{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:13.324Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "South Africa exports to Luxembourg: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from South Africa to Luxembourg, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "ZAF",
    "country_name": "South Africa"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "LUX",
    "country_name": "Luxembourg"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
    "importer_iso3": "LUX",
    "all_history_lane_count": 47,
    "current_lane_count": 15,
    "current_product_count": 15,
    "first_observed_last_year": 2001,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 34924860.099752866,
    "attention_trade_usd": 31611646.586549066,
    "critical_trade_usd": 0,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 7005274.023517571,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 2664447.0847931006,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 34123515.06681616,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 0,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0,
    "critical_lane_count": 0,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 3,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 9,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 7,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 0,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 11,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 0,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 0.5983452153786976,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 19.87554513505342,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 5721.992256009729,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 74.4533982829401,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 90.5133091335497,
    "top_product_hs6": "252922",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 26002745.18982863,
    "top_product_description": "Fluorspar: containing by weight more than 97% of calcium fluoride",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "252922",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
    "distance_km": 9376.5703125,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "common_spoken_language_score": null,
    "has_reported_fta": 1,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 1.52929884400404,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 4.334022337878789,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 1.3898512445696969,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 2.944171093309092,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": 16.5,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 86710.80333699999,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 135683,
    "buyer_population_latest": 639.07,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 5.9490070751361035,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 4.101286267407822,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 1.7749260109831688,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 22.124,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 54.153999999999996,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 90.5133091335497,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 0,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "high_volatility",
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "concentrated_product_mix",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets"
    ],
    "attention_level": "High attention",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Buyer-market concentration is the largest observed corridor exposure",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 86710.80333699999,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 135683,
    "buyer_population_2024": 639.07
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "LUX",
      "export_value_usd": 2467096.7400296964,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "LUX",
      "export_value_usd": 3911354.5249623866,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 58.54078445725261,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "LUX",
      "export_value_usd": 3915870.9375404576,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 0.11546927155918763,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "LUX",
      "export_value_usd": 1714635.6720167238,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -56.21317200270959,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -11.421451696870466
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "LUX",
      "export_value_usd": 5644720.882445584,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 229.2081795899163,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 13.006935146555065
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "LUX",
      "export_value_usd": 11416249.38701189,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 102.24648170851242,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 42.85595843896779
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "LUX",
      "export_value_usd": 2350438.5147955804,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -79.41146487681286,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 11.085919297254243
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "LUX",
      "export_value_usd": 10815997.265350023,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 360.1693342440272,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 24.205653905095303
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "LUX",
      "export_value_usd": 98397269.54373464,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 809.7382990189794,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 105.03115897525865
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "LUX",
      "export_value_usd": 42985977.48286389,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -56.31385130686182,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 163.46684488778362
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "LUX",
      "export_value_usd": 25917505.370752007,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -39.707069866949354,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 33.81625643221993
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "LUX",
      "export_value_usd": 84076686.79486828,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 224.40115509631227,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -5.107727506698312
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "LUX",
      "export_value_usd": 14789636.7249568,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -82.40934878768378,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -29.92815275362206
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "LUX",
      "export_value_usd": 42763325.90125699,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 189.14385590753517,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 18.16606111957466
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "LUX",
      "export_value_usd": 28062578.55606299,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -34.37699719413519,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -30.63335950327718
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "LUX",
      "export_value_usd": 14033308.252663882,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -49.99280545574829,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -1.734548766345534
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "LUX",
      "export_value_usd": 14617502.946880477,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 4.162914999787737,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -30.080136511861255
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "LUX",
      "export_value_usd": 20990633.075451363,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 43.59930797846001,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -9.22505641878102
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "LUX",
      "export_value_usd": 34520681.735252656,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 64.45755404883306,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 34.99150304634111
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "LUX",
      "export_value_usd": 18994892.726976607,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -44.97532559567342,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 9.124236564414101
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "LUX",
      "export_value_usd": 14632936.658222046,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -22.9638362872126,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -11.331644901750993
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "LUX",
      "export_value_usd": 21338596.390400607,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 45.82579620756264,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -14.815189478975622
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "LUX",
      "export_value_usd": 32597117.016215634,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 52.76129891504855,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 19.723879757014018
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "LUX",
      "export_value_usd": 51970445.096717946,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 59.43264268083872,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 52.57204987608806
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "LUX",
      "export_value_usd": 44147627.15236881,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -15.052435917742734,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 27.422808295837765
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "LUX",
      "hs_code": "252922",
      "hs_description": "Fluorspar: containing by weight more than 97% of calcium fluoride",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 26015621.89909534,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 18.571978351328376,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.3269842914513977,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "limited_history"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "LUX",
      "hs_code": "870333",
      "hs_description": "Vehicles: compression-ignition internal combustion piston engine (diesel or semi-diesel), cylinder capacity exceeding 2500cc",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 83235396.74474828,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.4373887042357618,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "LUX",
      "hs_code": "760110",
      "hs_description": "Aluminium: unwrought, (not alloyed)",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 40391611.30345628,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 84.66274809960841,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.6040798825413187,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "LUX",
      "hs_code": "401110",
      "hs_description": "Rubber: new pneumatic tyres, of a kind used on motor cars (including station wagons and racing cars)",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 80992474.60033189,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.6177197532174081,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "LUX",
      "hs_code": "870332",
      "hs_description": "Vehicles: compression-ignition internal combustion piston engine (diesel or semi-diesel), cylinder capacity exceeding 1500cc but not exceeding 2500cc",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 375702694.3712825,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 66.96860932303326,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9821607021829863,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "LUX",
      "hs_code": "870323",
      "hs_description": "Vehicles: spark-ignition internal combustion reciprocating piston engine, cylinder capacity exceeding 1500cc but not exceeding 3000cc",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 460997470.96042943,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 10.83178239470039,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9331930035660225,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "LUX",
      "hs_code": "870321",
      "hs_description": "Vehicles: spark-ignition internal combustion reciprocating piston engine, cylinder capacity not exceeding 1000cc",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 111117200.75516707,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.5883979078263193,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "LUX",
      "hs_code": "220421",
      "hs_description": "Wine: still, in containers holding 2 litres or less",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 197767879.39694625,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 62.32405668325859,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7888782438046129,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "LUX",
      "hs_code": "852691",
      "hs_description": "Radio navigational aid apparatus",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 16490068.37555349,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.5922449777912706,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "LUX",
      "hs_code": "320619",
      "hs_description": "Colouring matter: pigments and preparations based on titanium dioxide, containing less than 80% by weight of titanium dioxide calculated on the dry weight",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 22904775.57519504,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9994060355039978,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "limited_history"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
    "importer_iso3": "LUX",
    "distance_km": 8673,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 0,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 0,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 1,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": 1,
    "exporter_is_wto": 1,
    "importer_is_wto": 1,
    "exporter_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_is_eu": 1,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 86710.803337,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 135682.79427449263,
    "importer_population": 639.07,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 16.5,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 1.6,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 419946.428126,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 6994.21165355662,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 1.52929884400404,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 4.334022337878789,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 1.3898512445696969,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 2.944171093309092
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZAF-LUX/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZAF-LUX/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZAF-LUX/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZAF-LUX/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZAF-LUX/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}