{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:47:57.446Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "Ukraine exports to Iran: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from Ukraine to Iran, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "UKR",
    "country_name": "Ukraine"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "IRN",
    "country_name": "Iran"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
    "importer_iso3": "IRN",
    "all_history_lane_count": 123,
    "current_lane_count": 6,
    "current_product_count": 6,
    "first_observed_last_year": 1997,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 7407809.972472444,
    "attention_trade_usd": 6661532.413324953,
    "critical_trade_usd": 0,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 7193604.74483844,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 6978639.226117948,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 149676.60151547828,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 0,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0,
    "critical_lane_count": 0,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 1,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 4,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 4,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 0,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 1,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 0,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 1.418296273058308,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 62.77281770851171,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 8118.825809599547,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 89.92580044681664,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 96.86872586826598,
    "top_product_hs6": "841490",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 6661532.413324953,
    "top_product_description": "Pumps and compressors: parts, of air or vacuum pumps, air or other gas compressors and fans, ventilating or recycling hoods incorporating a fan",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "841490",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
    "distance_km": 2349.75634765625,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "common_spoken_language_score": 0,
    "has_reported_fta": 0,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 43.96147324099618,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 43.96147324099618,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": 72.5,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 231547.57124000002,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 2757,
    "buyer_population_latest": 85028.763,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 6.431909337919595,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 5.360726244823533,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 1.0166815769729887,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 39.459999999999994,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 40.714000000000006,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 89.92580044681664,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 0,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "high_volatility",
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "concentrated_product_mix",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets"
    ],
    "attention_level": "High attention",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Volatile products account for the largest observed corridor exposure",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 231547.57124000002,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 2757,
    "buyer_population_2024": 85028.763
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 1995,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 138503651.45466265,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1996,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 141456994.07526672,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 2.1323211262562314,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1997,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 189631540.70461184,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 34.05596658141366,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1998,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 179453874.25651288,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -5.367074701962505,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 9.017747686729738
    },
    {
      "year": 1999,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 91743452.2495964,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -48.87630449345577,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -13.440072426454641
    },
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 102598676.36511272,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 11.83215134087574,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -18.515114157794166
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 147575567.00193396,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 43.83769092377396,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -6.311301209353671
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 155669225.48723564,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 5.4844163229239795,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 19.27311511930032
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 357148386.6207338,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 129.42774045600865,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 51.55454959642949
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 440189379.794154,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 23.251118102236813,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 43.94890533539035
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 608139805.1378741,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 38.15412934820437,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 57.495042748526636
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 300798152.58918965,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -50.53799306542772,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -5.563005426738332
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 490677985.8536613,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 63.12533226352526,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 3.6857335438514216
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 814444148.5825255,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 65.98342947169094,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 10.226485119705186
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 534424556.63079035,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -34.381681351518914,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 21.116621261166536
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 949334733.97091,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 77.63680994673345,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 24.60656737421707
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 2042695024.6174393,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 115.17120900793172,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 35.8670276699347
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 1064627358.3466232,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -47.881237996063106,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 25.826004325732967
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 667635321.9739561,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -37.28929500639544,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -11.071702466951738
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 612026631.2590613,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -8.329201419493504,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -33.085187864730415
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 434518139.1769151,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -29.003393482563943,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -25.82285799629639
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 664600445.6990664,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 52.95113961363824,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -0.15175382821062122
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 451838719.21647656,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -32.013479355824735,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -9.620269645747104
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 362463532.434443,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -19.780329347829483,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -5.864781311246792
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 191325579.63401312,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -47.215219597679884,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -33.970581918363706
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 219197544.19706184,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 14.567819220182177,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -21.425056019282927
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 505209932.3938101,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 130.4815659520432,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 11.70411887525944
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 170081032.10240388,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -66.33458267605356,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -3.8474185782019665
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 11557001.586672673,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -93.20500267207085,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -62.50242668661692
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 11018047.198821282,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -4.663444785478821,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -72.06099624153872
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "hs_code": "841490",
      "hs_description": "Pumps and compressors: parts, of air or vacuum pumps, air or other gas compressors and fans, ventilating or recycling hoods incorporating a fan",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 67473523.66634007,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 64.0553870603421,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.459788062651397,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "hs_code": "300490",
      "hs_description": "Medicaments: consisting of mixed or unmixed products n.e.s. in heading no. 3004, for therapeutic or prophylactic uses, packaged for retail sale",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 279627323.4366926,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 47.188611359799864,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.1831491508340704,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "hs_code": "180500",
      "hs_description": "Cocoa: powder, not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 71170984.74017297,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 62.80966895179395,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8010810706450067,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "hs_code": "841960",
      "hs_description": "Machinery: for liquefying air or gas, not used for domestic purposes",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 14852973.083488312,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 62.70146674649172,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.4322340375119118,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "hs_code": "350510",
      "hs_description": "Dextrins and other modified starches",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 15456805.147753002,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0.6120090600699537,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.014393382925364207,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The lane has limited historical coverage",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "limited_history"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "hs_code": "840910",
      "hs_description": "Engines: parts of aircraft engines (spark-ignition reciprocating or rotary internal combustion piston engines)",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 24849538.54471681,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 88.48724181787347,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.208945771875121,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
    "importer_iso3": "IRN",
    "distance_km": 2347,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 0,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 1,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 0,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": null,
    "exporter_is_wto": 1,
    "importer_is_wto": 0,
    "exporter_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 231547.57124,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 2723.167585538084,
    "importer_population": 85028.763,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 72.5,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 1.1,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 200085.537744,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 4566.642520459455,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 43.96147324099618,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 43.96147324099618,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/UKR-IRN/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/UKR-IRN/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/UKR-IRN/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/UKR-IRN/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/UKR-IRN/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}