{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:47:53.524Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "United States exports to Italy: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from United States to Italy, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "USA",
    "country_name": "United States"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "ITA",
    "country_name": "Italy"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "USA",
    "importer_iso3": "ITA",
    "all_history_lane_count": 2192,
    "current_lane_count": 2064,
    "current_product_count": 2064,
    "first_observed_last_year": 1995,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 28606331495.41686,
    "attention_trade_usd": 12981853666.97909,
    "critical_trade_usd": 719280385.8042294,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 16012497409.73704,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 3989402593.339291,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 97957871.86763737,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 12869154735.627716,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 0,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0,
    "critical_lane_count": 14,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 221,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 692,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 1273,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 17,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 610,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 0,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 1.5722532689249933,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 22.795000852515013,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 653.5232969538487,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 21.07344362083858,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 37.924693107575465,
    "top_product_hs6": "293719",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 6028339139.676863,
    "top_product_description": "Polypeptide hormones, protein hormones and glycoprotein hormones, their derivatives and structural analogues: other than somatotropin, (its derivatives and structural anaologues) and insulin and its salts",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "293719",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
    "distance_km": 6895.10693359375,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "common_spoken_language_score": 0.28511086106300354,
    "has_reported_fta": 0,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 5.920413126868688,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 5.920413126868688,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": 11,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 2099880.198259,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 35551,
    "buyer_population_latest": 59066.223,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 3.3456337761183397,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 3.6164129413341017,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": -0.26132844935394806,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 21.387999999999998,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 22.601999999999997,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 45.381050237283894,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 2.5144097414919084,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "high_volatility",
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "declining_buyer_demand",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets"
    ],
    "attention_level": "Watch",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Volatile products account for the largest observed corridor exposure",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 2099880.198259,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 35551,
    "buyer_population_2024": 59066.223
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 1995,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 9080457648.885246,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1996,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 9117411113.900017,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 0.4069559756088692,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1997,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 9287845127.243889,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 1.8693246494504878,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1998,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 9464898291.701862,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 1.9062889403552497,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 1.3917778130422276
    },
    {
      "year": 1999,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 10131779346.354294,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 7.0458343460183315,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 3.578923957339941
    },
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 11110541774.519367,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 9.660321200315725,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 6.154910994941232
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 10088754397.58612,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -9.196557626708968,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 2.1505084645502714
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 10397759144.308327,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 3.062863209318878,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 0.8675200674185035
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 10523506396.547884,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 1.2093687735437841,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -1.7931583552826535
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 10864834172.507542,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 3.2434795314195464,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 2.5010979768194996
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 11742864000.622463,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 8.08139189401247,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 4.138525933854886
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 12193059649.696194,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 3.833780660747377,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 5.030978055157398
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 13538455784.391582,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 11.03411426949683,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 7.609019994274613
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 15216526239.901634,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 12.394843859849146,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 9.021920800358863
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 12153181573.170027,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -20.13169509542021,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -0.10913757859903894
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 13847847324.546356,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 13.944214864011894,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 0.7560295858809463
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 16290972974.382782,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 17.64263854574566,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 2.3003614060311373
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 15338426304.931753,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -5.84708274299447,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 8.067956474343463
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 15066385480.428175,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -1.7735901916881125,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 2.8510988599757425
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 15836633648.517004,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 5.112362013366845,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -0.9384127508421214
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 15266601594.930992,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -3.599452170438955,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -0.15633310198815975
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 14996173428.830622,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -1.7713710835957186,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -0.1555812260546796
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 16333188266.828466,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 8.915706692397873,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 1.0344230829588463
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 19432719283.892784,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 18.9768890582082,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 8.375322199633084
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 19953722077.40006,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 2.681059639137162,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 9.988637330375427
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 17302411642.88407,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -13.287297599072545,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 1.9401396089409273
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 19151046495.1686,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 10.68426119109709,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -0.48551239465519647
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 25263730745.89759,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 31.918277950351648,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 8.182709663172405
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 26629625558.888542,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 5.406544372757582,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 15.456788517315424
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 28836722577.765472,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 8.28812637262275,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 14.617552262702183
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "hs_code": "293719",
      "hs_description": "Polypeptide hormones, protein hormones and glycoprotein hormones, their derivatives and structural analogues: other than somatotropin, (its derivatives and structural anaologues) and insulin and its salts",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 9098538323.873314,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 3.617512134740705,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "hs_code": "270900",
      "hs_description": "Oils: petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 38899590405.9718,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 26.90724179988741,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.377722840121671,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "hs_code": "271111",
      "hs_description": "Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons: liquefied, natural gas",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 4961239217.865049,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 41.02995810767116,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.6210753788377827,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "hs_code": "300215",
      "hs_description": "Blood, human or animal, antisera, other blood fractions and immunological products: immunological products, put up in measured doses or in forms or packings for retail sale",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 6361787263.336785,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 46.89119507050632,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.5399566073229541,
      "attention_level": "Stable",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": []
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "hs_code": "711299",
      "hs_description": "Waste and scrap of precious metals: waste and scrap of precious metals including metal clad with precious metals, other than that of gold and platinum and excluding ash which contains precious metal or precious metal compounds",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 1751529279.7480087,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 23.822961460013747,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8671732631649588,
      "attention_level": "Stable",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": []
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "hs_code": "300214",
      "hs_description": "Blood, human or animal, antisera, other blood fractions and immunological products: immunological products, mixed, put up in measured doses or in forms or packings for retail sale",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 2245058892.8295374,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8800376432720954,
      "attention_level": "Stable",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": []
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "hs_code": "880320",
      "hs_description": "Aircraft and spacecraft: under-carriages and parts thereof",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 733141628.205676,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 2.8587340553914355,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "hs_code": "120190",
      "hs_description": "Soya beans: other than seed, whether or not broken",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 1200575630.0718093,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 26.421793681059263,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.195673743138814,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "hs_code": "270112",
      "hs_description": "Coal: bituminous, whether or not pulverised, but not agglomerated",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 604100390.0246077,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 68.90498033215253,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6035114875567796,
      "attention_level": "Critical attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "USA",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "hs_code": "841199",
      "hs_description": "Turbines: parts of gas turbines (excluding turbo-jets and turbo-propellers)",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 1157224391.8597512,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.3922617158143395,
      "attention_level": "Stable",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": []
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "USA",
    "importer_iso3": "ITA",
    "distance_km": 6907,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 0,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 0,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 0,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": null,
    "exporter_is_wto": 1,
    "importer_is_wto": 1,
    "exporter_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_is_eu": 1,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 2099880.198259,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 35551.286193786254,
    "importer_population": 59066.223,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 11,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 13.8,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 22996100,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 69287.53804930179,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 5.920413126868688,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 5.920413126868688,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/USA-ITA/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/USA-ITA/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/USA-ITA/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/USA-ITA/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/USA-ITA/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}