{ "template": "Corridor pair risk profile", "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile", "source": "api", "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:13.322Z", "seo": { "title": "South Africa exports to Sri Lanka: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks", "description": "Understand reported exports from South Africa to Sri Lanka, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning." }, "publisher": { "name": "Yugalinks", "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com", "email": "support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" }, "exporter": { "iso3": "ZAF", "country_name": "South Africa" }, "importer": { "iso3": "LKA", "country_name": "Sri Lanka" }, "latestYear": 2024, "risk": { "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "LKA", "all_history_lane_count": 54, "current_lane_count": 14, "current_product_count": 14, "first_observed_last_year": 2000, "latest_data_year": 2024, "current_trade_usd": 40672179.95239168, "attention_trade_usd": 37156926.0444339, "critical_trade_usd": 0, "high_volatility_trade_usd": 38501404.23527663, "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 2855001.5976035353, "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0, "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 29267443.714969017, "access_friction_trade_usd": 40672179.95239168, "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0, "critical_lane_count": 0, "high_attention_lane_count": 3, "high_volatility_lane_count": 12, "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 4, "declining_demand_lane_count": 0, "concentrated_market_lane_count": 8, "access_friction_lane_count": 14, "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 1.4509268286455212, "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 15.703567976097263, "product_concentration_hhi": 4442.876194081626, "top1_product_share_pct": 62.11231676101985, "top3_product_share_pct": 91.35710475299697, "top_product_hs6": "720711", "top_product_trade_usd": 25262433.24564153, "top_product_description": "Iron or non-alloy steel: semi-finished products of iron or non-alloy steel: containing by weight less than 0.25% of carbon, of rectangular (including square) cross-section, width less than twice thickness", "top_attention_product_hs6": "720711", "top_attention_product_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "distance_km": 7892.25, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "common_spoken_language_score": 0.028999999165534973, "has_reported_fta": 0, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 21.977370466262624, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 21.977370466262624, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null, "tariff_advantage_pp": null, "buyer_biz_entry_days": 8, "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null, "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 84518.83039300001, "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 3815, "buyer_population_latest": 22156, "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 2.1452073861579324, "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 2.039656303460391, "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 0.1034412369869564, "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 29.916000000000004, "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 23.772, "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient", "attention_trade_share_pct": 91.35710475299697, "critical_trade_share_pct": 0, "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_product_mix", "concentrated_buyer_markets", "market_access_friction" ], "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Tariff, distance or agreement conditions create market-access friction", "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 84518.83039300001, "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 3815, "buyer_population_2024": 22156 }, "history": [ { "year": 2000, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "LKA", "export_value_usd": 27727630.909645367, "yoy_growth_pct": null, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 2001, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "LKA", "export_value_usd": 22739601.000274725, "yoy_growth_pct": -17.98938367877474, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 2002, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "LKA", "export_value_usd": 27560683.312438916, "yoy_growth_pct": 21.201261676077543, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 2003, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "LKA", "export_value_usd": 24305838.66731227, "yoy_growth_pct": -11.809738562097428, "cagr_3y_pct": -4.295443401772447 }, { "year": 2004, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "LKA", "export_value_usd": 24394817.354558896, "yoy_growth_pct": 0.36607947771121196, "cagr_3y_pct": 2.3697345003197645 }, { "year": 2005, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "LKA", "export_value_usd": 28360253.633675, "yoy_growth_pct": 16.255240699209605, "cagr_3y_pct": 0.9578383719812011 }, { "year": 2006, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "LKA", "export_value_usd": 22652848.54927123, "yoy_growth_pct": -20.12466164134298, "cagr_3y_pct": -2.3203555388305097 }, { "year": 2007, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "LKA", "export_value_usd": 23789893.7028812, "yoy_growth_pct": 5.019435640232306, "cagr_3y_pct": -0.8335019516642062 }, { "year": 2008, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "LKA", "export_value_usd": 31577547.166076805, "yoy_growth_pct": 32.735133500207446, "cagr_3y_pct": 3.6468467268623517 }, { "year": 2009, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "LKA", "export_value_usd": 24662980.81659336, "yoy_growth_pct": -21.897097685002088, "cagr_3y_pct": 2.874463000859384 }, { "year": 2010, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "LKA", "export_value_usd": 34200119.00120389, "yoy_growth_pct": 38.66985201640305, "cagr_3y_pct": 12.861297438837681 }, { "year": 2011, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "LKA", "export_value_usd": 37144937.78305459, "yoy_growth_pct": 8.610551272488376, "cagr_3y_pct": 5.561871432141174 }, { "year": 2012, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "LKA", "export_value_usd": 26483025.704063363, "yoy_growth_pct": -28.703540011999053, "cagr_3y_pct": 2.401742228670156 }, { "year": 2013, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "LKA", "export_value_usd": 31988000.9007259, "yoy_growth_pct": 20.786806077894248, "cagr_3y_pct": -2.2042847249548303 }, { "year": 2014, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "LKA", "export_value_usd": 19123103.162677325, "yoy_growth_pct": -40.21788600661391, "cagr_3y_pct": -19.8531894542907 }, { "year": 2015, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "LKA", "export_value_usd": 78307086.04651095, "yoy_growth_pct": 309.4894295155159, "cagr_3y_pct": 43.530595627048065 }, { "year": 2016, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "LKA", "export_value_usd": 167412024.91494566, "yoy_growth_pct": 113.7891133064386, "cagr_3y_pct": 73.62003920013022 }, { "year": 2017, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "LKA", "export_value_usd": 250014357.372194, "yoy_growth_pct": 49.3407403077615, "cagr_3y_pct": 135.57843216668465 }, { "year": 2018, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "LKA", "export_value_usd": 240377423.03631663, "yoy_growth_pct": -3.854552369378905, "cagr_3y_pct": 45.33298843030489 }, { "year": 2019, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "LKA", "export_value_usd": 153192803.87361252, "yoy_growth_pct": -36.269886772823966, "cagr_3y_pct": -2.915349413922308 }, { "year": 2020, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "LKA", "export_value_usd": 209923186.98397332, "yoy_growth_pct": 37.03201565340146, "cagr_3y_pct": -5.659431875509513 }, { "year": 2021, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "LKA", "export_value_usd": 236320839.01696858, "yoy_growth_pct": 12.574910095572523, "cagr_3y_pct": -0.5657242187002476 }, { "year": 2022, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "LKA", "export_value_usd": 230910060.42087802, "yoy_growth_pct": -2.2895901261175022, "cagr_3y_pct": 14.657243503660666 }, { "year": 2023, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "LKA", "export_value_usd": 162854590.45495147, "yoy_growth_pct": -29.472717577520168, "cagr_3y_pct": -8.114595565773453 }, { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "LKA", "export_value_usd": 51596229.31411122, "yoy_growth_pct": -68.3176082602451, "cagr_3y_pct": -39.78491346662688 } ], "riskLanes": [ { "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "LKA", "hs_code": "720711", "hs_description": "Iron or non-alloy steel: semi-finished products of iron or non-alloy steel: containing by weight less than 0.25% of carbon, of rectangular (including square) cross-section, width less than twice thickness", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 127224114.21002987, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.5274861347346083, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "long_distance_without_fta" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "LKA", "hs_code": "710231", "hs_description": "Diamonds: non-industrial, unworked or simply sawn, cleaved or bruted, but not mounted or set", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 73342912.48253661, "current_below_peak_pct": 41.96585628555546, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.4236640497458186, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "long_distance_without_fta" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "LKA", "hs_code": "270119", "hs_description": "Coal: (other than anthracite and bituminous), whether or not pulverised but not agglomerated", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 266503845.09706065, "current_below_peak_pct": 83.30355422201453, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.2503532190557414, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "long_distance_without_fta" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "LKA", "hs_code": "121190", "hs_description": "Plants and parts (including seeds and fruits) n.e.c. in heading no. 1211, of a kind used primarily in perfumery, in pharmacy or for insecticidal, fungicidal or similar purposes, fresh, chilled, frozen or dried, whether or not cut, crushed or powdered", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 11800693.411010727, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9910914175459955, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified", "risk_driver_labels": [ "long_distance_without_fta" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "LKA", "hs_code": "100590", "hs_description": "Cereals: maize (corn), other than seed", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 69188088.41350225, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8762695782278236, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "long_distance_without_fta" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "LKA", "hs_code": "120991", "hs_description": "Seed: vegetable seed, of a kind used for sowing", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 10278681.527179375, "current_below_peak_pct": 13.614685068073113, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.046508437430462, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "long_distance_without_fta" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "LKA", "hs_code": "843149", "hs_description": "Machinery: parts of machines handling earth, minerals or ores and n.e.c. in heading no. 8431", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 13167347.136272183, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.7281764951194927, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "long_distance_without_fta" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "LKA", "hs_code": "853710", "hs_description": "Boards, panels, consoles, desks and other bases: for electric control or the distribution of electricity, (other than switching apparatus of heading no. 8517), for a voltage not exceeding 1000 volts", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 29044569.753982946, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 2.2566092548277528, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "long_distance_without_fta" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "LKA", "hs_code": "732690", "hs_description": "Iron or steel: articles n.e.s. in heading no. 7326", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 47106559.07458698, "current_below_peak_pct": 53.18558604022036, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.1560237776021294, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "long_distance_without_fta" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "LKA", "hs_code": "390210", "hs_description": "Propylene, other olefin polymers: polypropylene in primary forms", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 43597917.37212716, "current_below_peak_pct": 96.45339422294671, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.171815212321897, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "long_distance_without_fta" ] } ], "accessProfile": { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "LKA", "distance_km": 6686, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "shares_ethnic_language": 0, "shared_religion": 0, "shared_legal_system": 1, "shared_colonial_history": 0, "has_fta": 0, "rta_coverage_ratio": null, "exporter_is_wto": 1, "importer_is_wto": 1, "exporter_is_eu": 0, "importer_is_eu": 0, "importer_gdp_million_usd": 84518.830393, "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 3814.715219037733, "importer_population": 22156, "importer_biz_entry_days": 8, "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 8.7, "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 419946.428126, "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 6994.21165355662, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 21.977370466262624, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 21.977370466262624, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null, "tariff_advantage_pp": null }, "sourceAttribution": { "publisher": "OECD", "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D", "year": 2025, "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)", "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/", "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0", "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/", "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions", "accessed": "2026-08-29", "supportingSources": [ { "publisher": "CEPII", "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows", "release": "202601", "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.", "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html", "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37", "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf", "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence", "accessed": "2026-08-29" } ] }, "links": { "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZAF-LKA/risk", "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZAF-LKA/risk/index.html", "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZAF-LKA/risk/index.md", "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZAF-LKA/risk/index.json", "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZAF-LKA/risk/index.ld.json", "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/", "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/", "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources", "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology", "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors", "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact", "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" } }