{ "template": "Corridor pair risk profile", "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile", "source": "api", "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:13.300Z", "seo": { "title": "South Africa exports to Nepal: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks", "description": "Understand reported exports from South Africa to Nepal, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning." }, "publisher": { "name": "Yugalinks", "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com", "email": "support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" }, "exporter": { "iso3": "ZAF", "country_name": "South Africa" }, "importer": { "iso3": "NPL", "country_name": "Nepal" }, "latestYear": 2024, "risk": { "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "all_history_lane_count": 28, "current_lane_count": 7, "current_product_count": 7, "first_observed_last_year": 2001, "latest_data_year": 2024, "current_trade_usd": 21463342.72766738, "attention_trade_usd": 19959778.579077445, "critical_trade_usd": 19959778.579077445, "high_volatility_trade_usd": 425566.89218485466, "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 19959778.579077445, "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0, "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 21463342.72766738, "access_friction_trade_usd": 21463342.72766738, "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0, "critical_lane_count": 1, "high_attention_lane_count": 0, "high_volatility_lane_count": 2, "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 1, "declining_demand_lane_count": 0, "concentrated_market_lane_count": 7, "access_friction_lane_count": 7, "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 0.690090051791884, "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 69.63085860727949, "product_concentration_hhi": 8659.912040244602, "top1_product_share_pct": 92.99473447511156, "top3_product_share_pct": 97.06174697246637, "top_product_hs6": "270119", "top_product_trade_usd": 19959778.579077445, "top_product_description": "Coal: (other than anthracite and bituminous), whether or not pulverised but not agglomerated", "top_attention_product_hs6": "270119", "top_attention_product_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "distance_km": 9829.9736328125, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "common_spoken_language_score": 0, "has_reported_fta": 0, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 17.188381769090906, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 17.188381769090906, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null, "tariff_advantage_pp": null, "buyer_biz_entry_days": 22.5, "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null, "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 36288.830373000004, "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 1223, "buyer_population_latest": 29674.919, "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 4.652648953830973, "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 3.7645171101378105, "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 0.8559109302753942, "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 33.006, "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 10.022, "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient", "attention_trade_share_pct": 92.99473447511156, "critical_trade_share_pct": 92.99473447511156, "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_product_mix", "concentrated_buyer_markets", "market_access_friction" ], "attention_level": "Critical attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Buyer-market concentration is the largest observed corridor exposure", "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 36288.830373000004, "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 1223, "buyer_population_2024": 29674.919 }, "history": [ { "year": 2000, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "export_value_usd": 445061.20478522265, "yoy_growth_pct": null, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 2001, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "export_value_usd": 481996.815379588, "yoy_growth_pct": 8.298995777937934, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 2002, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "export_value_usd": 750200.418666411, "yoy_growth_pct": 55.64426874389283, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 2003, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "export_value_usd": 1691268.5150829619, "yoy_growth_pct": 125.44222490430421, "cagr_3y_pct": 56.05018035542329 }, { "year": 2004, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "export_value_usd": 3040595.1908413228, "yoy_growth_pct": 79.78193076527369, "cagr_3y_pct": 84.77284471791724 }, { "year": 2005, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "export_value_usd": 2043220.0034828398, "yoy_growth_pct": -32.801972138965084, "cagr_3y_pct": 39.65160880389011 }, { "year": 2006, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "export_value_usd": 1521599.358448927, "yoy_growth_pct": -25.529343102787106, "cagr_3y_pct": -3.4625289792092673 }, { "year": 2007, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "export_value_usd": 3098558.9083299697, "yoy_growth_pct": 103.63828961445859, "cagr_3y_pct": 0.631447020790632 }, { "year": 2008, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "export_value_usd": 1841603.3109255363, "yoy_growth_pct": -40.56581251449871, "cagr_3y_pct": -3.403738520709665 }, { "year": 2009, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "export_value_usd": 3670330.143090491, "yoy_growth_pct": 99.30080062931088, "cagr_3y_pct": 34.11219521457865 }, { "year": 2010, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "export_value_usd": 764979.7191960909, "yoy_growth_pct": -79.15774087417753, "cagr_3y_pct": -37.266903985847456 }, { "year": 2011, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "export_value_usd": 1993100.7602333205, "yoy_growth_pct": 160.54295430574933, "cagr_3y_pct": 2.6701955596425853 }, { "year": 2012, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "export_value_usd": 4091115.8140666005, "yoy_growth_pct": 105.26387304110396, "cagr_3y_pct": 3.6841124764962485 }, { "year": 2013, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "export_value_usd": 21156743.802249152, "yoy_growth_pct": 417.1387162765061, "cagr_3y_pct": 202.41242808663995 }, { "year": 2014, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "export_value_usd": 13428368.182071937, "yoy_growth_pct": -36.52913554379582, "cagr_3y_pct": 88.87073127737597 }, { "year": 2015, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "export_value_usd": 21809744.081554852, "yoy_growth_pct": 62.41544606047364, "cagr_3y_pct": 74.69062495687997 }, { "year": 2016, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "export_value_usd": 32692636.356042013, "yoy_growth_pct": 49.89922043006063, "cagr_3y_pct": 15.61132331785091 }, { "year": 2017, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "export_value_usd": 64392769.94260395, "yoy_growth_pct": 96.9641396959513, "cagr_3y_pct": 68.63120975771683 }, { "year": 2018, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "export_value_usd": 72888616.85813396, "yoy_growth_pct": 13.193790115105642, "cagr_3y_pct": 49.509818126646124 }, { "year": 2019, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "export_value_usd": 117419032.22775203, "yoy_growth_pct": 61.093785681637236, "cagr_3y_pct": 53.1426592932841 }, { "year": 2020, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "export_value_usd": 107962621.82944375, "yoy_growth_pct": -8.053558455469245, "cagr_3y_pct": 18.79881404099666 }, { "year": 2021, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "export_value_usd": 56501940.33485994, "yoy_growth_pct": -47.66527583581651, "cagr_3y_pct": -8.138284603439327 }, { "year": 2022, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "export_value_usd": 25156075.97973432, "yoy_growth_pct": -55.477500718300455, "cagr_3y_pct": -40.16323116597059 }, { "year": 2023, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "export_value_usd": 22117269.178095613, "yoy_growth_pct": -12.079812463942163, "cagr_3y_pct": -41.0496989981547 }, { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "export_value_usd": 22145985.40539246, "yoy_growth_pct": 0.1298362246515028, "cagr_3y_pct": -26.816942629988993 } ], "riskLanes": [ { "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "hs_code": "270119", "hs_description": "Coal: (other than anthracite and bituminous), whether or not pulverised but not agglomerated", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 173294084.03512433, "current_below_peak_pct": 73.52292452668006, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6827436021535487, "attention_level": "Critical attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "long_distance_without_fta" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "hs_code": "100590", "hs_description": "Cereals: maize (corn), other than seed", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 114988087.91328052, "current_below_peak_pct": 17.12555053928324, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.653181902679932, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "long_distance_without_fta" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "hs_code": "300490", "hs_description": "Medicaments: consisting of mixed or unmixed products n.e.s. in heading no. 3004, for therapeutic or prophylactic uses, packaged for retail sale", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 168428764.05553505, "current_below_peak_pct": 47.054213105628385, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.3747930989255686, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "long_distance_without_fta" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "hs_code": "330499", "hs_description": "Cosmetic and toilet preparations: n.e.c. in heading no. 3304, for the care of the skin (excluding medicaments, including sunscreen or sun tan preparations)", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 33496139.563463934, "current_below_peak_pct": 15.707413299857828, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9531763805770196, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "long_distance_without_fta" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "hs_code": "390210", "hs_description": "Propylene, other olefin polymers: polypropylene in primary forms", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 55971659.01887399, "current_below_peak_pct": 3.586622636588827, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.2522472502711781, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "long_distance_without_fta" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "hs_code": "961900", "hs_description": "Sanitary towels (pads) and tampons, napkins and napkin liners for babies and similar articles, of any material", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 21938315.319480598, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "long_distance_without_fta", "limited_history" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "hs_code": "071331", "hs_description": "Vegetables, leguminous: beans of the species vigna mungo (l.) hepper or vigna radiata (l.) wilczek, shelled, whether or not skinned or split, dried", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 11222305.48568346, "current_below_peak_pct": 3.3674597827125905, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.1555801143491955, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "long_distance_without_fta", "limited_history" ] } ], "accessProfile": { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NPL", "distance_km": 8553, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "shares_ethnic_language": 0, "shared_religion": 0, "shared_legal_system": 1, "shared_colonial_history": 0, "has_fta": 0, "rta_coverage_ratio": null, "exporter_is_wto": 1, "importer_is_wto": 1, "exporter_is_eu": 0, "importer_is_eu": 0, "importer_gdp_million_usd": 36288.830373000004, "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 1222.8788349177971, "importer_population": 29674.919, "importer_biz_entry_days": 22.5, "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 20.2, "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 419946.428126, "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 6994.21165355662, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 17.188381769090906, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 17.188381769090906, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null, "tariff_advantage_pp": null }, "sourceAttribution": { "publisher": "OECD", "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D", "year": 2025, "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)", "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/", "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0", "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/", "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions", "accessed": "2026-08-29", "supportingSources": [ { "publisher": "CEPII", "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows", "release": "202601", "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.", "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html", "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37", "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf", "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence", "accessed": "2026-08-29" } ] }, "links": { "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZAF-NPL/risk", "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZAF-NPL/risk/index.html", "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZAF-NPL/risk/index.md", "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZAF-NPL/risk/index.json", "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZAF-NPL/risk/index.ld.json", "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/", "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/", "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources", "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology", "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors", "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact", "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" } }