{ "template": "Corridor pair risk profile", "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile", "source": "api", "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:47:53.582Z", "seo": { "title": "Ukraine exports to Republic of Moldova: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks", "description": "Understand reported exports from Ukraine to Republic of Moldova, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning." }, "publisher": { "name": "Yugalinks", "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com", "email": "support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" }, "exporter": { "iso3": "UKR", "country_name": "Ukraine" }, "importer": { "iso3": "MDA", "country_name": "Republic of Moldova" }, "latestYear": 2024, "risk": { "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "all_history_lane_count": 115, "current_lane_count": 111, "current_product_count": 111, "first_observed_last_year": 2012, "latest_data_year": 2024, "current_trade_usd": 691044114.2445159, "attention_trade_usd": 522624949.8897767, "critical_trade_usd": 15257505.216292597, "high_volatility_trade_usd": 425253193.2960969, "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 49563194.0125695, "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0, "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 533638946.56005925, "access_friction_trade_usd": 0, "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0, "critical_lane_count": 1, "high_attention_lane_count": 25, "high_volatility_lane_count": 40, "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 41, "declining_demand_lane_count": 0, "concentrated_market_lane_count": 55, "access_friction_lane_count": 0, "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 1.3666192250071156, "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 18.833326745958296, "product_concentration_hhi": 1116.2545974648663, "top1_product_share_pct": 31.201310578097203, "top3_product_share_pct": 41.02623245843016, "top_product_hs6": "271121", "top_product_trade_usd": 215614820.31709227, "top_product_description": "Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons: in gaseous state, natural gas", "top_attention_product_hs6": "271121", "top_attention_product_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "distance_km": 399.4605712890625, "shares_land_border": 1, "shares_official_language": 0, "common_spoken_language_score": 0.21800485253334045, "has_reported_fta": 1, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 3.067687242632183, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 5.812528296245211, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 0, "tariff_advantage_pp": 5.812528296245211, "buyer_biz_entry_days": 4, "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null, "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 13679.221333000001, "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 5315, "buyer_population_latest": 2573.928, "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 9.170672417488102, "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 11.45369402374179, "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": -2.048403712637259, "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 27.576, "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": -4.6899999999999995, "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient", "attention_trade_share_pct": 75.6283049253862, "critical_trade_share_pct": 2.2078916384336575, "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_markets" ], "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Buyer-market concentration is the largest observed corridor exposure", "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 13679.221333000001, "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 5315, "buyer_population_2024": 2573.928 }, "history": [ { "year": 1995, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 219488102.33638927, "yoy_growth_pct": null, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1996, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 262174837.2055918, "yoy_growth_pct": 19.448313787769898, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1997, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 252195015.6565436, "yoy_growth_pct": -3.806552015219611, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1998, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 175167365.28249818, "yoy_growth_pct": -30.54289164816284, "cagr_3y_pct": -7.242848208716712 }, { "year": 1999, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 112683407.67738661, "yoy_growth_pct": -35.67100384500368, "cagr_3y_pct": -24.5331328224498 }, { "year": 2000, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 158972450.74708125, "yoy_growth_pct": 41.07884561160991, "cagr_3y_pct": -14.257701107128218 }, { "year": 2001, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 239668611.34113973, "yoy_growth_pct": 50.761097419604376, "cagr_3y_pct": 11.016105314452806 }, { "year": 2002, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 265939483.26688448, "yoy_growth_pct": 10.961331890203718, "cagr_3y_pct": 33.13971291496873 }, { "year": 2003, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 433402015.83701336, "yoy_growth_pct": 62.97016543499534, "cagr_3y_pct": 39.69783829969828 }, { "year": 2004, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 607353283.2312652, "yoy_growth_pct": 40.13623865092233, "cagr_3y_pct": 36.33585141974238 }, { "year": 2005, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 618909949.132713, "yoy_growth_pct": 1.90279137703242, "cagr_3y_pct": 32.52003681458733 }, { "year": 2006, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 592973521.9004694, "yoy_growth_pct": -4.190662513761268, "cagr_3y_pct": 11.014947549485177 }, { "year": 2007, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 810640497.7095832, "yoy_growth_pct": 36.70770578616984, "cagr_3y_pct": 10.102108909620245 }, { "year": 2008, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 1016819080.2914935, "yoy_growth_pct": 25.434034342529866, "cagr_3y_pct": 17.997301181272142 }, { "year": 2009, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 609154464.0093042, "yoy_growth_pct": -40.092148562487964, "cagr_3y_pct": 0.9014428807602615 }, { "year": 2010, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 640534490.783892, "yoy_growth_pct": 5.151407176441314, "cagr_3y_pct": -7.550462833727334 }, { "year": 2011, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 773828927.8295648, "yoy_growth_pct": 20.8098765895566, "cagr_3y_pct": -8.700774947827195 }, { "year": 2012, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 707684771.9945986, "yoy_growth_pct": -8.547645798211146, "cagr_3y_pct": 5.124547588605588 }, { "year": 2013, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 784174275.4745944, "yoy_growth_pct": 10.808414495681639, "cagr_3y_pct": 6.976903714898253 }, { "year": 2014, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 648142633.5418351, "yoy_growth_pct": -17.347118642782668, "cagr_3y_pct": -5.736865695609117 }, { "year": 2015, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 457959892.159263, "yoy_growth_pct": -29.34272975429821, "cagr_3y_pct": -13.504031743834254 }, { "year": 2016, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 415695296.2975686, "yoy_growth_pct": -9.22888588832932, "cagr_3y_pct": -19.067894370795557 }, { "year": 2017, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 602699799.4918259, "yoy_growth_pct": 44.98595602592368, "cagr_3y_pct": -2.393931697554641 }, { "year": 2018, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 664741990.1051213, "yoy_growth_pct": 10.294045338260771, "cagr_3y_pct": 13.224885326853531 }, { "year": 2019, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 615219158.034262, "yoy_growth_pct": -7.449932877420284, "cagr_3y_pct": 13.959774240605437 }, { "year": 2020, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 568016042.951061, "yoy_growth_pct": -7.672569110822803, "cagr_3y_pct": -1.9562640449055535 }, { "year": 2021, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 717734893.781701, "yoy_growth_pct": 26.35820813313532, "cagr_3y_pct": 2.5896738754468185 }, { "year": 2022, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 850973174.556767, "yoy_growth_pct": 18.563717875417996, "cagr_3y_pct": 11.419705522835377 }, { "year": 2023, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 1055822430.6335804, "yoy_growth_pct": 24.072351773428124, "cagr_3y_pct": 22.954216697517825 }, { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 1089451567.4394853, "yoy_growth_pct": 3.185112934731338, "cagr_3y_pct": 14.925029122009214 } ], "riskLanes": [ { "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "hs_code": "271121", "hs_description": "Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons: in gaseous state, natural gas", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 405106658.40892375, "current_below_peak_pct": 28.94517506118565, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.8205522204636235, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "hs_code": "721420", "hs_description": "Iron or non-alloy steel: bars and rods, hot-rolled, hot-drawn or hot-extruded, containing indentations, ribs, grooves or other deformations produced during the rolling process or twisted after rolling", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 36830736.49134834, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7879668712290226, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "hs_code": "151211", "hs_description": "Vegetable oils: sunflower seed or safflower oil and their fractions, crude, not chemically modified", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 32564795.298362914, "current_below_peak_pct": 5.1773952598080255, "lane_volatility_cv": 2.991051461835855, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "hs_code": "440711", "hs_description": "Wood: coniferous species, of pine (Pinus spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, of a thickness exceeding 6mm", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 26676484.49623135, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0230232696848087, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "hs_code": "441011", "hs_description": "Particle board of wood, whether or not agglomerated with resins or other organic binding substances", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 31309145.68719507, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.998589573188378, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "hs_code": "854449", "hs_description": "Insulated electric conductors: for a voltage not exceeding 80 volts, not fitted with connectors", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 127367836.88193725, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.583312245143478, "attention_level": "Stable", "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified", "risk_driver_labels": [] }, { "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "hs_code": "720839", "hs_description": "Iron or non-alloy steel: in coils, without patterns in relief, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, of a thickness of less than 3mm", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 23274232.853742547, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.5637915650313923, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "hs_code": "730890", "hs_description": "Iron or steel: structures and parts thereof, n.e.s. in heading no. 7308", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 47988524.05441216, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0961049067306083, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "hs_code": "040510", "hs_description": "Dairy produce: derived from milk, butter", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 21155344.263804838, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.4604556747275728, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "hs_code": "271600", "hs_description": "Electrical energy", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 125361855.83903079, "current_below_peak_pct": 88.08587666982504, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8086787423151633, "attention_level": "Critical attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] } ], "accessProfile": { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "distance_km": 402, "shares_land_border": 1, "shares_official_language": 0, "shares_ethnic_language": 0, "shared_religion": 0, "shared_legal_system": 1, "shared_colonial_history": 0, "has_fta": 1, "rta_coverage_ratio": 2, "exporter_is_wto": 1, "importer_is_wto": 1, "exporter_is_eu": 0, "importer_is_eu": 0, "importer_gdp_million_usd": 13679.221333000001, "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 5314.531460475973, "importer_population": 2573.928, "importer_biz_entry_days": 4, "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 4, "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 200085.537744, "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 4566.642520459455, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 3.067687242632183, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 5.812528296245211, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 0, "tariff_advantage_pp": 5.812528296245211 }, "sourceAttribution": { "publisher": "OECD", "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D", "year": 2025, "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)", "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/", "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0", "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/", "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions", "accessed": "2026-08-29", "supportingSources": [ { "publisher": "CEPII", "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows", "release": "202601", "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.", "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html", "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37", "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf", "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence", "accessed": "2026-08-29" } ] }, "links": { "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/UKR-MDA/risk", "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/UKR-MDA/risk/index.html", "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/UKR-MDA/risk/index.md", "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/UKR-MDA/risk/index.json", "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/UKR-MDA/risk/index.ld.json", "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/", "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/", "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources", "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology", "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors", "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact", "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" } }