{ "template": "Corridor pair risk profile", "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile", "source": "api", "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:13.289Z", "seo": { "title": "South Africa exports to the Netherlands: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks", "description": "Understand reported exports from South Africa to the Netherlands, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning." }, "publisher": { "name": "Yugalinks", "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com", "email": "support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" }, "exporter": { "iso3": "ZAF", "country_name": "South Africa" }, "importer": { "iso3": "NLD", "country_name": "Netherlands" }, "latestYear": 2024, "risk": { "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NLD", "all_history_lane_count": 491, "current_lane_count": 374, "current_product_count": 374, "first_observed_last_year": 2000, "latest_data_year": 2024, "current_trade_usd": 2602546346.7339387, "attention_trade_usd": 1322499711.5059125, "critical_trade_usd": 183388256.11768785, "high_volatility_trade_usd": 1421335854.138074, "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 487682502.11594695, "declining_demand_trade_usd": 37417.417947553666, "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 1455768138.180689, "access_friction_trade_usd": 0, "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0, "critical_lane_count": 3, "high_attention_lane_count": 52, "high_volatility_lane_count": 216, "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 159, "declining_demand_lane_count": 1, "concentrated_market_lane_count": 136, "access_friction_lane_count": 0, "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 1.1138279442477657, "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 26.35796734709351, "product_concentration_hhi": 579.2782305550854, "top1_product_share_pct": 19.404018183054408, "top3_product_share_pct": 32.46031044010614, "top_product_hs6": "260111", "top_product_trade_usd": 504998566.3426717, "top_product_description": "Iron ores and concentrates: non-agglomerated", "top_attention_product_hs6": "260111", "top_attention_product_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "distance_km": 9693.59375, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "common_spoken_language_score": 0.5513799786567688, "has_reported_fta": 1, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 1.6689382078733335, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 5.920413126868688, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 1.345547293486618, "tariff_advantage_pp": 4.57486583338207, "buyer_biz_entry_days": 3.5, "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null, "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 1018007.05695, "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 58061, "buyer_population_latest": 17533.405, "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 5.515439704237579, "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 4.743525072332222, "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 0.7369568967363849, "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 22.17, "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 30.663999999999998, "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient", "attention_trade_share_pct": 50.81560653725078, "critical_trade_share_pct": 7.0464933832141226, "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "declining_buyer_demand", "concentrated_buyer_markets" ], "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Buyer-market concentration is the largest observed corridor exposure", "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 1018007.05695, "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 58061, "buyer_population_2024": 17533.405 }, "history": [ { "year": 2000, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NLD", "export_value_usd": 865484644.040217, "yoy_growth_pct": null, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 2001, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NLD", "export_value_usd": 1049347537.0570767, "yoy_growth_pct": 21.243923191815295, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 2002, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NLD", "export_value_usd": 1036683645.0312426, "yoy_growth_pct": -1.2068348739208257, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 2003, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NLD", "export_value_usd": 1318381438.3577895, "yoy_growth_pct": 27.17297554337874, "cagr_3y_pct": 15.060759844924476 }, { "year": 2004, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NLD", "export_value_usd": 1580612403.720384, "yoy_growth_pct": 19.890371461026945, "cagr_3y_pct": 14.630981965736112 }, { "year": 2005, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NLD", "export_value_usd": 1971589953.0129004, "yoy_growth_pct": 24.73582697264989, "cagr_3y_pct": 23.895856721441966 }, { "year": 2006, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NLD", "export_value_usd": 2249399609.957718, "yoy_growth_pct": 14.090640729847536, "cagr_3y_pct": 19.49282954914353 }, { "year": 2007, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NLD", "export_value_usd": 2488976460.2826424, "yoy_growth_pct": 10.650702047975713, "cagr_3y_pct": 16.340734461523244 }, { "year": 2008, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NLD", "export_value_usd": 2803343589.856517, "yoy_growth_pct": 12.630377771358091, "cagr_3y_pct": 12.448390730769798 }, { "year": 2009, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NLD", "export_value_usd": 1710226032.2318215, "yoy_growth_pct": -38.99334928404706, "cagr_3y_pct": -8.729807658633304 }, { "year": 2010, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NLD", "export_value_usd": 1826704239.4305327, "yoy_growth_pct": 6.810690809489595, "cagr_3y_pct": -9.79807294573315 }, { "year": 2011, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NLD", "export_value_usd": 2030508635.5887477, "yoy_growth_pct": 11.15694548460402, "cagr_3y_pct": -10.193141738654521 }, { "year": 2012, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NLD", "export_value_usd": 2065462554.665637, "yoy_growth_pct": 1.7214366126915959, "cagr_3y_pct": 6.49305134632483 }, { "year": 2013, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NLD", "export_value_usd": 2425712092.9973598, "yoy_growth_pct": 17.44159135288903, "cagr_3y_pct": 9.915010452807715 }, { "year": 2014, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NLD", "export_value_usd": 2380591320.286187, "yoy_growth_pct": -1.860104207808877, "cagr_3y_pct": 5.445164414415604 }, { "year": 2015, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NLD", "export_value_usd": 1455070144.8155293, "yoy_growth_pct": -38.87778501012911, "cagr_3y_pct": -11.020723937115473 }, { "year": 2016, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NLD", "export_value_usd": 1355231399.9047515, "yoy_growth_pct": -6.861438623183014, "cagr_3y_pct": -17.638407740864526 }, { "year": 2017, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NLD", "export_value_usd": 1736498142.812877, "yoy_growth_pct": 28.132962602174196, "cagr_3y_pct": -9.981903382395451 }, { "year": 2018, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NLD", "export_value_usd": 2038759191.6203742, "yoy_growth_pct": 17.406356007837577, "cagr_3y_pct": 11.899290797046236 }, { "year": 2019, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NLD", "export_value_usd": 1901627426.2075837, "yoy_growth_pct": -6.726236525452545, "cagr_3y_pct": 11.953409821360793 }, { "year": 2020, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NLD", "export_value_usd": 2052747058.048093, "yoy_growth_pct": 7.946858031064874, "cagr_3y_pct": 5.735390057522838 }, { "year": 2021, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NLD", "export_value_usd": 2348094961.6749225, "yoy_growth_pct": 14.387934571328454, "cagr_3y_pct": 4.821388497962831 }, { "year": 2022, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NLD", "export_value_usd": 3783387613.833116, "yoy_growth_pct": 61.125835010283545, "cagr_3y_pct": 25.772338276855166 }, { "year": 2023, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NLD", "export_value_usd": 2681515259.8188424, "yoy_growth_pct": -29.123961551957358, "cagr_3y_pct": 9.315466249499238 }, { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NLD", "export_value_usd": 2698868873.4212136, "yoy_growth_pct": 0.6471569959868084, "cagr_3y_pct": 4.750324244638859 } ], "riskLanes": [ { "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NLD", "hs_code": "260111", "hs_description": "Iron ores and concentrates: non-agglomerated", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 1665178859.3941145, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.6467022866360765, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NLD", "hs_code": "760110", "hs_description": "Aluminium: unwrought, (not alloyed)", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 2075859746.4707446, "current_below_peak_pct": 43.15604694191322, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0538029017584327, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NLD", "hs_code": "270112", "hs_description": "Coal: bituminous, whether or not pulverised, but not agglomerated", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 3237395682.1395063, "current_below_peak_pct": 87.02123385689923, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8423209515687737, "attention_level": "Critical attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NLD", "hs_code": "750210", "hs_description": "Nickel: unwrought, not alloyed", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 877958849.8543121, "current_below_peak_pct": 38.276673852378515, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.7432222188534388, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NLD", "hs_code": "080510", "hs_description": "Fruit, edible: oranges, fresh or dried", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 273185829.5222782, "current_below_peak_pct": 25.379028486577887, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.4088881081494018, "attention_level": "Stable", "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified", "risk_driver_labels": [] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NLD", "hs_code": "080440", "hs_description": "Fruit, edible: avocados, fresh or dried", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 795765198.7354497, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7171025933721215, "attention_level": "Stable", "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified", "risk_driver_labels": [] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NLD", "hs_code": "720241", "hs_description": "Ferro-alloys: ferro-chromium, containing by weight more than 4% of carbon", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 217775226.2079085, "current_below_peak_pct": 28.191275640168467, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6934445448738199, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NLD", "hs_code": "251010", "hs_description": "Natural calcium phosphates, natural aluminium calcium phosphates and phosphatic chalk: unground", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 184709492.28563824, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0588330733542948, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NLD", "hs_code": "261800", "hs_description": "Slag, granulated (slag sand): from the manufacture or iron or steel", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 85522074.46001776, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.320100129342428, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NLD", "hs_code": "740311", "hs_description": "Copper: refined, unwrought, cathodes and sections of cathodes", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 557486928.6017041, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.6616129261387764, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility" ] } ], "accessProfile": { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NLD", "distance_km": 8992, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "shares_ethnic_language": 0, "shared_religion": 0, "shared_legal_system": 0, "shared_colonial_history": 0, "has_fta": 1, "rta_coverage_ratio": 1, "exporter_is_wto": 1, "importer_is_wto": 1, "exporter_is_eu": 0, "importer_is_eu": 1, "importer_gdp_million_usd": 1018007.05695, "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 58061.00166795897, "importer_population": 17533.405, "importer_biz_entry_days": 3.5, "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 4, "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 419946.428126, "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 6994.21165355662, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 1.6689382078733335, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 5.920413126868688, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 1.345547293486618, "tariff_advantage_pp": 4.57486583338207 }, "sourceAttribution": { "publisher": "OECD", "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D", "year": 2025, "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)", "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/", "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0", "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/", "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions", "accessed": "2026-08-29", "supportingSources": [ { "publisher": "CEPII", "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows", "release": "202601", "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.", "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html", "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37", "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf", "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence", "accessed": "2026-08-29" } ] }, "links": { "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZAF-NLD/risk", "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZAF-NLD/risk/index.html", "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZAF-NLD/risk/index.md", "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZAF-NLD/risk/index.json", "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZAF-NLD/risk/index.ld.json", "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/", "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/", "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources", "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology", "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors", "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact", "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" } }