{ "template": "Corridor pair risk profile", "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile", "source": "api", "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:47:53.571Z", "seo": { "title": "United States exports to Bulgaria: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks", "description": "Understand reported exports from United States to Bulgaria, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning." }, "publisher": { "name": "Yugalinks", "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com", "email": "support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" }, "exporter": { "iso3": "USA", "country_name": "United States" }, "importer": { "iso3": "BGR", "country_name": "Bulgaria" }, "latestYear": 2024, "risk": { "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "all_history_lane_count": 500, "current_lane_count": 440, "current_product_count": 440, "first_observed_last_year": 1997, "latest_data_year": 2024, "current_trade_usd": 578335372.1886563, "attention_trade_usd": 426046220.4789652, "critical_trade_usd": 37941016.40567137, "high_volatility_trade_usd": 424334168.5823677, "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 140550656.3882059, "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0, "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 202943178.85214865, "access_friction_trade_usd": 578335372.1886563, "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0, "critical_lane_count": 2, "high_attention_lane_count": 72, "high_volatility_lane_count": 313, "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 210, "declining_demand_lane_count": 0, "concentrated_market_lane_count": 101, "access_friction_lane_count": 440, "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 1.615884302561349, "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 19.349101008349653, "product_concentration_hhi": 264.479583773908, "top1_product_share_pct": 8.011622235805525, "top3_product_share_pct": 20.23036272664214, "top_product_hs6": "841112", "top_product_trade_usd": 46334045.275795035, "top_product_description": "Turbo-jets: of a thrust exceeding 25kN", "top_attention_product_hs6": "841112", "top_attention_product_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "distance_km": 7588.9033203125, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "common_spoken_language_score": 0.2267998307943344, "has_reported_fta": 0, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 15.10011210666667, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 15.10011210666667, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null, "tariff_advantage_pp": null, "buyer_biz_entry_days": 23, "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null, "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 80271.119426, "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 11635, "buyer_population_latest": 6899.125, "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 10.593931268104285, "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 11.189451881330982, "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": -0.5355909244541324, "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 25.716, "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 23.028, "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient", "attention_trade_share_pct": 73.66767466887474, "critical_trade_share_pct": 6.560383166965411, "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_markets", "market_access_friction" ], "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Tariff, distance or agreement conditions create market-access friction", "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 80271.119426, "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 11635, "buyer_population_2024": 6899.125 }, "history": [ { "year": 1995, "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 146610585.97787502, "yoy_growth_pct": null, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1996, "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 169916278.08766264, "yoy_growth_pct": 15.896322870781422, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1997, "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 134724323.42777848, "yoy_growth_pct": -20.71134976351591, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1998, "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 143306849.17723757, "yoy_growth_pct": 6.370435219932591, "cagr_3y_pct": -0.7568502554111456 }, { "year": 1999, "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 122890089.69647135, "yoy_growth_pct": -14.246883242485776, "cagr_3y_pct": -10.23770286482839 }, { "year": 2000, "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 143878009.8774329, "yoy_growth_pct": 17.07861084063007, "cagr_3y_pct": 2.2153539654298005 }, { "year": 2001, "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 142705042.29391566, "yoy_growth_pct": -0.815251465124156, "cagr_3y_pct": -0.14017735897586814 }, { "year": 2002, "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 124235100.26463902, "yoy_growth_pct": -12.942739606380481, "cagr_3y_pct": 0.3635045547720095 }, { "year": 2003, "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 200891677.8209074, "yoy_growth_pct": 61.70283389555657, "cagr_3y_pct": 11.769294075564085 }, { "year": 2004, "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 231661550.1801379, "yoy_growth_pct": 15.316648600377292, "cagr_3y_pct": 17.527152276530433 }, { "year": 2005, "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 338749477.8534045, "yoy_growth_pct": 46.22602567840715, "cagr_3y_pct": 39.704836012348466 }, { "year": 2006, "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 354535561.0931885, "yoy_growth_pct": 4.660105556418159, "cagr_3y_pct": 20.84609436671876 }, { "year": 2007, "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 392304857.7868389, "yoy_growth_pct": 10.653175827324922, "cagr_3y_pct": 19.194598731189714 }, { "year": 2008, "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 581811727.6095862, "yoy_growth_pct": 48.306021722962456, "cagr_3y_pct": 19.757102248103763 }, { "year": 2009, "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 305608551.66057855, "yoy_growth_pct": -47.47294749176122, "cagr_3y_pct": -4.829598842573635 }, { "year": 2010, "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 168529824.91327015, "yoy_growth_pct": -44.854349134691, "cagr_3y_pct": -24.54563627514712 }, { "year": 2011, "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 257499848.8548305, "yoy_growth_pct": 52.79185686411687, "cagr_3y_pct": -23.792420270617743 }, { "year": 2012, "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 230738953.54885894, "yoy_growth_pct": -10.39258680150078, "cagr_3y_pct": -8.941923517349803 }, { "year": 2013, "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 279118511.2002443, "yoy_growth_pct": 20.9672259093179, "cagr_3y_pct": 18.314314037642433 }, { "year": 2014, "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 349349757.43519926, "yoy_growth_pct": 25.16180167805848, "cagr_3y_pct": 10.703450069255972 }, { "year": 2015, "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 270480231.3830893, "yoy_growth_pct": -22.576092976603668, "cagr_3y_pct": 5.439872040264149 }, { "year": 2016, "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 238317561.91668245, "yoy_growth_pct": -11.890950145208167, "cagr_3y_pct": -5.131404924124128 }, { "year": 2017, "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 319882065.1824941, "yoy_growth_pct": 34.22513330944834, "cagr_3y_pct": -2.8946521360971866 }, { "year": 2018, "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 348864770.83240324, "yoy_growth_pct": 9.060434705326292, "cagr_3y_pct": 8.853031589422343 }, { "year": 2019, "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 398124188.63994867, "yoy_growth_pct": 14.119917494108325, "cagr_3y_pct": 18.65539947422581 }, { "year": 2020, "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 394275970.9120742, "yoy_growth_pct": -0.9665872704244682, "cagr_3y_pct": 7.2186018282424325 }, { "year": 2021, "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 324432085.9498527, "yoy_growth_pct": -17.714466545007145, "cagr_3y_pct": -2.3912177954377056 }, { "year": 2022, "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 613441749.2448639, "yoy_growth_pct": 89.08171411248247, "cagr_3y_pct": 15.500781209775404 }, { "year": 2023, "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 501421985.6695869, "yoy_growth_pct": -18.260864004311962, "cagr_3y_pct": 8.343040883043319 }, { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "export_value_usd": 696028181.2851312, "yoy_growth_pct": 38.81086214352405, "cagr_3y_pct": 28.97365524869484 } ], "riskLanes": [ { "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "hs_code": "841112", "hs_description": "Turbo-jets: of a thrust exceeding 25kN", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 69353202.3366546, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 2.2260810063731142, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "long_distance_without_fta" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "hs_code": "880330", "hs_description": "Aircraft and spacecraft: parts of aeroplanes or helicopters n.e.c. in heading no. 8803", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 104229126.55385543, "current_below_peak_pct": 3.4868133513519535, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.34913728599791, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "long_distance_without_fta" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "hs_code": "870195", "hs_description": "Tractors: n.e.c. in heading no 8701 (other than tractors of heading no 8709): of an engine power exceeding 130kW", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 116999646.83044611, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.063317463551869, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "long_distance_without_fta" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "hs_code": "300490", "hs_description": "Medicaments: consisting of mixed or unmixed products n.e.s. in heading no. 3004, for therapeutic or prophylactic uses, packaged for retail sale", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 1349572571.2349443, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.793115583501703, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "long_distance_without_fta" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "hs_code": "880390", "hs_description": "Aircraft and spacecraft: parts thereof n.e.c. in chapter 88", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 38884863.05518032, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 3.2632862982468667, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "long_distance_without_fta" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "hs_code": "300215", "hs_description": "Blood, human or animal, antisera, other blood fractions and immunological products: immunological products, put up in measured doses or in forms or packings for retail sale", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 405714320.6972681, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 2.508988932829407, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "long_distance_without_fta" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "hs_code": "271311", "hs_description": "Petroleum coke: (not calcined), obtained from bituminous minerals", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 31665092.347311586, "current_below_peak_pct": 50.70104765939255, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7918240947311656, "attention_level": "Critical attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "long_distance_without_fta" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "hs_code": "841480", "hs_description": "Pumps and compressors: for air, vacuum or gas, n.e.s. in heading no. 8414", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 42929444.915866494, "current_below_peak_pct": 79.84572430838648, "lane_volatility_cv": 2.9342924485409356, "attention_level": "Critical attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "long_distance_without_fta" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "hs_code": "870332", "hs_description": "Vehicles: compression-ignition internal combustion piston engine (diesel or semi-diesel), cylinder capacity exceeding 1500cc but not exceeding 2500cc", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 436204036.91023123, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 2.980329042609136, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "long_distance_without_fta" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "hs_code": "220830", "hs_description": "Whiskies", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 101853184.21106683, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6769621376182127, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified", "risk_driver_labels": [ "long_distance_without_fta" ] } ], "accessProfile": { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "USA", "importer_iso3": "BGR", "distance_km": 7603, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "shares_ethnic_language": 0, "shared_religion": 0, "shared_legal_system": 0, "shared_colonial_history": 0, "has_fta": 0, "rta_coverage_ratio": null, "exporter_is_wto": 1, "importer_is_wto": 1, "exporter_is_eu": 0, "importer_is_eu": 1, "importer_gdp_million_usd": 80271.119426, "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 11634.971018208831, "importer_population": 6899.125, "importer_biz_entry_days": 23, "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 1, "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 22996100, "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 69287.53804930179, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 15.10011210666667, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 15.10011210666667, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null, "tariff_advantage_pp": null }, "sourceAttribution": { "publisher": "OECD", "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D", "year": 2025, "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)", "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/", "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0", "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/", "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions", "accessed": "2026-08-29", "supportingSources": [ { "publisher": "CEPII", "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows", "release": "202601", "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.", "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html", "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37", "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf", "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence", "accessed": "2026-08-29" } ] }, "links": { "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/USA-BGR/risk", "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/USA-BGR/risk/index.html", "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/USA-BGR/risk/index.md", "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/USA-BGR/risk/index.json", "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/USA-BGR/risk/index.ld.json", "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/", "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/", "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources", "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology", "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors", "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact", "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" } }