{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:13.356Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "South Africa exports to Estonia: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from South Africa to Estonia, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "ZAF",
    "country_name": "South Africa"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "EST",
    "country_name": "Estonia"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
    "importer_iso3": "EST",
    "all_history_lane_count": 28,
    "current_lane_count": 15,
    "current_product_count": 15,
    "first_observed_last_year": 2005,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 22003458.536099073,
    "attention_trade_usd": 3774354.367392271,
    "critical_trade_usd": 0,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 590027.5565035841,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 258484.85893752822,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 4513688.675944214,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 0,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0,
    "critical_lane_count": 0,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 1,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 5,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 3,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 0,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 7,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 0,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 0.4493343791176491,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 29.153045015123087,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 5244.9697678400635,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 70.12345832742449,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 91.95318632829745,
    "top_product_hs6": "870421",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 15429586.07715356,
    "top_product_description": "Vehicles: compression-ignition internal combustion piston engine (diesel or semi-diesel), for transport of goods, (of a gvw not exceeding 5 tonnes), n.e.c. in item no 8704.1",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "890190",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
    "distance_km": 10405.9794921875,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "common_spoken_language_score": 0.13339999318122864,
    "has_reported_fta": 1,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 1.026340343562452,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 2.920070348183908,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 1.285126822049042,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 1.6349435261348662,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": 3.5,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 36262.924354,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 27281,
    "buyer_population_latest": 1329.254,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 6.235608076538068,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 5.522533158466936,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 0.6757560652948857,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 30.938,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 31.318,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 17.153459585455764,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 0,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "high_volatility",
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "concentrated_product_mix",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets"
    ],
    "attention_level": "Watch",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Buyer-market concentration is the largest observed corridor exposure",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 36262.924354,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 27281,
    "buyer_population_2024": 1329.254
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "EST",
      "export_value_usd": 2551972.7956339135,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "EST",
      "export_value_usd": 1504787.9488773916,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -41.03432640614806,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "EST",
      "export_value_usd": 1890420.3209881035,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 25.62702421948575,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "EST",
      "export_value_usd": 3334099.6617294853,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 76.36816663009553,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 9.320307765355086
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "EST",
      "export_value_usd": 10111105.217838164,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 203.26343672022293,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 88.70110431664962
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "EST",
      "export_value_usd": 9078311.47309101,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -10.214449582871355,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 68.71313701808457
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "EST",
      "export_value_usd": 10353895.421976093,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 14.05089429533275,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 45.89544473905909
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "EST",
      "export_value_usd": 12616707.297472518,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 21.854691237209313,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 7.658700331087043
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "EST",
      "export_value_usd": 30639173.598788932,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 142.84603642130006,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 49.999791733059595
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "EST",
      "export_value_usd": 13321615.474429928,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -56.52097002069113,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 8.763800145083621
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "EST",
      "export_value_usd": 23514076.670779753,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 76.51069959130456,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 23.06294410189429
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "EST",
      "export_value_usd": 36610314.11782857,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 55.69530809314374,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 6.114680131567329
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "EST",
      "export_value_usd": 31946454.752445523,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -12.739195163342865,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 33.851094038371876
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "EST",
      "export_value_usd": 21795157.826619036,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -31.775973279317938,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -2.4986349271680863
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "EST",
      "export_value_usd": 19688391.721509352,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -9.666211742392761,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -18.679083956768096
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "EST",
      "export_value_usd": 19741866.485133495,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 0.2716055449349941,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -14.823096657951929
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "EST",
      "export_value_usd": 22351761.590849925,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 13.220103112751769,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 0.8441197431278136
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "EST",
      "export_value_usd": 20805489.06035754,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -6.9179000688938,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 1.8566126432496777
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "EST",
      "export_value_usd": 27153232.014192503,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 30.50994348376004,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 11.210153457300564
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "EST",
      "export_value_usd": 23858462.71100462,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -12.133985749710263,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 2.198275333896782
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "EST",
      "export_value_usd": 19957721.96169074,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -16.349505819227318,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -1.3771202294523999
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "EST",
      "export_value_usd": 29458914.130179245,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 47.606596518010626,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 2.753920565796686
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "EST",
      "export_value_usd": 23894960.12334337,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -18.887165977159594,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 0.05096558815524954
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "EST",
      "export_value_usd": 32415860.495082244,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 35.659822522217425,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 17.548077026515884
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "EST",
      "export_value_usd": 25985847.075998183,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -19.836010276696335,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -4.095265375315893
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "EST",
      "hs_code": "870421",
      "hs_description": "Vehicles: compression-ignition internal combustion piston engine (diesel or semi-diesel), for transport of goods, (of a gvw not exceeding 5 tonnes), n.e.c. in item no 8704.1",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 134428129.38829893,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 35.27790206189867,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.528040075752866,
      "attention_level": "Stable",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": []
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "EST",
      "hs_code": "890190",
      "hs_description": "Vessels: n.e.s. in heading no. 8901, for the transport of goods and other vessels for the transport of both persons and goods",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 37750457.94446653,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "limited_history"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "EST",
      "hs_code": "220421",
      "hs_description": "Wine: still, in containers holding 2 litres or less",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 50140014.13640556,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 47.7129557170222,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.4340342019808335,
      "attention_level": "Stable",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": []
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "EST",
      "hs_code": "080610",
      "hs_description": "Fruit, edible: grapes, fresh",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 12143062.833457971,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 44.120870532637255,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.38941695545888,
      "attention_level": "Stable",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": []
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "EST",
      "hs_code": "851770",
      "hs_description": "Telephone sets and other apparatus for the transmission or reception of voice, images or other data, via a wired or wireless network: parts",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 110442976.98994267,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.3497862914897116,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "EST",
      "hs_code": "100590",
      "hs_description": "Cereals: maize (corn), other than seed",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 13015515.267554283,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 19.315412181882046,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.4701842141208689,
      "attention_level": "Stable",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": []
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "EST",
      "hs_code": "220410",
      "hs_description": "Wine: sparkling",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 34808964.20858359,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.084162910366726,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "EST",
      "hs_code": "710812",
      "hs_description": "Metals: gold, non-monetary, unwrought (but not powder)",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 30046730.99617556,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 51.71780928939901,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.348779641314684,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "limited_history"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "EST",
      "hs_code": "550320",
      "hs_description": "Fibres: synthetic staple fibres, of polyesters, not carded, combed or otherwise processed for spinning",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 16148903.271102166,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The lane has limited historical coverage",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "limited_history"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
      "importer_iso3": "EST",
      "hs_code": "080830",
      "hs_description": "Fruit, edible: pears, fresh",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 34398888.611184,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 61.99389523715365,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6276803831652737,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "ZAF",
    "importer_iso3": "EST",
    "distance_km": 9495,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 0,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 0,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 1,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": 1,
    "exporter_is_wto": 1,
    "importer_is_wto": 1,
    "exporter_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_is_eu": 1,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 36262.924354,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 27280.658439997173,
    "importer_population": 1329.254,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 3.5,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 1,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 419946.428126,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 6994.21165355662,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 1.026340343562452,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 2.920070348183908,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 1.285126822049042,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 1.6349435261348662
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZAF-EST/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZAF-EST/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZAF-EST/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZAF-EST/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ZAF-EST/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}