{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:04.786Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "Türkiye exports to Ukraine: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from Türkiye to Ukraine, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "TUR",
    "country_name": "Türkiye"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "UKR",
    "country_name": "Ukraine"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "TUR",
    "importer_iso3": "UKR",
    "all_history_lane_count": 707,
    "current_lane_count": 665,
    "current_product_count": 665,
    "first_observed_last_year": 2000,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 3260781006.919815,
    "attention_trade_usd": 1429290348.0550954,
    "critical_trade_usd": 0,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 2552841740.6487045,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 348707095.2699252,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 1385381188.438915,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 0,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0,
    "critical_lane_count": 0,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 145,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 492,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 269,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 0,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 247,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 0,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 1.5200491785653607,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 17.177270428020627,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 262.1470534988422,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 13.809791221169702,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 20.42331157858816,
    "top_product_hs6": "271019",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 450307049.23518157,
    "top_product_description": "",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "721049",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
    "distance_km": 1051.2142333984375,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "common_spoken_language_score": 0.008299999870359898,
    "has_reported_fta": 0,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 6.74256830099617,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 6.74256830099617,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": 6.5,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 200085.537744,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 4567,
    "buyer_population_latest": 43814.583,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 4.388047577338883,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 8.285640541163119,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": -3.37794288946095,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 22.714000000000002,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 10.852,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 43.832761078464,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 0,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "high_volatility",
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets"
    ],
    "attention_level": "Watch",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Volatile products account for the largest observed corridor exposure",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 200085.537744,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 4567,
    "buyer_population_2024": 43814.583
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 1995,
      "exporter_iso3": "TUR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 197280323.7788894,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1996,
      "exporter_iso3": "TUR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 209344283.9162565,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 6.115136018779199,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1997,
      "exporter_iso3": "TUR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 279910996.39105296,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 33.708449619300374,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1998,
      "exporter_iso3": "TUR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 223606544.25446296,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -20.11512690195608,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 4.2638072225569035
    },
    {
      "year": 1999,
      "exporter_iso3": "TUR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 190395823.78804442,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -14.852302546487605,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -3.1130159814676706
    },
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "exporter_iso3": "TUR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 218121581.01080418,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 14.562166685769885,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -7.977740587988091
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "TUR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 222452158.41102755,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 1.9853961172273227,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -0.17238286406843217
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "TUR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 272000390.65400034,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 22.27365766953895,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 12.62566540815846
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "TUR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 395076322.52114606,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 45.248439375848235,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 21.89731001876245
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "TUR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 489288466.26459265,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 23.84656795989184,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 30.049728988165825
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "TUR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 728175880.8848517,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 48.82343057133822,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 38.85310230570313
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "TUR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 969618324.8078283,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 33.15716027693543,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 34.887986116111215
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "TUR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 1247859789.757213,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 28.695978389695796,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 36.62607875124317
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "TUR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 2049511078.5528345,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 64.2420963777984,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 41.1902346900171
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "TUR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 968139550.0021855,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -52.762414405400946,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -0.05086287288671443
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "TUR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 1257231259.3362978,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 29.86054121365662,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 0.24971039830434805
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "TUR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 1596103383.1147318,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 26.95384172656725,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -7.99666237277048
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "TUR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 1861615888.7477393,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 16.635044348748295,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 24.35140740341155
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "TUR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 2115919316.285404,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 13.660359748472484,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 18.94914121595599
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "TUR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 1609338282.5637577,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -23.94141543218071,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 0.27563974218702825
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "TUR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 1044059471.519204,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -35.12492166308476,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -17.53334353107646
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "TUR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 1231881253.1786723,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 17.98956733625241,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -16.499338830919175
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "TUR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 1357055298.5962656,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 10.161210351614791,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -5.525036183551046
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "TUR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 1655981926.9813051,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 22.027593768231,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 16.621006432315568
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "TUR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 2205051438.8320136,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 33.15673334983848,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 21.418060966154172
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "TUR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 2224173417.5578117,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 0.8671896895034337,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 17.90268632540204
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "TUR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 2957470565.099172,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 32.969423236185236,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 21.326297943298766
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "TUR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 3150375994.2704406,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 6.52264916674834,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 12.6283931517285
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "TUR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 4152129439.319643,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 31.797901167069643,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 23.131001717186294
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "TUR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 3780199477.115091,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -8.957571473626691,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 8.525408422968583
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "TUR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "hs_code": "271019",
      "hs_description": "",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 5561047625.233143,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 21.392990039680406,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.7517674598885498,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "TUR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "hs_code": "721049",
      "hs_description": "Iron or non-alloy steel: flat-rolled, width 600mm or more, (not corrugated), plated or coated with zinc (not electrolytically)",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 177338324.4585951,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.498401865904302,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "TUR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "hs_code": "080521",
      "hs_description": "Fruit, edible: mandarins (including tangerines and satsumas), fresh or dried",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 90827685.24750638,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 23.55245196419267,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.729133743030444,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "TUR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "hs_code": "070200",
      "hs_description": "Vegetables: tomatoes, fresh or chilled",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 93499604.72087574,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 7.8998053336500185,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0771317663184206,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "TUR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "hs_code": "120600",
      "hs_description": "Oil seeds: sunflower seeds, whether or not broken",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 177796278.93785948,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0158128297482503,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "TUR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "hs_code": "720851",
      "hs_description": "Iron or non-alloy steel: (not in coils), flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, without patterns in relief, of a thickness exceeding 10mm",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 104670647.23643626,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 5.461431637409174,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 2.156499686639863,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "TUR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "hs_code": "720852",
      "hs_description": "Iron or non-alloy steel: (not in coils), flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, without patterns in relief, of a thickness of 4.75mm or more but not exceeding 10mm",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 64513860.29331877,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 2.3519851947229617,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "TUR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "hs_code": "850423",
      "hs_description": "Electrical transformers: liquid dielectric, having a power handling capacity exceeding 10,000kVA",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 106400233.46326812,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.7581028569030346,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "TUR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "hs_code": "151190",
      "hs_description": "Vegetable oils: palm oil and its fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 90975830.68544924,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 4.576599991352569,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 2.4797141561302642,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "TUR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "hs_code": "720839",
      "hs_description": "Iron or non-alloy steel: in coils, without patterns in relief, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, of a thickness of less than 3mm",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 36575263.26779583,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.5843876452442138,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "TUR",
    "importer_iso3": "UKR",
    "distance_km": 1055,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 0,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 1,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 0,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": null,
    "exporter_is_wto": 1,
    "importer_is_wto": 1,
    "exporter_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 200085.537744,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 4566.642520459455,
    "importer_population": 43814.583,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 6.5,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 0.5,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 815271.751724,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 9586.612900959013,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 6.74256830099617,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 6.74256830099617,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/TUR-UKR/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/TUR-UKR/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/TUR-UKR/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/TUR-UKR/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/TUR-UKR/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}