{ "template": "Corridor pair risk profile", "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile", "source": "api", "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:47:57.396Z", "seo": { "title": "Uganda exports to the United States: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks", "description": "Understand reported exports from Uganda to the United States, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning." }, "publisher": { "name": "Yugalinks", "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com", "email": "support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" }, "exporter": { "iso3": "UGA", "country_name": "Uganda" }, "importer": { "iso3": "USA", "country_name": "United States" }, "latestYear": 2024, "risk": { "exporter_iso3": "UGA", "importer_iso3": "USA", "all_history_lane_count": 62, "current_lane_count": 19, "current_product_count": 19, "first_observed_last_year": 1996, "latest_data_year": 2024, "current_trade_usd": 114002858.756359, "attention_trade_usd": 30616293.549122244, "critical_trade_usd": 0, "high_volatility_trade_usd": 9337229.108744945, "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 1993823.7065556655, "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0, "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 19691843.454091825, "access_friction_trade_usd": 114002858.756359, "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0, "critical_lane_count": 0, "high_attention_lane_count": 6, "high_volatility_lane_count": 7, "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 4, "declining_demand_lane_count": 0, "concentrated_market_lane_count": 8, "access_friction_lane_count": 19, "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 0.8835148196425876, "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 9.51460276952976, "product_concentration_hhi": 5084.216739912041, "top1_product_share_pct": 70.08183843175685, "top3_product_share_pct": 85.47054511434291, "top_product_hs6": "090111", "top_product_trade_usd": 79895299.28121547, "top_product_description": "Coffee: not roasted or decaffeinated", "top_attention_product_hs6": "090510", "top_attention_product_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "distance_km": 11381.8916015625, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 1, "common_spoken_language_score": 0.07679999619722366, "has_reported_fta": 0, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 1.9937695116808078, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 4.674475463696971, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 0.5240757665959596, "tariff_advantage_pp": 4.150399697101011, "buyer_biz_entry_days": 4.2, "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null, "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 22996100, "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 69288, "buyer_population_latest": 331893.738, "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 6.1023377268677015, "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 5.47830267128826, "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 0.5916240968762754, "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 22.094, "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 17.618, "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient", "attention_trade_share_pct": 26.85572439420471, "critical_trade_share_pct": 0, "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_product_mix", "concentrated_buyer_markets", "market_access_friction" ], "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Tariff, distance or agreement conditions create market-access friction", "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 22996100, "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 69288, "buyer_population_2024": 331893.738 }, "history": [ { "year": 1995, "exporter_iso3": "UGA", "importer_iso3": "USA", "export_value_usd": 4489073.989276581, "yoy_growth_pct": null, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1996, "exporter_iso3": "UGA", "importer_iso3": "USA", "export_value_usd": 9778472.435432333, "yoy_growth_pct": 117.82827502489313, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1997, "exporter_iso3": "UGA", "importer_iso3": "USA", "export_value_usd": 26133261.792987924, "yoy_growth_pct": 167.2530087449441, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1998, "exporter_iso3": "UGA", "importer_iso3": "USA", "export_value_usd": 14171536.579624297, "yoy_growth_pct": -45.772033005742884, "cagr_3y_pct": 46.69660380005225 }, { "year": 1999, "exporter_iso3": "UGA", "importer_iso3": "USA", "export_value_usd": 16110428.172630364, "yoy_growth_pct": 13.681590433840363, "cagr_3y_pct": 18.10782966375406 }, { "year": 2000, "exporter_iso3": "UGA", "importer_iso3": "USA", "export_value_usd": 23659626.88608517, "yoy_growth_pct": 46.859081785796164, "cagr_3y_pct": -3.260295275327374 }, { "year": 2001, "exporter_iso3": "UGA", "importer_iso3": "USA", "export_value_usd": 12658443.270237971, "yoy_growth_pct": -46.497705432190386, "cagr_3y_pct": -3.693754436932839 }, { "year": 2002, "exporter_iso3": "UGA", "importer_iso3": "USA", "export_value_usd": 12914831.081031071, "yoy_growth_pct": 2.025429235804288, "cagr_3y_pct": -7.104669879504577 }, { "year": 2003, "exporter_iso3": "UGA", "importer_iso3": "USA", "export_value_usd": 24622759.09111485, "yoy_growth_pct": 90.65490625951773, "cagr_3y_pct": 1.3389207602575448 }, { "year": 2004, "exporter_iso3": "UGA", "importer_iso3": "USA", "export_value_usd": 22741663.148603123, "yoy_growth_pct": -7.639663514356199, "cagr_3y_pct": 21.566517100656913 }, { "year": 2005, "exporter_iso3": "UGA", "importer_iso3": "USA", "export_value_usd": 23255612.499959122, "yoy_growth_pct": 2.259946196536511, "cagr_3y_pct": 21.65959060906546 }, { "year": 2006, "exporter_iso3": "UGA", "importer_iso3": "USA", "export_value_usd": 20745645.474771526, "yoy_growth_pct": -10.79295170226976, "cagr_3y_pct": -5.551134570766236 }, { "year": 2007, "exporter_iso3": "UGA", "importer_iso3": "USA", "export_value_usd": 26862194.29696527, "yoy_growth_pct": 29.483531036100995, "cagr_3y_pct": 5.707650762553862 }, { "year": 2008, "exporter_iso3": "UGA", "importer_iso3": "USA", "export_value_usd": 47430061.979259245, "yoy_growth_pct": 76.56808470266188, "cagr_3y_pct": 26.816365773032945 }, { "year": 2009, "exporter_iso3": "UGA", "importer_iso3": "USA", "export_value_usd": 32709895.405748505, "yoy_growth_pct": -31.03552042573282, "cagr_3y_pct": 16.390464436152975 }, { "year": 2010, "exporter_iso3": "UGA", "importer_iso3": "USA", "export_value_usd": 49168586.37555747, "yoy_growth_pct": 50.31716172017009, "cagr_3y_pct": 22.325052848520023 }, { "year": 2011, "exporter_iso3": "UGA", "importer_iso3": "USA", "export_value_usd": 43642974.1271908, "yoy_growth_pct": -11.238094595929937, "cagr_3y_pct": -2.7356813512948386 }, { "year": 2012, "exporter_iso3": "UGA", "importer_iso3": "USA", "export_value_usd": 31200803.55950868, "yoy_growth_pct": -28.50898871241292, "cagr_3y_pct": -1.5621299865702154 }, { "year": 2013, "exporter_iso3": "UGA", "importer_iso3": "USA", "export_value_usd": 45145273.734247774, "yoy_growth_pct": 44.692663598048284, "cagr_3y_pct": -2.8055374080554585 }, { "year": 2014, "exporter_iso3": "UGA", "importer_iso3": "USA", "export_value_usd": 43962188.661010504, "yoy_growth_pct": -2.620617786485513, "cagr_3y_pct": 0.24321548377135294 }, { "year": 2015, "exporter_iso3": "UGA", "importer_iso3": "USA", "export_value_usd": 55837156.148025304, "yoy_growth_pct": 27.011775001881453, "cagr_3y_pct": 21.409453424595792 }, { "year": 2016, "exporter_iso3": "UGA", "importer_iso3": "USA", "export_value_usd": 47478236.33611303, "yoy_growth_pct": -14.97017468037346, "cagr_3y_pct": 1.6937109735587486 }, { "year": 2017, "exporter_iso3": "UGA", "importer_iso3": "USA", "export_value_usd": 73352261.29770035, "yoy_growth_pct": 54.49660088133255, "cagr_3y_pct": 18.60729473334799 }, { "year": 2018, "exporter_iso3": "UGA", "importer_iso3": "USA", "export_value_usd": 61737843.64432661, "yoy_growth_pct": -15.833755426075536, "cagr_3y_pct": 3.4052816426062282 }, { "year": 2019, "exporter_iso3": "UGA", "importer_iso3": "USA", "export_value_usd": 69879845.87024683, "yoy_growth_pct": 13.188024954072763, "cagr_3y_pct": 13.750274534229812 }, { "year": 2020, "exporter_iso3": "UGA", "importer_iso3": "USA", "export_value_usd": 73477272.03128049, "yoy_growth_pct": 5.148016736776118, "cagr_3y_pct": 0.056776156561699764 }, { "year": 2021, "exporter_iso3": "UGA", "importer_iso3": "USA", "export_value_usd": 85714355.54817447, "yoy_growth_pct": 16.654243113005695, "cagr_3y_pct": 11.557995601164372 }, { "year": 2022, "exporter_iso3": "UGA", "importer_iso3": "USA", "export_value_usd": 159414111.6776571, "yoy_growth_pct": 85.98297876492904, "cagr_3y_pct": 31.641132043945298 }, { "year": 2023, "exporter_iso3": "UGA", "importer_iso3": "USA", "export_value_usd": 102028067.57741034, "yoy_growth_pct": -35.99809546113713, "cagr_3y_pct": 11.563521004825095 }, { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "UGA", "importer_iso3": "USA", "export_value_usd": 128709701.91868694, "yoy_growth_pct": 26.151268934925987, "cagr_3y_pct": 14.512414909439041 } ], "riskLanes": [ { "exporter_iso3": "UGA", "importer_iso3": "USA", "hs_code": "090111", "hs_description": "Coffee: not roasted or decaffeinated", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 6032198009.175272, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9037788327696906, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified", "risk_driver_labels": [ "long_distance_without_fta" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "UGA", "importer_iso3": "USA", "hs_code": "090510", "hs_description": "Spices: vanilla, neither crushed nor ground", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 131761931.65269572, "current_below_peak_pct": 24.708045867369037, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9113447706850804, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "long_distance_without_fta" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "UGA", "importer_iso3": "USA", "hs_code": "350110", "hs_description": "Casein", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 297167330.3389312, "current_below_peak_pct": 49.83247101867552, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.5150371863361356, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "long_distance_without_fta" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "UGA", "importer_iso3": "USA", "hs_code": "090112", "hs_description": "Coffee: decaffeinated, not roasted", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 597212813.8718314, "current_below_peak_pct": 24.920424008375676, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0538991439707148, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "long_distance_without_fta" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "UGA", "importer_iso3": "USA", "hs_code": "230400", "hs_description": "Oil-cake and other solid residues: whether or not ground or in the form of pellets, resulting from the extraction of soya-bean oil", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 345732220.8059143, "current_below_peak_pct": 41.84484750306635, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.4203463591052606, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "The lane has limited historical coverage", "risk_driver_labels": [ "long_distance_without_fta", "limited_history" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "UGA", "importer_iso3": "USA", "hs_code": "253010", "hs_description": "Vermiculite, perlite and chlorites: unexpanded", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 37952369.580619626, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.5001115273481522, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "long_distance_without_fta" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "UGA", "importer_iso3": "USA", "hs_code": "081190", "hs_description": "Fruit, edible: fruit and nuts n.e.s. in heading no. 0811, uncooked or cooked, frozen whether or not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 818900552.0496695, "current_below_peak_pct": 14.030615029184762, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9858263785276333, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified", "risk_driver_labels": [ "long_distance_without_fta" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "UGA", "importer_iso3": "USA", "hs_code": "060210", "hs_description": "Plants, live: unrooted cuttings and slips", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 127397372.51838534, "current_below_peak_pct": 71.23970584225384, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7930315015374493, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown", "long_distance_without_fta" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "UGA", "importer_iso3": "USA", "hs_code": "120799", "hs_description": "Oil seeds and oleaginous fruits: n.e.c. in heading no. 1207, whether or not broken", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 163675226.0324981, "current_below_peak_pct": 58.42814267543158, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.1619383958141267, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "long_distance_without_fta" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "UGA", "importer_iso3": "USA", "hs_code": "110290", "hs_description": "Cereal flours: n.e.s. in heading no. 1102", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 85147681.18927932, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.1439703297242907, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "long_distance_without_fta" ] } ], "accessProfile": { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "UGA", "importer_iso3": "USA", "distance_km": 11381, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 1, "shares_ethnic_language": 1, "shared_religion": 0, "shared_legal_system": 1, "shared_colonial_history": 0, "has_fta": 0, "rta_coverage_ratio": null, "exporter_is_wto": 1, "importer_is_wto": 1, "exporter_is_eu": 0, "importer_is_eu": 0, "importer_gdp_million_usd": 22996100, "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 69287.53804930179, "importer_population": 331893.738, "importer_biz_entry_days": 4.2, "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 1, "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 40434.701517, "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 858.0575491467309, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 1.9937695116808078, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 4.674475463696971, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 0.5240757665959596, "tariff_advantage_pp": 4.150399697101011 }, "sourceAttribution": { "publisher": "OECD", "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D", "year": 2025, "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)", "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/", "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0", "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/", "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions", "accessed": "2026-08-29", "supportingSources": [ { "publisher": "CEPII", "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows", "release": "202601", "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.", "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html", "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37", "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf", "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence", "accessed": "2026-08-29" } ] }, "links": { "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/UGA-USA/risk", "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/UGA-USA/risk/index.html", "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/UGA-USA/risk/index.md", "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/UGA-USA/risk/index.json", "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/UGA-USA/risk/index.ld.json", "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/", "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/", "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources", "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology", "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors", "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact", "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" } }