{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:47:59.857Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "Uganda exports to Libya: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from Uganda to Libya, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "UGA",
    "country_name": "Uganda"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "LBY",
    "country_name": "Libya"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "UGA",
    "importer_iso3": "LBY",
    "all_history_lane_count": 4,
    "current_lane_count": 1,
    "current_product_count": 1,
    "first_observed_last_year": 2006,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 122307.2295376315,
    "attention_trade_usd": 0,
    "critical_trade_usd": 0,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 0,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 122307.2295376315,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 122307.2295376315,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 0,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 122307.2295376315,
    "critical_lane_count": 0,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 0,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 0,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 1,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 0,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 1,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 0,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 0.8594150630967684,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 56.46501464141897,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 10000,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 100,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 100,
    "top_product_hs6": "090111",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 122307.2295376315,
    "top_product_description": "Coffee: not roasted or decaffeinated",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "",
    "distance_km": 4143.36376953125,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "common_spoken_language_score": 0,
    "has_reported_fta": 0,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 17.209979007563632,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 17.209979007563632,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": 35,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 41879.579677,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 6018,
    "buyer_population_latest": 6958.538,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": -6.881549959886857,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": -7.99269776368906,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 1.2076734963365698,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 10.702,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": -16.1,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer economy and income contracted",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 0,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 0,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "concentrated_product_mix",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets",
      "buyer_macro_weakness"
    ],
    "attention_level": "Stable",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains materially below historical peaks",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 41879.579677,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 6018,
    "buyer_population_2024": 6958.538
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "UGA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBY",
      "export_value_usd": 12511.919525212517,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "UGA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBY",
      "export_value_usd": 17954.973702632473,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 43.502950657984705,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "UGA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBY",
      "export_value_usd": 4496.3374331645,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -74.95770527079486,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "UGA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBY",
      "export_value_usd": 76876.56593611327,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 1609.7597117396042,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 83.15692528492158
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "UGA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBY",
      "export_value_usd": 81.88878964262142,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -99.89348016701126,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -83.4163587996874
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "UGA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBY",
      "export_value_usd": 43531.203223856966,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 53058.928607732014,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 113.13131204987124
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "UGA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBY",
      "export_value_usd": 35678.009065868064,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -18.04037925991675,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -22.577199071093435
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "UGA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBY",
      "export_value_usd": 22496.96258780578,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -36.944456328063836,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 550.0795105632731
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "UGA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBY",
      "export_value_usd": 280168,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 1145.3592297471384,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 86.01128208709228
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "UGA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBY",
      "export_value_usd": 37068.82319176609,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -86.76907313049097,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 1.282884746492452
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "UGA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBY",
      "export_value_usd": 61200.96449732816,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 65.100910219676,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 39.597656234966
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "UGA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBY",
      "export_value_usd": 46222.77168187713,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -24.47378556608357,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -45.1538915652092
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "UGA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBY",
      "export_value_usd": 28213.84553267363,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -38.961155927965216,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -8.697116156852736
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "UGA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBY",
      "export_value_usd": 280940.09571895713,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 895.7525832258798,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 66.19520385066757
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "UGA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBY",
      "export_value_usd": 191164.10295917472,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -31.955564238716306,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 60.51542998183073
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "UGA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBY",
      "export_value_usd": 99135.0962415767,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -48.14136403906954,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 52.02734675499197
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "UGA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBY",
      "export_value_usd": 169117.8064148768,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 70.59327405378535,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -15.564475866598649
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "UGA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBY",
      "export_value_usd": 120317.80376766596,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -28.855626549161563,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -14.30124404171228
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "UGA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBY",
      "export_value_usd": 371717.38650636247,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 208.94628630701226,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 55.35616098706066
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "UGA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBY",
      "export_value_usd": 219695.36743250774,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -40.89720432575263,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 9.113173575932398
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "UGA",
      "importer_iso3": "LBY",
      "hs_code": "090111",
      "hs_description": "Coffee: not roasted or decaffeinated",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 65768856.64587139,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 56.465014641418975,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8594150630967684,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "UGA",
    "importer_iso3": "LBY",
    "distance_km": 4138,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 0,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 0,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 0,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": null,
    "exporter_is_wto": 1,
    "importer_is_wto": 0,
    "exporter_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 41879.579677,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 6018.445207455935,
    "importer_population": 6958.538,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 35,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 24.6,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 40434.701517,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 858.0575491467309,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 17.209979007563632,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 17.209979007563632,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/UGA-LBY/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/UGA-LBY/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/UGA-LBY/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/UGA-LBY/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/UGA-LBY/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}