{ "template": "Corridor pair risk profile", "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile", "source": "api", "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:47:53.521Z", "seo": { "title": "United States exports to South Africa: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks", "description": "Understand reported exports from United States to South Africa, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning." }, "publisher": { "name": "Yugalinks", "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com", "email": "support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" }, "exporter": { "iso3": "USA", "country_name": "United States" }, "importer": { "iso3": "ZAF", "country_name": "South Africa" }, "latestYear": 2024, "risk": { "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "all_history_lane_count": 965, "current_lane_count": 946, "current_product_count": 946, "first_observed_last_year": 2003, "latest_data_year": 2024, "current_trade_usd": 6006811203.500892, "attention_trade_usd": 5858541617.859214, "critical_trade_usd": 1140703461.086531, "high_volatility_trade_usd": 1716584216.6961896, "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 1849424978.2102993, "declining_demand_trade_usd": 10482673.652004218, "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 2639450684.075178, "access_friction_trade_usd": 6006811203.500892, "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 6006811203.500892, "critical_lane_count": 30, "high_attention_lane_count": 447, "high_volatility_lane_count": 223, "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 600, "declining_demand_lane_count": 2, "concentrated_market_lane_count": 437, "access_friction_lane_count": 946, "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 0.884562611360795, "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 33.77327400651545, "product_concentration_hhi": 136.03155189458516, "top1_product_share_pct": 6.295008803972016, "top3_product_share_pct": 13.711468715789977, "top_product_hs6": "270900", "top_product_trade_usd": 378129294.0983585, "top_product_description": "Oils: petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude", "top_attention_product_hs6": "270900", "top_attention_product_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "distance_km": 12581.720703125, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 1, "common_spoken_language_score": 0.2783999741077423, "has_reported_fta": 0, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 11.33147539878788, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 11.33147539878788, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null, "tariff_advantage_pp": null, "buyer_biz_entry_days": 40, "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null, "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 419946.428126, "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 6994, "buyer_population_latest": 60041.996, "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 0.5997022185294298, "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": -0.829491262325488, "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 1.4411476748953822, "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 19.936, "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 19.216, "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend weakened", "attention_trade_share_pct": 97.53164232038351, "critical_trade_share_pct": 18.99016670312038, "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "declining_buyer_demand", "concentrated_buyer_markets", "market_access_friction", "buyer_macro_weakness" ], "attention_level": "Critical attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Tariff, distance or agreement conditions create market-access friction", "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 419946.428126, "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 6994, "buyer_population_2024": 60041.996 }, "history": [ { "year": 2000, "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 3098995833.6248016, "yoy_growth_pct": null, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 2001, "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 2944700197.429333, "yoy_growth_pct": -4.978891372531901, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 2002, "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 2705387429.494807, "yoy_growth_pct": -8.126897540993882, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 2003, "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 3006422571.9041953, "yoy_growth_pct": 11.127247030404174, "cagr_3y_pct": -1.0058167133254248 }, { "year": 2004, "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 3529927475.8458695, "yoy_growth_pct": 17.412884962811436, "cagr_3y_pct": 6.228626378789759 }, { "year": 2005, "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 3948021058.433742, "yoy_growth_pct": 11.844254179405933, "cagr_3y_pct": 13.427057079654725 }, { "year": 2006, "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 4651307102.945591, "yoy_growth_pct": 17.813634580532266, "cagr_3y_pct": 15.657818660653211 }, { "year": 2007, "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 5612756293.458508, "yoy_growth_pct": 20.670516249164628, "cagr_3y_pct": 16.717721510001347 }, { "year": 2008, "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 6558330134.381289, "yoy_growth_pct": 16.84687150990001, "cagr_3y_pct": 18.432602098466 }, { "year": 2009, "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 4550187807.591208, "yoy_growth_pct": -30.61972004523874, "cagr_3y_pct": -0.7299815636525708 }, { "year": 2010, "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 5967734351.06413, "yoy_growth_pct": 31.15358317975332, "cagr_3y_pct": 2.0652175753466118 }, { "year": 2011, "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 7893629312.247813, "yoy_growth_pct": 32.27179441793131, "cagr_3y_pct": 6.372120729784969 }, { "year": 2012, "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 7725217332.45175, "yoy_growth_pct": -2.133517715795874, "cagr_3y_pct": 19.296342245968077 }, { "year": 2013, "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 7322015287.331727, "yoy_growth_pct": -5.219297111891851, "cagr_3y_pct": 7.0550231081795145 }, { "year": 2014, "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 6482914828.926568, "yoy_growth_pct": -11.459965944853167, "cagr_3y_pct": -6.3521388845974585 }, { "year": 2015, "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 5684164286.608781, "yoy_growth_pct": -12.320855099835438, "cagr_3y_pct": -9.721298239969089 }, { "year": 2016, "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 4770045672.133203, "yoy_growth_pct": -16.081847187793883, "cagr_3y_pct": -13.311004890524568 }, { "year": 2017, "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 5269280356.224944, "yoy_growth_pct": 10.466035723898637, "cagr_3y_pct": -6.675931581349759 }, { "year": 2018, "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 5493755441.615036, "yoy_growth_pct": 4.260071019468614, "cagr_3y_pct": -1.1293095542123988 }, { "year": 2019, "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 5528516398.463404, "yoy_growth_pct": 0.6327357891662722, "cagr_3y_pct": 5.041767677716846 }, { "year": 2020, "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 4434247905.103711, "yoy_growth_pct": -19.79316718068944, "cagr_3y_pct": -5.588936938474198 }, { "year": 2021, "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 6057909136.353474, "yoy_growth_pct": 36.6163837926375, "cagr_3y_pct": 3.3120892234597354 }, { "year": 2022, "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 7342564043.62785, "yoy_growth_pct": 21.20624258896804, "cagr_3y_pct": 9.920757781904976 }, { "year": 2023, "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 8250273877.415799, "yoy_growth_pct": 12.362300531456638, "cagr_3y_pct": 22.993680801048132 }, { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 6424878120.4451065, "yoy_growth_pct": -22.125274676850538, "cagr_3y_pct": 1.9797742356593595 } ], "riskLanes": [ { "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "hs_code": "270900", "hs_description": "Oils: petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 4908365760.846344, "current_below_peak_pct": 4.306904847144166, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.2821308443538864, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "long_distance_without_fta", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "hs_code": "490700", "hs_description": "Unused postage, revenue or similar stamps of current or new issue in the country in which they have, or will have, a recognised face value: stamp-impressed paper: cheque forms: banknotes, stock, share or bond certificates and the like of similar title", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 305749856.9715401, "current_below_peak_pct": 74.98803680116949, "lane_volatility_cv": 2.560911576800414, "attention_level": "Critical attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "long_distance_without_fta", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "hs_code": "870840", "hs_description": "Vehicles: parts, gear boxes", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 721602492.468056, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.2093280688599797, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "long_distance_without_fta", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "hs_code": "880240", "hs_description": "Aeroplanes and other aircraft: of an unladen weight exceeding 15,000kg", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 235826914.1143773, "current_below_peak_pct": 64.78735903142066, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6756953611759932, "attention_level": "Critical attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "long_distance_without_fta", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "hs_code": "271112", "hs_description": "Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons: liquefied, propane", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 156782844.39475217, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 2.0938440911764142, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "long_distance_without_fta", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "hs_code": "271113", "hs_description": "Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons: liquefied, butanes", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 200725779.46045342, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.3801701009944791, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "long_distance_without_fta", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "hs_code": "382200", "hs_description": "Reagents: diagnostic or laboratory reagents on a backing and prepared diagnostic or laboratory reagents whether or not on a backing, other than those of heading no. 3002 or 3006: certified reference material", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 338883599.9373213, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6004960706297214, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer macroeconomic trend has weakened", "risk_driver_labels": [ "long_distance_without_fta", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "hs_code": "880330", "hs_description": "Aircraft and spacecraft: parts of aeroplanes or helicopters n.e.c. in heading no. 8803", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 204540286.21523455, "current_below_peak_pct": 6.38252259118665, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.2538691915109132, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "long_distance_without_fta", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "hs_code": "271012", "hs_description": "", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 11192877591.131302, "current_below_peak_pct": 24.048900946547395, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6363668427135958, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer macroeconomic trend has weakened", "risk_driver_labels": [ "long_distance_without_fta", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "hs_code": "300490", "hs_description": "Medicaments: consisting of mixed or unmixed products n.e.s. in heading no. 3004, for therapeutic or prophylactic uses, packaged for retail sale", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 1421521846.6090708, "current_below_peak_pct": 30.055923281620494, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.35644283831011814, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer macroeconomic trend has weakened", "risk_driver_labels": [ "long_distance_without_fta", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] } ], "accessProfile": { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "distance_km": 12833, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 1, "shares_ethnic_language": 1, "shared_religion": 0, "shared_legal_system": 1, "shared_colonial_history": 0, "has_fta": 0, "rta_coverage_ratio": null, "exporter_is_wto": 1, "importer_is_wto": 1, "exporter_is_eu": 0, "importer_is_eu": 0, "importer_gdp_million_usd": 419946.428126, "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 6994.21165355662, "importer_population": 60041.996, "importer_biz_entry_days": 40, "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 0.2, "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 22996100, "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 69287.53804930179, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 11.33147539878788, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 11.33147539878788, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null, "tariff_advantage_pp": null }, "sourceAttribution": { "publisher": "OECD", "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D", "year": 2025, "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)", "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/", "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0", "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/", "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions", "accessed": "2026-08-29", "supportingSources": [ { "publisher": "CEPII", "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows", "release": "202601", "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.", "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html", "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37", "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf", "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence", "accessed": "2026-08-29" } ] }, "links": { "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/USA-ZAF/risk", "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/USA-ZAF/risk/index.html", "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/USA-ZAF/risk/index.md", "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/USA-ZAF/risk/index.json", "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/USA-ZAF/risk/index.ld.json", "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/", "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/", "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources", "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology", "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors", "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact", "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" } }