{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:47:57.433Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "United States exports to New Caledonia: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from United States to New Caledonia, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "USA",
    "country_name": "United States"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "NCL",
    "country_name": "New Caledonia"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "USA",
    "importer_iso3": "NCL",
    "all_history_lane_count": 9,
    "current_lane_count": 6,
    "current_product_count": 6,
    "first_observed_last_year": 2020,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 10804763,
    "attention_trade_usd": 10317136,
    "critical_trade_usd": 0,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 0,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 5949473,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 10804763,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 10804763,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 10804763,
    "critical_lane_count": 0,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 2,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 0,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 5,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 0,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 6,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 6,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 0.48815983282258585,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 55.00618183880841,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 4580.556041318466,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 50.55035450569346,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 97.15909548409346,
    "top_product_hs6": "999999",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 5461846,
    "top_product_description": "Commodities not specified according to kind",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "999999",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
    "distance_km": 14065.6904296875,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "common_spoken_language_score": 0.009700000286102295,
    "has_reported_fta": 0,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": null,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": null,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": null,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 9435.529927,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 34695,
    "buyer_population_latest": 272.62,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": -2.0373796350958373,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": -2.6497579926365367,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 0.6290465692878167,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": null,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": null,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer economy and income contracted",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 95.48692553459988,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 0,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "concentrated_product_mix",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets",
      "market_access_friction",
      "buyer_macro_weakness"
    ],
    "attention_level": "High attention",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Buyer-market concentration is the largest observed corridor exposure",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 9435.529927,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 34695,
    "buyer_population_2024": 272.62
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 1995,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "NCL",
      "export_value_usd": 30277615.52140658,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1996,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "NCL",
      "export_value_usd": 35268987.782935314,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 16.48535452866089,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1997,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "NCL",
      "export_value_usd": 38965938.70337668,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 10.482157705218054,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1998,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "NCL",
      "export_value_usd": 28350017.16375172,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -27.24410573151421,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -2.1688364576341823
    },
    {
      "year": 1999,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "NCL",
      "export_value_usd": 44128171.26516938,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 55.65483086053147,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 7.755880041091756
    },
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "NCL",
      "export_value_usd": 25256253.174920507,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -42.76614586370723,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -13.45780095649941
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "NCL",
      "export_value_usd": 29588661.865634967,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 17.153806072139588,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 1.4356616111704135
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "NCL",
      "export_value_usd": 39708451.904880844,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 34.20158060949441,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -3.456655026449418
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "NCL",
      "export_value_usd": 48682716.28201036,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 22.600388447846864,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 24.452022796030782
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "NCL",
      "export_value_usd": 48935479.232455365,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 0.5192046988109489,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 18.258629137697312
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "NCL",
      "export_value_usd": 46970587.34731125,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -4.015270548001382,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 5.758271718892871
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "NCL",
      "export_value_usd": 53101392.17347302,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 13.052433815292108,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 2.938310283332868
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "NCL",
      "export_value_usd": 63762189.10821604,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 20.076304025920912,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 9.22275438752358
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "NCL",
      "export_value_usd": 102263916.07873805,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 60.38332044274321,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 29.60809963740061
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "NCL",
      "export_value_usd": 87334755.29789324,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -14.598659383775313,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 18.03941998737415
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "NCL",
      "export_value_usd": 110412643.54309459,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 26.424632629340007,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 20.08401396770678
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "NCL",
      "export_value_usd": 132528824.7205584,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 20.03047881815434,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 9.02580676521605
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "NCL",
      "export_value_usd": 94132717.57868682,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -28.97189137746532,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 2.5300485495924008
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "NCL",
      "export_value_usd": 96759663.69055143,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 2.7906833877059833,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -4.304426964179209
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "NCL",
      "export_value_usd": 137203194.14951777,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 41.79792375912903,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 1.1621284869703485
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "NCL",
      "export_value_usd": 96667644.37771176,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -29.544173532601747,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 0.8897036390930868
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "NCL",
      "export_value_usd": 77884114.8219881,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -19.431040940989863,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -6.978177067039892
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "NCL",
      "export_value_usd": 74342042.95172417,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -4.547874593374646,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -18.475134716514006
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "NCL",
      "export_value_usd": 83111453.94985025,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 11.796031760683135,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -4.911809846862347
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "NCL",
      "export_value_usd": 92261910.2443583,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 11.009861889829864,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 5.809464871556491
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "NCL",
      "export_value_usd": 74193297.16936663,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -19.584043975608612,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -0.06673886084350711
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "NCL",
      "export_value_usd": 57513722.54456515,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -22.481241919638318,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -11.548840037533504
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "NCL",
      "export_value_usd": 77062647.37185216,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 33.990018316305836,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -5.82394499570843
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "NCL",
      "export_value_usd": 63364091.877457835,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -17.775869323946747,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -5.1233122792685215
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "NCL",
      "export_value_usd": 29394518,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -53.61013291747769,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -20.047578485206497
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "NCL",
      "hs_code": "999999",
      "hs_description": "Commodities not specified according to kind",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 18743685.65792763,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 62.188449166260185,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.37894488822382016,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "long_distance_without_fta",
        "buyer_macro_weakness",
        "limited_history"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "NCL",
      "hs_code": "020714",
      "hs_description": "Meat and edible offal: of fowls of the species Gallus domesticus, cuts and offal, frozen",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 12826328.056999996,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 43.967900438310295,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6024014880457859,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "long_distance_without_fta",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "NCL",
      "hs_code": "843149",
      "hs_description": "Machinery: parts of machines handling earth, minerals or ores and n.e.c. in heading no. 8431",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 16937666.645999998,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 90.08711610614824,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.5867964275832352,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "long_distance_without_fta",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "NCL",
      "hs_code": "210690",
      "hs_description": "Food preparations: n.e.s. in item no. 2106.10",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 19945918.184418604,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 72.87570492706428,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.5655452445897416,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "long_distance_without_fta",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "NCL",
      "hs_code": "190590",
      "hs_description": "Food preparations: bakers' wares n.e.c. in heading no. 1605, whether or not containing cocoa: communion wafers, empty cachets suitable for pharmaceutical use, sealing wafers, rice papers and similar products",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 12058074.651229406,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 85.6749592182531,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.5909044344955426,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "long_distance_without_fta",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "NCL",
      "hs_code": "901890",
      "hs_description": "Medical, surgical or dental instruments and appliances: n.e.c. in heading no. 9018",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 10293886.434990726,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 96.37793776981579,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.5147601236496946,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "long_distance_without_fta",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "USA",
    "importer_iso3": "NCL",
    "distance_km": 14052,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 0,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 0,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 0,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": null,
    "exporter_is_wto": 1,
    "importer_is_wto": 0,
    "exporter_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 9435.529927,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 34610.556551243484,
    "importer_population": 272.62,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": null,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 22996100,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 69287.53804930179,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": null,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": null,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/USA-NCL/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/USA-NCL/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/USA-NCL/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/USA-NCL/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/USA-NCL/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}