{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:47:53.583Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "Ukraine exports to the Philippines: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from Ukraine to the Philippines, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "UKR",
    "country_name": "Ukraine"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "PHL",
    "country_name": "Philippines"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
    "importer_iso3": "PHL",
    "all_history_lane_count": 81,
    "current_lane_count": 10,
    "current_product_count": 10,
    "first_observed_last_year": 1996,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 18723784.263147634,
    "attention_trade_usd": 17104334.230505254,
    "critical_trade_usd": 14694092.358236413,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 17465037.6008291,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 17036445.02167777,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 17054892.873399284,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 18723784.263147634,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0,
    "critical_lane_count": 1,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 2,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 4,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 7,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 0,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 8,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 10,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 1.1566460583759797,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 83.61759399204577,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 6260.57595454239,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 78.47821867483003,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 91.35084014063439,
    "top_product_hs6": "100199",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 14694092.358236413,
    "top_product_description": "Cereals: wheat and meslin, other than durum wheat, other than seed",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "100199",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
    "distance_km": 8801.3681640625,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "common_spoken_language_score": 0,
    "has_reported_fta": 0,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 10.047431794636017,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 10.047431794636017,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": 33,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 394086.419343,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 3549,
    "buyer_population_latest": 111046.913,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 4.14271163092057,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 3.220520105972713,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 0.893418793085976,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 21.322000000000003,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 15.036000000000001,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 91.35084014063439,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 78.47821867483003,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "high_volatility",
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "concentrated_product_mix",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets",
      "market_access_friction"
    ],
    "attention_level": "Critical attention",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Tariff, distance or agreement conditions create market-access friction",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 394086.419343,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 3549,
    "buyer_population_2024": 111046.913
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 1995,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "PHL",
      "export_value_usd": 40829653.946954735,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1996,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "PHL",
      "export_value_usd": 35151880.895366624,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -13.906003364526642,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1997,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "PHL",
      "export_value_usd": 41621220.40145836,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 18.40396400223483,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1998,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "PHL",
      "export_value_usd": 23970554.121801388,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -42.40785375682668,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -16.266201782505085
    },
    {
      "year": 1999,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "PHL",
      "export_value_usd": 72028986.4000702,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 200.4894506571266,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 27.014385601573053
    },
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "PHL",
      "export_value_usd": 79607572.3796247,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 10.521577990089703,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 24.130886419300012
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "PHL",
      "export_value_usd": 122079769.24183138,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 53.35195584117234,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 72.05021065030014
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "PHL",
      "export_value_usd": 168514987.47467777,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 38.03678408079354,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 32.75281623189408
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "PHL",
      "export_value_usd": 190633542.54668674,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 13.125571442322093,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 33.787327772207696
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "PHL",
      "export_value_usd": 120098295.05642155,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -37.00043893009589,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -0.543986484343495
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "PHL",
      "export_value_usd": 118464864.31487022,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -1.3600782099229214,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -11.083230365220576
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "PHL",
      "export_value_usd": 39671029.55295442,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -66.51240873622075,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -40.7404906917898
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "PHL",
      "export_value_usd": 68264371.2261232,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 72.07612707656423,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -17.16400674288333
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "PHL",
      "export_value_usd": 114772604.27029657,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 68.12958532953681,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -1.0499028466378069
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "PHL",
      "export_value_usd": 206118420.62630728,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 79.58851934812394,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 73.19995632392123
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "PHL",
      "export_value_usd": 25814177.65126333,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -87.47604528851673,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -27.686163986481947
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "PHL",
      "export_value_usd": 9648940.027456611,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -62.62154790360172,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -56.192635772078646
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "PHL",
      "export_value_usd": 13822510.579674115,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 43.254186888314884,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -59.37219353337782
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "PHL",
      "export_value_usd": 79400549.79135188,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 474.429292954275,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 45.4303574957903
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "PHL",
      "export_value_usd": 58459266.68354548,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -26.374229350849255,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 82.30192394421157
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "PHL",
      "export_value_usd": 113806035.20726262,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 94.67578309410369,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 101.92625349345414
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "PHL",
      "export_value_usd": 170137240.62378162,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 49.49755548018966,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 28.921482748247527
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "PHL",
      "export_value_usd": 144531168.5068714,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -15.050245333137857,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 35.218480161684674
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "PHL",
      "export_value_usd": 339374500.90966576,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 134.810597890884,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 43.93662157854741
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "PHL",
      "export_value_usd": 243244736.11702582,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -28.325570876707562,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 12.654364491275928
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "PHL",
      "export_value_usd": 174251991.50004098,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -28.36350982073964,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 6.431964611632046
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "PHL",
      "export_value_usd": 117986810.13788764,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -32.289548531294756,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -29.684443673673066
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "PHL",
      "export_value_usd": 12785308.837245235,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -89.16378125461361,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -62.54102201272723
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "PHL",
      "export_value_usd": 12147007.456206204,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -4.992459620369727,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -58.84425042779513
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "PHL",
      "export_value_usd": 22152066.42602455,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 82.36645120940067,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -42.73882417787951
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "PHL",
      "hs_code": "100199",
      "hs_description": "Cereals: wheat and meslin, other than durum wheat, other than seed",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 1774394042.5695398,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 95.40607558503933,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.2141735122939328,
      "attention_level": "Critical attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "PHL",
      "hs_code": "040410",
      "hs_description": "Dairy produce: whey, whether or not concentrated or containing added sugar or other sweetening matter",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 88681808.09177202,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 56.48979376064819,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.140802539188051,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "PHL",
      "hs_code": "071310",
      "hs_description": "Vegetables, leguminous: peas (pisum sativum), shelled, whether or not skinned or split, dried",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 29065251.224901963,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 8.839017364838595,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0073744229983272,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "PHL",
      "hs_code": "851671",
      "hs_description": "Electro-thermic appliances: coffee or tea makers, of a kind used for domestic purposes",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 20415067.889304586,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.5252434449859991,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "PHL",
      "hs_code": "040210",
      "hs_description": "Dairy produce: milk and cream, concentrated or containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, in powder, granules or other solid forms, of a fat content not exceeding 1.5% (by weight)",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 462114189.60435843,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 72.33593203958884,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6805107195413828,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "PHL",
      "hs_code": "151219",
      "hs_description": "Vegetable oils: sunflower seed or safflower oil and their fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 12940291.826459587,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 90.12642845659335,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.201312439685852,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "PHL",
      "hs_code": "391710",
      "hs_description": "Plastics: artificial guts (sausage casings) of hardened protein or of cellulosic materials",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 64712081.762609564,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 60.06311761878172,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.5836051062344068,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "PHL",
      "hs_code": "040221",
      "hs_description": "Dairy produce: milk and cream, concentrated, not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, in powder, granules or other solid forms, of a fat content exceeding 1.5% (by weight)",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 43310018.63257848,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 50.19234764016577,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7433892701727477,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "PHL",
      "hs_code": "851679",
      "hs_description": "Electro-thermic appliances: n.e.c. in heading no. 8516, used for domestic purposes",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 60216744.963458106,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 24.537909012334822,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8171379653833785,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "PHL",
      "hs_code": "870310",
      "hs_description": "Vehicles: specially designed for travelling on snow, golf cars and similar vehicles",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 12465912.352670116,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 78.20095850824043,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6420490469420583,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "long_distance_without_fta",
        "limited_history"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
    "importer_iso3": "PHL",
    "distance_km": 8803,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 0,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 1,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 0,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": null,
    "exporter_is_wto": 1,
    "importer_is_wto": 1,
    "exporter_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 394086.419343,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 3548.828226706311,
    "importer_population": 111046.913,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 33,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 23.3,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 200085.537744,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 4566.642520459455,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 10.047431794636017,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 10.047431794636017,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/UKR-PHL/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/UKR-PHL/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/UKR-PHL/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/UKR-PHL/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/UKR-PHL/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}