{ "template": "Corridor pair risk profile", "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile", "source": "api", "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:15.701Z", "seo": { "title": "South Africa exports to New Caledonia: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks", "description": "Understand reported exports from South Africa to New Caledonia, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning." }, "publisher": { "name": "Yugalinks", "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com", "email": "support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" }, "exporter": { "iso3": "ZAF", "country_name": "South Africa" }, "importer": { "iso3": "NCL", "country_name": "New Caledonia" }, "latestYear": 2024, "risk": { "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NCL", "all_history_lane_count": 8, "current_lane_count": 2, "current_product_count": 2, "first_observed_last_year": 2002, "latest_data_year": 2024, "current_trade_usd": 195349.13700000002, "attention_trade_usd": 0, "critical_trade_usd": 0, "high_volatility_trade_usd": 58827.73, "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 136521.407, "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0, "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 195349.13700000002, "access_friction_trade_usd": 195349.13700000002, "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 195349.13700000002, "critical_lane_count": 0, "high_attention_lane_count": 0, "high_volatility_lane_count": 1, "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 1, "declining_demand_lane_count": 0, "concentrated_market_lane_count": 2, "access_friction_lane_count": 2, "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 0.6461331221395181, "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 46.01149973618571, "product_concentration_hhi": 5790.894147578108, "top1_product_share_pct": 69.8858510954159, "top3_product_share_pct": 100, "top_product_hs6": "870421", "top_product_trade_usd": 136521.407, "top_product_description": "Vehicles: compression-ignition internal combustion piston engine (diesel or semi-diesel), for transport of goods, (of a gvw not exceeding 5 tonnes), n.e.c. in item no 8704.1", "top_attention_product_hs6": "", "top_attention_product_reason": "", "distance_km": 12918.7587890625, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "common_spoken_language_score": 0, "has_reported_fta": 0, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": null, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": null, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null, "tariff_advantage_pp": null, "buyer_biz_entry_days": null, "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null, "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 9435.529927, "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 34695, "buyer_population_latest": 272.62, "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": -2.0373796350958373, "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": -2.6497579926365367, "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 0.6290465692878167, "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": null, "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": null, "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer economy and income contracted", "attention_trade_share_pct": 0, "critical_trade_share_pct": 0, "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_product_mix", "concentrated_buyer_markets", "market_access_friction", "buyer_macro_weakness" ], "attention_level": "Stable", "primary_risk_reason": "Buyer-market concentration is the largest observed corridor exposure", "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 9435.529927, "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 34695, "buyer_population_2024": 272.62 }, "history": [ { "year": 2000, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NCL", "export_value_usd": 569428.2635923574, "yoy_growth_pct": null, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 2001, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NCL", "export_value_usd": 15829027.577071635, "yoy_growth_pct": 2679.8106608215935, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 2002, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NCL", "export_value_usd": 17446934.915664513, "yoy_growth_pct": 10.221141701315982, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 2003, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NCL", "export_value_usd": 1311091.1490270272, "yoy_growth_pct": -92.48526371328478, "cagr_3y_pct": 32.047836083847095 }, { "year": 2004, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NCL", "export_value_usd": 1189663.952121825, "yoy_growth_pct": -9.261537383980855, "cagr_3y_pct": -57.79894040071467 }, { "year": 2005, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NCL", "export_value_usd": 1355465.8755770295, "yoy_growth_pct": 13.93687042122178, "cagr_3y_pct": -57.329950253440146 }, { "year": 2006, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NCL", "export_value_usd": 1742690.2456362827, "yoy_growth_pct": 28.56762217598503, "cagr_3y_pct": 9.950136178982817 }, { "year": 2007, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NCL", "export_value_usd": 5056463.413202824, "yoy_growth_pct": 190.15273516703667, "cagr_3y_pct": 61.9847720102934 }, { "year": 2008, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NCL", "export_value_usd": 4215145.596527673, "yoy_growth_pct": -16.638463446178687, "cagr_3y_pct": 45.962512564290535 }, { "year": 2009, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NCL", "export_value_usd": 2800529.2628006563, "yoy_growth_pct": -33.56031959826823, "cagr_3y_pct": 17.13139210099095 }, { "year": 2010, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NCL", "export_value_usd": 5082130.948999505, "yoy_growth_pct": 81.47037477898529, "cagr_3y_pct": 0.1689206119624309 }, { "year": 2011, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NCL", "export_value_usd": 4826444.130925919, "yoy_growth_pct": -5.031094645916623, "cagr_3y_pct": 4.617635704030265 }, { "year": 2012, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NCL", "export_value_usd": 3738510.2208524756, "yoy_growth_pct": -22.541106465988058, "cagr_3y_pct": 10.108155057777623 }, { "year": 2013, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NCL", "export_value_usd": 5217106.282659242, "yoy_growth_pct": 39.55040843701663, "cagr_3y_pct": 0.8775697431297136 }, { "year": 2014, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NCL", "export_value_usd": 4566887.884637504, "yoy_growth_pct": -12.463200149534071, "cagr_3y_pct": -1.8257281383425417 }, { "year": 2015, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NCL", "export_value_usd": 1133282.902468464, "yoy_growth_pct": -75.18478817312989, "cagr_3y_pct": -32.82413694790739 }, { "year": 2016, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NCL", "export_value_usd": 1568862.5700240394, "yoy_growth_pct": 38.43521036158013, "cagr_3y_pct": -33.00355799199309 }, { "year": 2017, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NCL", "export_value_usd": 3003092.731361637, "yoy_growth_pct": 91.41847021792489, "cagr_3y_pct": -13.040680814710804 }, { "year": 2018, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NCL", "export_value_usd": 1237185.517643903, "yoy_growth_pct": -58.80295321140654, "cagr_3y_pct": 2.96718273900336 }, { "year": 2019, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NCL", "export_value_usd": 2052801.8537939745, "yoy_growth_pct": 65.9251441694316, "cagr_3y_pct": 9.375665831757374 }, { "year": 2020, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NCL", "export_value_usd": 838551.9152219901, "yoy_growth_pct": -59.15085941333382, "cagr_3y_pct": -34.638741743140166 }, { "year": 2021, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NCL", "export_value_usd": 1282818.2030453377, "yoy_growth_pct": 52.98017686904177, "cagr_3y_pct": 1.214661913439552 }, { "year": 2022, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NCL", "export_value_usd": 1995869.5836314813, "yoy_growth_pct": 55.58475697440215, "cagr_3y_pct": -0.933144961345822 }, { "year": 2023, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NCL", "export_value_usd": 702032.7150000001, "yoy_growth_pct": -64.82572204328838, "cagr_3y_pct": -5.751206683187727 }, { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NCL", "export_value_usd": 614012.9619999999, "yoy_growth_pct": -12.537842057688176, "cagr_3y_pct": -21.776458356820385 } ], "riskLanes": [ { "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NCL", "hs_code": "870421", "hs_description": "Vehicles: compression-ignition internal combustion piston engine (diesel or semi-diesel), for transport of goods, (of a gvw not exceeding 5 tonnes), n.e.c. in item no 8704.1", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 16341508.410999998, "current_below_peak_pct": 65.83807596957747, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.38692501023683007, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "long_distance_without_fta", "buyer_macro_weakness", "limited_history" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NCL", "hs_code": "190590", "hs_description": "Food preparations: bakers' wares n.e.c. in heading no. 1605, whether or not containing cocoa: communion wafers, empty cachets suitable for pharmaceutical use, sealing wafers, rice papers and similar products", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 12058074.651229406, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.2476769203239528, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "long_distance_without_fta", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] } ], "accessProfile": { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "NCL", "distance_km": 13026, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "shares_ethnic_language": 0, "shared_religion": 0, "shared_legal_system": 0, "shared_colonial_history": 0, "has_fta": 0, "rta_coverage_ratio": null, "exporter_is_wto": 1, "importer_is_wto": 0, "exporter_is_eu": 0, "importer_is_eu": 0, "importer_gdp_million_usd": 9435.529927, "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 34610.556551243484, "importer_population": 272.62, "importer_biz_entry_days": null, "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null, "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 419946.428126, "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 6994.21165355662, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": null, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": null, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null, "tariff_advantage_pp": null }, "sourceAttribution": { "publisher": "OECD", "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D", "year": 2025, "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)", "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/", "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0", "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/", "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions", "accessed": "2026-08-29", "supportingSources": [ { "publisher": "CEPII", "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows", "release": "202601", "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.", "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html", "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37", "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf", "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence", "accessed": "2026-08-29" } ] }, "links": { "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZAF-NCL/risk", "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZAF-NCL/risk/index.html", "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZAF-NCL/risk/index.md", "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZAF-NCL/risk/index.json", "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZAF-NCL/risk/index.ld.json", "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/", "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/", "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources", "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology", "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors", "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact", "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" } }