{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:47:59.854Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "Ukraine exports to Afghanistan: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from Ukraine to Afghanistan, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "UKR",
    "country_name": "Ukraine"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "AFG",
    "country_name": "Afghanistan"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
    "importer_iso3": "AFG",
    "all_history_lane_count": 22,
    "current_lane_count": 2,
    "current_product_count": 2,
    "first_observed_last_year": 2003,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 138315.53999999998,
    "attention_trade_usd": 0,
    "critical_trade_usd": 0,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 0,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 23163.86,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 0,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 0,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 138315.53999999998,
    "critical_lane_count": 0,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 0,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 0,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 1,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 0,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 0,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 0,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 0.8681660186198747,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 42.665082220734185,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 7211.5089665478135,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 83.25288684120382,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 100,
    "top_product_hs6": "870120",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 115151.68,
    "top_product_description": "Tractors: road, for semi-trailers",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "",
    "distance_km": 3580.625732421875,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "common_spoken_language_score": 0,
    "has_reported_fta": 0,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 5.544544419157088,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 5.544544419157088,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": 8.5,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 20116.137326,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 517,
    "buyer_population_latest": 39835.426,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": -1.8172621057140348,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": -3.58436239429053,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 2.4121484487080735,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 21.442,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 3.722,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer economy and income contracted",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 0,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 0,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "concentrated_product_mix",
      "buyer_macro_weakness"
    ],
    "attention_level": "Stable",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains materially below historical peaks",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 20116.137326,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 517,
    "buyer_population_2024": 39835.426
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 1995,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 2349504.1116367714,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1996,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 2098087,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -10.700858551025172,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1997,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 3764704,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 79.43507585719753,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1998,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 299989,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -92.03153820326911,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -49.644948983059415
    },
    {
      "year": 1999,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 1752026,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 484.0300811029738,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -5.831493059605242
    },
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 4149989.9999999995,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 136.86806017718914,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 3.3012091296273693
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 4125370,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -0.5932544415769514,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 139.58108381871756
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 5524397.743157754,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 33.91278220275402,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 46.63854096282589
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 8063637.214274796,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 45.96409580142955,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 24.78469162166772
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 9369844.341351442,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 16.198733801718035,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 31.448758914811805
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 6434110.043489224,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -31.331729652178907,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 5.212623125211002
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 4356255.848848893,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -32.294352763564305,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -18.55568042432192
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 27629437.732559808,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 534.2473603762431,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 43.399143361719396
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 32078449.302432045,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 16.102432532057342,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 70.83425596134427
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 21566227.295375355,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -32.770355910750645,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 70.43296516815684
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 10827248.860332629,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -49.7953503316066,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -26.821749235340764
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 10853797.765038287,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 0.24520453023781918,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -30.317650347901992
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 14830236.94322814,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 36.636385385754664,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -11.734435330931348
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 15586435.44991882,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 5.09903186028311,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 12.912726761338611
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 7614809.2024604855,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -51.144639664868684,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -11.142838948217426
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 8269245.625852948,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 8.594258976062097,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -17.692527141141333
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 6895589.180397321,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -16.611629495694647,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -23.802359260140914
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 5825699.41360235,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -15.51556710826737,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -8.540319012605991
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 7009643.038620383,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 20.32277227097672,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -5.359577581398023
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 3492151.37853167,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -50.18075300994236,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -20.29102448481712
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 6077969.956177023,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 74.04657752072022,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 1.4230871045505689
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 4553747.970000001,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -25.07781376293182,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -13.39206254994869
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 1280806.7799999998,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -71.87356901528304,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -28.419149837602852
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 1045546.1699999999,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -18.368157763811954,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -44.38462257689615
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "export_value_usd": 775818.47,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -25.797779929699328,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -44.56334194835543
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "hs_code": "870120",
      "hs_description": "Tractors: road, for semi-trailers",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 33431179.425499395,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 39.56515044148025,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8455386645961722,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer macroeconomic trend has weakened",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
      "importer_iso3": "AFG",
      "hs_code": "871639",
      "hs_description": "Trailers and semi-trailers: (other than tanker type)",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 16336363.079753663,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 58.07539605730889,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9806506317104431,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "UKR",
    "importer_iso3": "AFG",
    "distance_km": 3580,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 0,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 1,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 0,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": null,
    "exporter_is_wto": 1,
    "importer_is_wto": 1,
    "exporter_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 20116.137326,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 504.9811021476211,
    "importer_population": 39835.426,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 8.5,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 6.8,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 200085.537744,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 4566.642520459455,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 5.544544419157088,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 5.544544419157088,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/UKR-AFG/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/UKR-AFG/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/UKR-AFG/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/UKR-AFG/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/UKR-AFG/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}