{ "template": "Corridor pair risk profile", "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile", "source": "api", "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:47:57.438Z", "seo": { "title": "Uzbekistan exports to South Africa: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks", "description": "Understand reported exports from Uzbekistan to South Africa, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning." }, "publisher": { "name": "Yugalinks", "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com", "email": "support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" }, "exporter": { "iso3": "UZB", "country_name": "Uzbekistan" }, "importer": { "iso3": "ZAF", "country_name": "South Africa" }, "latestYear": 2024, "risk": { "exporter_iso3": "UZB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "all_history_lane_count": 11, "current_lane_count": 6, "current_product_count": 6, "first_observed_last_year": 2011, "latest_data_year": 2024, "current_trade_usd": 10342349.524029491, "attention_trade_usd": 8978664.357694652, "critical_trade_usd": 0, "high_volatility_trade_usd": 109713.34258127799, "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 109713.34258127799, "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0, "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 9513569.45573024, "access_friction_trade_usd": 10342349.524029491, "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 10342349.524029491, "critical_lane_count": 0, "high_attention_lane_count": 2, "high_volatility_lane_count": 1, "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 1, "declining_demand_lane_count": 0, "concentrated_market_lane_count": 5, "access_friction_lane_count": 6, "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 0.2602537832675632, "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 1.0124843536163648, "product_concentration_hhi": 3918.883292823061, "top1_product_share_pct": 49.46598244387223, "top3_product_share_pct": 94.8280117898473, "top_product_hs6": "310420", "top_product_trade_usd": 5115944.799840331, "top_product_description": "Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: potassic, potassium chloride", "top_attention_product_hs6": "310420", "top_attention_product_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "distance_km": 9848.6279296875, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "common_spoken_language_score": 0, "has_reported_fta": 0, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 9.672384831034481, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 9.672384831034481, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null, "tariff_advantage_pp": null, "buyer_biz_entry_days": 40, "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null, "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 419946.428126, "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 6994, "buyer_population_latest": 60041.996, "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 0.5997022185294298, "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": -0.829491262325488, "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 1.4411476748953822, "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 19.936, "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 19.216, "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend weakened", "attention_trade_share_pct": 86.81455153718753, "critical_trade_share_pct": 0, "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_product_mix", "concentrated_buyer_markets", "market_access_friction", "buyer_macro_weakness" ], "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Tariff, distance or agreement conditions create market-access friction", "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 419946.428126, "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 6994, "buyer_population_2024": 60041.996 }, "history": [ { "year": 2000, "exporter_iso3": "UZB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 0.9103452975189499, "yoy_growth_pct": null, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 2001, "exporter_iso3": "UZB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 2895.6926943351473, "yoy_growth_pct": 317987.29085843056, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 2002, "exporter_iso3": "UZB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 21252.124445562702, "yoy_growth_pct": 633.9219554318834, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 2003, "exporter_iso3": "UZB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 101136.24953796562, "yoy_growth_pct": 375.8877155882746, "cagr_3y_pct": 4707.2889894427435 }, { "year": 2004, "exporter_iso3": "UZB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 1028081.0428846851, "yoy_growth_pct": 916.5307173060169, "cagr_3y_pct": 608.0951616474358 }, { "year": 2005, "exporter_iso3": "UZB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 1722692.701208, "yoy_growth_pct": 67.56390103005003, "cagr_3y_pct": 332.78130065900575 }, { "year": 2006, "exporter_iso3": "UZB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 67481.2352182154, "yoy_growth_pct": -96.0828048339152, "cagr_3y_pct": -12.617313408754537 }, { "year": 2007, "exporter_iso3": "UZB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 1179046.3429046602, "yoy_growth_pct": 1647.2210446236716, "cagr_3y_pct": 4.672960621972022 }, { "year": 2008, "exporter_iso3": "UZB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 60197.40353956433, "yoy_growth_pct": -94.89439885871967, "cagr_3y_pct": -67.30685891808163 }, { "year": 2009, "exporter_iso3": "UZB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 425784.331161041, "yoy_growth_pct": 607.3134489616269, "cagr_3y_pct": 84.78592315422362 }, { "year": 2010, "exporter_iso3": "UZB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 152104.50500000003, "yoy_growth_pct": -64.27663164935237, "cagr_3y_pct": -49.47142305925652 }, { "year": 2011, "exporter_iso3": "UZB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 1620062.4675207671, "yoy_growth_pct": 965.0982806332836, "cagr_3y_pct": 199.67556564240937 }, { "year": 2012, "exporter_iso3": "UZB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 1363019.8014943148, "yoy_growth_pct": -15.866219431637896, "cagr_3y_pct": 47.37964177960821 }, { "year": 2013, "exporter_iso3": "UZB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 698182.4806038131, "yoy_growth_pct": -48.77679107534776, "cagr_3y_pct": 66.19155699552562 }, { "year": 2014, "exporter_iso3": "UZB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 1002653.7438436314, "yoy_growth_pct": 43.60912393225631, "cagr_3y_pct": -14.780351278027604 }, { "year": 2015, "exporter_iso3": "UZB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 320987.85001343087, "yoy_growth_pct": -67.98617149895263, "cagr_3y_pct": -38.24641954965586 }, { "year": 2016, "exporter_iso3": "UZB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 516492.548616446, "yoy_growth_pct": 60.907195893811796, "cagr_3y_pct": -9.559066190731292 }, { "year": 2017, "exporter_iso3": "UZB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 311375.1234722548, "yoy_growth_pct": -39.71353036818234, "cagr_3y_pct": -32.2809311791339 }, { "year": 2018, "exporter_iso3": "UZB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 27998.490797951243, "yoy_growth_pct": -91.0081157140204, "cagr_3y_pct": -55.651186075237604 }, { "year": 2019, "exporter_iso3": "UZB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 18.041734901273973, "yoy_growth_pct": -99.93556175926956, "cagr_3y_pct": -96.73107658775098 }, { "year": 2020, "exporter_iso3": "UZB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 108550.52081091369, "yoy_growth_pct": 601563.4287384894, "cagr_3y_pct": -29.619988589869017 }, { "year": 2021, "exporter_iso3": "UZB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 1909946.9763484686, "yoy_growth_pct": 1659.500518358123, "cagr_3y_pct": 308.5973661382351 }, { "year": 2022, "exporter_iso3": "UZB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 2344162.480916493, "yoy_growth_pct": 22.734427182799564, "cagr_3y_pct": 4964.887513146273 }, { "year": 2023, "exporter_iso3": "UZB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 4657373.023719823, "yoy_growth_pct": 98.6796163506097, "cagr_3y_pct": 250.0819375500304 }, { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "UZB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 11551948.885712555, "yoy_growth_pct": 148.0357237197648, "cagr_3y_pct": 82.19843796449598 } ], "riskLanes": [ { "exporter_iso3": "UZB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "hs_code": "310420", "hs_description": "Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: potassic, potassium chloride", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 130638514.4636464, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.43748754684503594, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "long_distance_without_fta", "buyer_macro_weakness", "limited_history" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "UZB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "hs_code": "740811", "hs_description": "Copper: wire, of refined copper, of which the maximum cross-sectional dimension exceeds 6mm", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 560201614.1703882, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "long_distance_without_fta", "buyer_macro_weakness", "limited_history" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "UZB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "hs_code": "310430", "hs_description": "Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: potassic, potassium sulphate", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 53892806.943806805, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer macroeconomic trend has weakened", "risk_driver_labels": [ "long_distance_without_fta", "buyer_macro_weakness", "limited_history" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "UZB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "hs_code": "520513", "hs_description": "Cotton yarn: (not sewing thread), single, of uncombed fibres, 85% or more by weight of cotton, less than 232.56 but not less than 192.31 decitex (exceeding 43 but not exceeding 52 metric number), not for retail sale", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 13209499.621184362, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9432608605992953, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "long_distance_without_fta", "buyer_macro_weakness", "limited_history" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "UZB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "hs_code": "283325", "hs_description": "Sulphates: of copper", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 10921990.275796544, "current_below_peak_pct": 95.44387971730997, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.164581626077223, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "long_distance_without_fta", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "UZB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "hs_code": "850164", "hs_description": "Electric generators: AC generators, (alternators), of an output exceeding 750kVA", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 33274197.518176276, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "long_distance_without_fta", "buyer_macro_weakness", "limited_history" ] } ], "accessProfile": { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "UZB", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "distance_km": 8592, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "shares_ethnic_language": 0, "shared_religion": 0, "shared_legal_system": 0, "shared_colonial_history": 0, "has_fta": 0, "rta_coverage_ratio": null, "exporter_is_wto": 0, "importer_is_wto": 1, "exporter_is_eu": 0, "importer_is_eu": 0, "importer_gdp_million_usd": 419946.428126, "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 6994.21165355662, "importer_population": 60041.996, "importer_biz_entry_days": 40, "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 0.2, "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 69238.90310600001, "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 1983.0647228849414, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 9.672384831034481, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 9.672384831034481, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null, "tariff_advantage_pp": null }, "sourceAttribution": { "publisher": "OECD", "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D", "year": 2025, "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)", "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/", "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0", "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/", "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions", "accessed": "2026-08-29", "supportingSources": [ { "publisher": "CEPII", "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows", "release": "202601", "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.", "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html", "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37", "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf", "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence", "accessed": "2026-08-29" } ] }, "links": { "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/UZB-ZAF/risk", "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/UZB-ZAF/risk/index.html", "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/UZB-ZAF/risk/index.md", "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/UZB-ZAF/risk/index.json", "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/UZB-ZAF/risk/index.ld.json", "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/", "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/", "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources", "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology", "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors", "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact", "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" } }