{ "template": "Corridor pair risk profile", "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile", "source": "api", "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:47:53.592Z", "seo": { "title": "Ukraine exports to Kazakhstan: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks", "description": "Understand reported exports from Ukraine to Kazakhstan, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning." }, "publisher": { "name": "Yugalinks", "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com", "email": "support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" }, "exporter": { "iso3": "UKR", "country_name": "Ukraine" }, "importer": { "iso3": "KAZ", "country_name": "Kazakhstan" }, "latestYear": 2024, "risk": { "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "all_history_lane_count": 403, "current_lane_count": 239, "current_product_count": 239, "first_observed_last_year": 1995, "latest_data_year": 2024, "current_trade_usd": 276466371.2957867, "attention_trade_usd": 181059755.3916447, "critical_trade_usd": 10808922.803126236, "high_volatility_trade_usd": 125343594.4715638, "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 104359664.13715616, "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0, "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 203031841.10873714, "access_friction_trade_usd": 0, "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0, "critical_lane_count": 1, "high_attention_lane_count": 29, "high_volatility_lane_count": 152, "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 175, "declining_demand_lane_count": 0, "concentrated_market_lane_count": 129, "access_friction_lane_count": 0, "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 1.1031517105354556, "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 38.571214470376795, "product_concentration_hhi": 458.7838720451306, "top1_product_share_pct": 12.85294702772044, "top3_product_share_pct": 29.023947172658637, "top_product_hs6": "180632", "top_product_trade_usd": 35534076.25210837, "top_product_description": "Chocolate and other food preparations containing cocoa: in blocks, slabs or bars, (not filled), weighing 2kg or less", "top_attention_product_hs6": "180632", "top_attention_product_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "distance_km": 3564.06640625, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "common_spoken_language_score": 0.7970022559165955, "has_reported_fta": 1, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 5.360908919371648, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 8.811168753409962, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 0.23776677036321836, "tariff_advantage_pp": 8.573401983046743, "buyer_biz_entry_days": 5, "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null, "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 190814.274226, "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 10041, "buyer_population_latest": 19002.586, "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 9.917422718979218, "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 8.399650809013636, "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 1.4001630989012082, "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 27.696000000000005, "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 36.538, "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient", "attention_trade_share_pct": 65.49069767256861, "critical_trade_share_pct": 3.909670008856865, "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_markets" ], "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Buyer-market concentration is the largest observed corridor exposure", "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 190814.274226, "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 10041, "buyer_population_2024": 19002.586 }, "history": [ { "year": 1995, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 79489076.8250028, "yoy_growth_pct": null, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1996, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 89011273.59013525, "yoy_growth_pct": 11.979251924255951, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1997, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 90389317.79127146, "yoy_growth_pct": 1.5481681651715373, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1998, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 96246956.29808171, "yoy_growth_pct": 6.48045438326772, "cagr_3y_pct": 6.584286853057564 }, { "year": 1999, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 52709346.35788817, "yoy_growth_pct": -45.23531092802078, "cagr_3y_pct": -16.025478368549063 }, { "year": 2000, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 74555672.5359708, "yoy_growth_pct": 41.44677877382412, "cagr_3y_pct": -6.217631985689797 }, { "year": 2001, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 132978039.16706152, "yoy_growth_pct": 78.36072647980437, "cagr_3y_pct": 11.37754481209383 }, { "year": 2002, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 202805179.52528635, "yoy_growth_pct": 52.51027973912321, "cagr_3y_pct": 56.698126467743016 }, { "year": 2003, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 303688915.5366894, "yoy_growth_pct": 49.74416148914214, "cagr_3y_pct": 59.70410630964111 }, { "year": 2004, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 646965449.6041257, "yoy_growth_pct": 113.03558230328767, "cagr_3y_pct": 69.44693639517385 }, { "year": 2005, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 726553683.9003127, "yoy_growth_pct": 12.301775055358277, "cagr_3y_pct": 53.01343177033768 }, { "year": 2006, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 869189491.3568097, "yoy_growth_pct": 19.63183321716768, "cagr_3y_pct": 41.98043706740064 }, { "year": 2007, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 1417549740.4036121, "yoy_growth_pct": 63.08868831246555, "cagr_3y_pct": 29.883028374722254 }, { "year": 2008, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 1899384874.1189926, "yoy_growth_pct": 33.99070381672744, "cagr_3y_pct": 37.75744797568712 }, { "year": 2009, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 1692983429.1303117, "yoy_growth_pct": -10.866752062791784, "cagr_3y_pct": 24.88570986320644 }, { "year": 2010, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 1284400169.2570503, "yoy_growth_pct": -24.13391961450865, "cagr_3y_pct": -3.2344693785176903 }, { "year": 2011, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 1743063219.6721134, "yoy_growth_pct": 35.710291963008125, "cagr_3y_pct": -2.8222764397708433 }, { "year": 2012, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 2580651577.383617, "yoy_growth_pct": 48.052666607758596, "cagr_3y_pct": 15.086810755091173 }, { "year": 2013, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 2114554341.0370002, "yoy_growth_pct": -18.06122300396582, "cagr_3y_pct": 18.079045021346808 }, { "year": 2014, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 1092175871.2398725, "yoy_growth_pct": -48.349595465857945, "cagr_3y_pct": -14.429025158509667 }, { "year": 2015, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 720443582.9021969, "yoy_growth_pct": -34.03593671371566, "cagr_3y_pct": -34.64328707707004 }, { "year": 2016, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 416475959.01799214, "yoy_growth_pct": -42.191731746671636, "cagr_3y_pct": -41.817770083890224 }, { "year": 2017, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 406142160.08390844, "yoy_growth_pct": -2.481247407041154, "cagr_3y_pct": -28.089026923134575 }, { "year": 2018, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 373620879.63085705, "yoy_growth_pct": -8.007363836921666, "cagr_3y_pct": -19.657799886922156 }, { "year": 2019, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 370719288.59305316, "yoy_growth_pct": -0.7766137269069939, "cagr_3y_pct": -3.8051661813072957 }, { "year": 2020, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 288347189.5861601, "yoy_growth_pct": -22.219534170857436, "cagr_3y_pct": -10.790203328379967 }, { "year": 2021, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 349666227.5363607, "yoy_growth_pct": 21.265696412094904, "cagr_3y_pct": -2.1845366544039124 }, { "year": 2022, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 233775367.3079772, "yoy_growth_pct": -33.14328096393935, "cagr_3y_pct": -14.24663156938768 }, { "year": 2023, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 293931429.94459844, "yoy_growth_pct": 25.73242139637888, "cagr_3y_pct": 0.6414228679602507 }, { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "export_value_usd": 300586392.4675041, "yoy_growth_pct": 2.264120759103583, "cagr_3y_pct": -4.916489106073573 } ], "riskLanes": [ { "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "hs_code": "180632", "hs_description": "Chocolate and other food preparations containing cocoa: in blocks, slabs or bars, (not filled), weighing 2kg or less", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 74564770.91107138, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.6341372651884878, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "hs_code": "170490", "hs_description": "Sugar confectionery: (excluding chewing gum, including white chocolate), not containing cocoa", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 124977733.00626856, "current_below_peak_pct": 32.38795981457173, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6279144560460487, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "hs_code": "300490", "hs_description": "Medicaments: consisting of mixed or unmixed products n.e.s. in heading no. 3004, for therapeutic or prophylactic uses, packaged for retail sale", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 1162507712.4228716, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.733896184873093, "attention_level": "Stable", "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified", "risk_driver_labels": [] }, { "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "hs_code": "040690", "hs_description": "Dairy produce: cheese (not grated, powdered or processed), n.e.c. in heading no. 0406", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 75091410.02453938, "current_below_peak_pct": 70.57187539374303, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8364074967074886, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "hs_code": "020714", "hs_description": "Meat and edible offal: of fowls of the species Gallus domesticus, cuts and offal, frozen", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 109661278.20412877, "current_below_peak_pct": 39.68510274642391, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7518032672359385, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "hs_code": "841850", "hs_description": "Furniture incorporating refrigerating or freezing equipment: for storage and display, n.e.c. in item no. 8418.1, 8418.2, 8418.3 or 8418.4 (chests, cabinets, display counters, show-cases and the like)", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 62952275.90812301, "current_below_peak_pct": 9.252031359860439, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.4818190716033455, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "hs_code": "190190", "hs_description": "Food preparations: of flour, meal, starch, malt extract or milk products, for uses n.e.s. in heading no. 1901", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 34972043.345699355, "current_below_peak_pct": 79.21146686692883, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.166932160199803, "attention_level": "Critical attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "hs_code": "300215", "hs_description": "Blood, human or animal, antisera, other blood fractions and immunological products: immunological products, put up in measured doses or in forms or packings for retail sale", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 283067789.23481524, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9913700524127362, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "hs_code": "220860", "hs_description": "Vodka", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 56018156.61323053, "current_below_peak_pct": 5.780652771838986, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6851206620343079, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "hs_code": "190590", "hs_description": "Food preparations: bakers' wares n.e.c. in heading no. 1605, whether or not containing cocoa: communion wafers, empty cachets suitable for pharmaceutical use, sealing wafers, rice papers and similar products", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 173974639.42926997, "current_below_peak_pct": 52.08028827248397, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8850440144482574, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] } ], "accessProfile": { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "UKR", "importer_iso3": "KAZ", "distance_km": 3566, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "shares_ethnic_language": 0, "shared_religion": 0, "shared_legal_system": 1, "shared_colonial_history": 0, "has_fta": 1, "rta_coverage_ratio": 1, "exporter_is_wto": 1, "importer_is_wto": 1, "exporter_is_eu": 0, "importer_is_eu": 0, "importer_gdp_million_usd": 190814.274226, "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 10041.489838593548, "importer_population": 19002.586, "importer_biz_entry_days": 5, "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 0.2, "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 200085.537744, "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 4566.642520459455, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 5.360908919371648, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 8.811168753409962, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 0.23776677036321836, "tariff_advantage_pp": 8.573401983046743 }, "sourceAttribution": { "publisher": "OECD", "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D", "year": 2025, "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)", "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/", "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0", "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/", "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions", "accessed": "2026-08-29", "supportingSources": [ { "publisher": "CEPII", "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows", "release": "202601", "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.", "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html", "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37", "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf", "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence", "accessed": "2026-08-29" } ] }, "links": { "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/UKR-KAZ/risk", "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/UKR-KAZ/risk/index.html", "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/UKR-KAZ/risk/index.md", "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/UKR-KAZ/risk/index.json", "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/UKR-KAZ/risk/index.ld.json", "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/", "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/", "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources", "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology", "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors", "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact", "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" } }