butanes",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 95876588.8944204,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.8147251437819867,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "ZWE",
      "hs_code": "271012",
      "hs_description": "",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 392581150.10461354,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 57.112499249961004,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.5190801955588124,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "ZWE",
      "hs_code": "150710",
      "hs_description": "Vegetable oils: soya-bean oil and its fractions, crude, whether or not degummed, not chemically modified",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 177229227.27341446,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 8.56928549551311,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.1047615419354941,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "ZWE",
      "hs_code": "271019",
      "hs_description": "",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 664091131.7240174,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 24.78274057233754,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.5351279577622637,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "ZWE",
      "hs_code": "120190",
      "hs_description": "Soya beans: other than seed, whether or not broken",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 60276324.31698314,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 2.790298249039375,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "ZWE",
      "hs_code": "100199",
      "hs_description": "Cereals: wheat and meslin, other than durum wheat, other than seed",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 49166342.87748717,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 12.906527214224406,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.156304936653519,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "ZWE",
      "hs_code": "961900",
      "hs_description": "Sanitary towels (pads) and tampons, napkins and napkin liners for babies and similar articles, of any material",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 48312148.711199075,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.3162970469440725,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
    "importer_iso3": "ZWE",
    "distance_km": 978,
    "shares_land_border": 1,
    "shares_official_language": 1,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 1,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 1,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 1,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": 1,
    "exporter_is_wto": 1,
    "importer_is_wto": 1,
    "exporter_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 26217.726717,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 1737.1739769579872,
    "importer_population": 15092.171,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 27,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 76.6,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 419946.428126,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 6994.21165355662,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 30.76144048474747,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 33.586451310303026,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 0.7897666462424239,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 32.79668466406061
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZAF-ZWE/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZAF-ZWE/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZAF-ZWE/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZAF-ZWE/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZAF-ZWE/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}