{ "template": "Corridor pair risk profile", "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile", "source": "api", "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:13.295Z", "seo": { "title": "South Africa exports to Italy: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks", "description": "Understand reported exports from South Africa to Italy, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning." }, "publisher": { "name": "Yugalinks", "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com", "email": "support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" }, "exporter": { "iso3": "ZAF", "country_name": "South Africa" }, "importer": { "iso3": "ITA", "country_name": "Italy" }, "latestYear": 2024, "risk": { "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "all_history_lane_count": 412, "current_lane_count": 202, "current_product_count": 202, "first_observed_last_year": 2000, "latest_data_year": 2024, "current_trade_usd": 1839875831.7939453, "attention_trade_usd": 614618987.4305158, "critical_trade_usd": 53148953.06411135, "high_volatility_trade_usd": 343752319.7377474, "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 458759151.47329974, "declining_demand_trade_usd": 8894146.59507165, "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 627053754.2480162, "access_friction_trade_usd": 0, "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0, "critical_lane_count": 1, "high_attention_lane_count": 29, "high_volatility_lane_count": 100, "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 95, "declining_demand_lane_count": 2, "concentrated_market_lane_count": 68, "access_friction_lane_count": 0, "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 0.7475826665488952, "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 41.587468762124544, "product_concentration_hhi": 1487.1998136809752, "top1_product_share_pct": 35.62480908556117, "top3_product_share_pct": 49.98238298426567, "top_product_hs6": "710812", "top_product_trade_usd": 655452252.4879735, "top_product_description": "Metals: gold, non-monetary, unwrought (but not powder)", "top_attention_product_hs6": "711031", "top_attention_product_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "distance_km": 8460.3349609375, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "common_spoken_language_score": 0.08409999310970306, "has_reported_fta": 1, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 1.6689382078733335, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 5.920413126868688, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 1.345547293486618, "tariff_advantage_pp": 4.57486583338207, "buyer_biz_entry_days": 11, "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null, "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 2099880.198259, "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 35551, "buyer_population_latest": 59066.223, "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 3.3456337761183397, "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 3.6164129413341017, "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": -0.26132844935394806, "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 21.387999999999998, "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 22.601999999999997, "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient", "attention_trade_share_pct": 33.405460129950185, "critical_trade_share_pct": 2.8887249968542283, "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "declining_buyer_demand", "concentrated_buyer_markets" ], "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Buyer-market concentration is the largest observed corridor exposure", "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 2099880.198259, "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 35551, "buyer_population_2024": 59066.223 }, "history": [ { "year": 2000, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "export_value_usd": 1861185469.9119346, "yoy_growth_pct": null, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 2001, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "export_value_usd": 1533168214.3909993, "yoy_growth_pct": -17.62410360620621, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 2002, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "export_value_usd": 1717451444.2870283, "yoy_growth_pct": 12.019765878672972, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 2003, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "export_value_usd": 1561584924.2083302, "yoy_growth_pct": -9.075454249211889, "cagr_3y_pct": -5.682564283213676 }, { "year": 2004, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "export_value_usd": 2202965418.3767095, "yoy_growth_pct": 41.0724056197928, "cagr_3y_pct": 12.842480513166121 }, { "year": 2005, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "export_value_usd": 2597924199.6673565, "yoy_growth_pct": 17.92850573122835, "cagr_3y_pct": 14.792629087673049 }, { "year": 2006, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "export_value_usd": 2471801487.469298, "yoy_growth_pct": -4.854749504015842, "cagr_3y_pct": 16.542051984689323 }, { "year": 2007, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "export_value_usd": 3005389076.813145, "yoy_growth_pct": 21.58699199951326, "cagr_3y_pct": 10.908374774256725 }, { "year": 2008, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "export_value_usd": 3126133600.4947834, "yoy_growth_pct": 4.0176004036613255, "cagr_3y_pct": 6.363761204366858 }, { "year": 2009, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "export_value_usd": 1926826826.305175, "yoy_growth_pct": -38.36390018647285, "cagr_3y_pct": -7.967115984190343 }, { "year": 2010, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "export_value_usd": 2279330767.9759135, "yoy_growth_pct": 18.294531550958816, "cagr_3y_pct": -8.80545032295441 }, { "year": 2011, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "export_value_usd": 2528599456.075145, "yoy_growth_pct": 10.936047176715213, "cagr_3y_pct": -6.826837793937424 }, { "year": 2012, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "export_value_usd": 2142100143.0957398, "yoy_growth_pct": -15.28511413900735, "cagr_3y_pct": 3.5934655727173137 }, { "year": 2013, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "export_value_usd": 1967527403.8645694, "yoy_growth_pct": -8.14960681431447, "cagr_3y_pct": -4.785195725388592 }, { "year": 2014, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "export_value_usd": 2150433644.3152604, "yoy_growth_pct": 9.296248687130415, "cagr_3y_pct": -5.256664855717153 }, { "year": 2015, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "export_value_usd": 1627170870.0539386, "yoy_growth_pct": -24.332895629892302, "cagr_3y_pct": -8.757369607009801 }, { "year": 2016, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "export_value_usd": 1286133001.4420667, "yoy_growth_pct": -20.95894628451448, "cagr_3y_pct": -13.212929154505703 }, { "year": 2017, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "export_value_usd": 1268489480.0100908, "yoy_growth_pct": -1.3718271292466055, "cagr_3y_pct": -16.133804678650975 }, { "year": 2018, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "export_value_usd": 1356170647.0425758, "yoy_growth_pct": 6.912250232598494, "cagr_3y_pct": -5.891888185702465 }, { "year": 2019, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "export_value_usd": 1507376364.8993764, "yoy_growth_pct": 11.14946103475527, "cagr_3y_pct": 5.433495802887722 }, { "year": 2020, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "export_value_usd": 1104840431.325219, "yoy_growth_pct": -26.704407933384864, "cagr_3y_pct": -4.4998113161710425 }, { "year": 2021, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "export_value_usd": 1755394351.4418378, "yoy_growth_pct": 58.88216086881446, "cagr_3y_pct": 8.981668363977558 }, { "year": 2022, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "export_value_usd": 2358970289.21798, "yoy_growth_pct": 34.38406516919572, "cagr_3y_pct": 16.10036628159046 }, { "year": 2023, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "export_value_usd": 2043009326.9997602, "yoy_growth_pct": -13.394020419094122, "cagr_3y_pct": 22.74117134408662 }, { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "export_value_usd": 1888919256.9248393, "yoy_growth_pct": -7.542308693284738, "cagr_3y_pct": 2.473813661542068 } ], "riskLanes": [ { "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "hs_code": "710812", "hs_description": "Metals: gold, non-monetary, unwrought (but not powder)", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 7137299630.394237, "current_below_peak_pct": 41.235388503084735, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.4743608603049934, "attention_level": "Stable", "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified", "risk_driver_labels": [] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "hs_code": "711031", "hs_description": "Metals: rhodium, unwrought or in powder form", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 299587004.3460113, "current_below_peak_pct": 42.43452593585309, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.6031105889344217, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "hs_code": "711011", "hs_description": "Metals: platinum, unwrought or in powder form", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 588886449.593397, "current_below_peak_pct": 67.03141303198815, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8667625334086476, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "hs_code": "720241", "hs_description": "Ferro-alloys: ferro-chromium, containing by weight more than 4% of carbon", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 241220237.60002404, "current_below_peak_pct": 69.34533734889534, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.5674471935582286, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "hs_code": "720110", "hs_description": "Iron: non-alloy pig iron containing by weight 0.5% or less of phosphorus, in pigs, blocks or other primary forms", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 495757233.53065026, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9004077326639666, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "hs_code": "750210", "hs_description": "Nickel: unwrought, not alloyed", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 398214375.34241056, "current_below_peak_pct": 23.322147277833956, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0744343583906872, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "hs_code": "270112", "hs_description": "Coal: bituminous, whether or not pulverised, but not agglomerated", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 604100390.0246077, "current_below_peak_pct": 93.60877277194503, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8309604486381544, "attention_level": "Critical attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "hs_code": "740311", "hs_description": "Copper: refined, unwrought, cathodes and sections of cathodes", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 4499363954.93764, "current_below_peak_pct": 29.92478187518185, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.3916759060339219, "attention_level": "Stable", "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified", "risk_driver_labels": [] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "hs_code": "030743", "hs_description": "Molluscs: cuttle fish and squid, whether in shell or not, frozen", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 748149889.7217398, "current_below_peak_pct": 38.651130994344506, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9941462859507636, "attention_level": "Stable", "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified", "risk_driver_labels": [] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "hs_code": "030474", "hs_description": "Fish fillets: frozen, hake (Merluccius spp., Urophycis spp.)", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 131745708.48540461, "current_below_peak_pct": 13.559866153428274, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.25407248336243954, "attention_level": "Stable", "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified", "risk_driver_labels": [] } ], "accessProfile": { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "ZAF", "importer_iso3": "ITA", "distance_km": 7708, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "shares_ethnic_language": 0, "shared_religion": 0, "shared_legal_system": 0, "shared_colonial_history": 0, "has_fta": 1, "rta_coverage_ratio": 1, "exporter_is_wto": 1, "importer_is_wto": 1, "exporter_is_eu": 0, "importer_is_eu": 1, "importer_gdp_million_usd": 2099880.198259, "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 35551.286193786254, "importer_population": 59066.223, "importer_biz_entry_days": 11, "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 13.8, "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 419946.428126, "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 6994.21165355662, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 1.6689382078733335, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 5.920413126868688, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 1.345547293486618, "tariff_advantage_pp": 4.57486583338207 }, "sourceAttribution": { "publisher": "OECD", "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D", "year": 2025, "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)", "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/", "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0", "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/", "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions", "accessed": "2026-08-29", "supportingSources": [ { "publisher": "CEPII", "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows", "release": "202601", "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.", "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html", "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37", "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf", "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence", "accessed": "2026-08-29" } ] }, "links": { "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZAF-ITA/risk", "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZAF-ITA/risk/index.html", "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZAF-ITA/risk/index.md", "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZAF-ITA/risk/index.json", "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZAF-ITA/risk/index.ld.json", "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/", "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/", "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources", "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology", "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors", "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact", "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" } }