{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:47:57.384Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "Ukraine exports to Turkmenistan: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from Ukraine to Turkmenistan, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "UKR",
    "country_name": "Ukraine"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "TKM",
    "country_name": "Turkmenistan"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
    "importer_iso3": "TKM",
    "all_history_lane_count": 65,
    "current_lane_count": 15,
    "current_product_count": 15,
    "first_observed_last_year": 1995,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 50342447.3,
    "attention_trade_usd": 47308508.50999999,
    "critical_trade_usd": 0,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 40713128.49999999,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 4042403.7499999986,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 46509348.13999999,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 0,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0,
    "critical_lane_count": 0,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 5,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 10,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 11,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 0,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 10,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 0,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 1.1266090326346054,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 13.65175855610742,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 3569.3980538729925,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 53.873420551805395,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 89.50692961245845,
    "top_product_hs6": "730429",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 27121198.349999998,
    "top_product_description": "Iron or steel: casing and tubing, of a kind used in drilling for oil or gas",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "730429",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
    "distance_km": 2599.0634765625,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "common_spoken_language_score": 0.09959999471902847,
    "has_reported_fta": 1,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 2.7222813899616867,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 2.7222813899616867,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": null,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 45231.428571000004,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 7612,
    "buyer_population_latest": 6117.933,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 4.7170849124341885,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 2.711998715992592,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 1.952144074214579,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 36.456,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 54.25600000000001,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 93.97339828967749,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 0,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "high_volatility",
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "concentrated_product_mix",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets"
    ],
    "attention_level": "High attention",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Buyer-market concentration is the largest observed corridor exposure",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 45231.428571000004,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 7612,
    "buyer_population_2024": 6117.933
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 1995,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "TKM",
      "export_value_usd": 211659800.70247278,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1996,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "TKM",
      "export_value_usd": 262048540.00847942,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 23.806475834699192,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1997,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "TKM",
      "export_value_usd": 212940011.43717697,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -18.740241242982457,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1998,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "TKM",
      "export_value_usd": 142786005.79701775,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -32.945431516921154,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -12.296736498317085
    },
    {
      "year": 1999,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "TKM",
      "export_value_usd": 127308419.07185274,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -10.83970844255402,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -21.387466364296724
    },
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "TKM",
      "export_value_usd": 166783588.0217407,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 31.00750856674155,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -7.8209955872139965
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "TKM",
      "export_value_usd": 169862608.26608756,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 1.8461170435699614,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 5.958885373451328
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "TKM",
      "export_value_usd": 169946217.40383077,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 0.04922162599330093,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 10.107810275781981
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "TKM",
      "export_value_usd": 224573382.0056614,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 32.14379551150826,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 10.425232481026981
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "TKM",
      "export_value_usd": 297199781.07230896,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 32.33971827739437,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 20.499034066230703
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "TKM",
      "export_value_usd": 223586552.29718703,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -24.768937752754184,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 9.57497801034104
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "TKM",
      "export_value_usd": 107249441.52429716,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -52.032248620327024,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -21.83501419883197
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "TKM",
      "export_value_usd": 196540297.12596068,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 83.25531054764032,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -12.876688488503296
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "TKM",
      "export_value_usd": 376927667.88136864,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 91.78136666792538,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 19.015660938463498
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "TKM",
      "export_value_usd": 325164734.822259,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -13.73285578903194,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 44.73363396222418
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "TKM",
      "export_value_usd": 208937434.0456529,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -35.74412853845854,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 2.0598399310868487
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "TKM",
      "export_value_usd": 241899845.075508,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 15.776211276076445,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -13.743362498318035
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "TKM",
      "export_value_usd": 528157723.6265169,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 118.33735505769121,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 17.549304921334773
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "TKM",
      "export_value_usd": 395087434.25245225,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -25.195180042120214,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 23.658978160516387
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "TKM",
      "export_value_usd": 431254927.3005248,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 9.15430102617798,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 21.254954588369813
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "TKM",
      "export_value_usd": 170325739.93307197,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -60.50462750669545,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -31.423989418833465
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "TKM",
      "export_value_usd": 108978406.14,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -36.01765289097108,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -34.90478312983677
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "TKM",
      "export_value_usd": 62192339.819999956,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -42.93150173245876,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -47.559405230627796
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "TKM",
      "export_value_usd": 56715914.76999998,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -8.80562632930375,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -30.688033776659896
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "TKM",
      "export_value_usd": 54931680.52999997,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -3.145914594229171,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -20.41568584894302
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "TKM",
      "export_value_usd": 57296952.85859954,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 4.305843742224158,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -2.6958096586665814
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "TKM",
      "export_value_usd": 52522678.419999994,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -8.332510195405607,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -2.5278285383892096
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "TKM",
      "export_value_usd": 22284688.220000003,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -57.571302739362466,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -25.972248419624243
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "TKM",
      "export_value_usd": 40180952.39,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 80.30744694888084,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -11.155700646928468
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "TKM",
      "export_value_usd": 59414128.36000001,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 47.86640143150676,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 4.195178188532078
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "TKM",
      "hs_code": "730429",
      "hs_description": "Iron or steel: casing and tubing, of a kind used in drilling for oil or gas",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 58142687.172,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.2515383013920074,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "TKM",
      "hs_code": "020714",
      "hs_description": "Meat and edible offal: of fowls of the species Gallus domesticus, cuts and offal, frozen",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 58640477.757,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.1494188730458619,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "TKM",
      "hs_code": "730419",
      "hs_description": "Iron or steel (excluding cast iron or stainless steel): seamless, line pipe of a kind used for oil or gas pipelines",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 13691429.090999998,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 39.85313038638355,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7056973132300469,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "TKM",
      "hs_code": "300490",
      "hs_description": "Medicaments: consisting of mixed or unmixed products n.e.s. in heading no. 3004, for therapeutic or prophylactic uses, packaged for retail sale",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 72011506.5970665,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 33.28791951008028,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.4588844540634333,
      "attention_level": "Stable",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": []
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "TKM",
      "hs_code": "841490",
      "hs_description": "Pumps and compressors: parts, of air or vacuum pumps, air or other gas compressors and fans, ventilating or recycling hoods incorporating a fan",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 10630125.36131192,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 93.61874816091427,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.4501999406777122,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "TKM",
      "hs_code": "841391",
      "hs_description": "Pumps: parts thereof",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 25057922.57150237,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 65.78295605818144,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.1335005150207345,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "TKM",
      "hs_code": "854449",
      "hs_description": "Insulated electric conductors: for a voltage not exceeding 80 volts, not fitted with connectors",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 42027225.10718447,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 83.70828809588967,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9244511792379482,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "TKM",
      "hs_code": "853710",
      "hs_description": "Boards, panels, consoles, desks and other bases: for electric control or the distribution of electricity, (other than switching apparatus of heading no. 8517), for a voltage not exceeding 1000 volts",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 34319218.79745882,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 84.87587697416296,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0602731253133906,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "TKM",
      "hs_code": "848180",
      "hs_description": "Taps, cocks, valves and similar appliances: for pipes, boiler shells, tanks, vats or the like, including thermostatically controlled valves",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 50315462.48661752,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 95.63815749857658,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0959706960153335,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "TKM",
      "hs_code": "843143",
      "hs_description": "Boring or sinking machinery: parts of the machinery of item no. 8430.41 or 8430.41",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 46993861.2093211,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 88.68029245213745,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9781957341836581,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
    "importer_iso3": "TKM",
    "distance_km": 2601,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 0,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 1,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 1,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": 1,
    "exporter_is_wto": 1,
    "importer_is_wto": 0,
    "exporter_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 45231.428571000004,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 7393.253337524292,
    "importer_population": 6117.933,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": null,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 200085.537744,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 4566.642520459455,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 2.7222813899616867,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 2.7222813899616867,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/UKR-TKM/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/UKR-TKM/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/UKR-TKM/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/UKR-TKM/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/UKR-TKM/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}