{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:07.088Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "Turkmenistan exports to Iran: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from Turkmenistan to Iran, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "TKM",
    "country_name": "Turkmenistan"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "IRN",
    "country_name": "Iran"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
    "importer_iso3": "IRN",
    "all_history_lane_count": 51,
    "current_lane_count": 10,
    "current_product_count": 10,
    "first_observed_last_year": 1997,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 27836857.498485383,
    "attention_trade_usd": 24191533.84983664,
    "critical_trade_usd": 0,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 17856312.883676454,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 9480368.995741995,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 24376869.378164984,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 0,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0,
    "critical_lane_count": 0,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 6,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 4,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 3,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 0,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 9,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 0,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 1.088440505713749,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 32.38774646949562,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 1983.3340752471943,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 35.34339481835825,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 64.34008782788013,
    "top_product_hs6": "271311",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 9838490.450713452,
    "top_product_description": "Petroleum coke: (not calcined), obtained from bituminous minerals",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "271311",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
    "distance_km": 669.2071533203125,
    "shares_land_border": 1,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "common_spoken_language_score": 0.19440001249313354,
    "has_reported_fta": 0,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 43.96147324099617,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 43.96147324099617,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": 72.5,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 231547.57124000002,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 2757,
    "buyer_population_latest": 85028.763,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 6.431909337919595,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 5.360726244823533,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 1.0166815769729887,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 39.459999999999994,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 40.714000000000006,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 86.90468689273892,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 0,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "high_volatility",
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets"
    ],
    "attention_level": "High attention",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Buyer-market concentration is the largest observed corridor exposure",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 231547.57124000002,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 2757,
    "buyer_population_2024": 85028.763
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 1995,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 8880735.271509357,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1996,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 8204358.194140985,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -7.6162283492255956,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1997,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 64737623.962391354,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 689.063841808159,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1998,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 119077912.20512591,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 83.93926887755872,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 137.5713665189939
    },
    {
      "year": 1999,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 154598345.4719311,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 29.8295734355982,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 166.10522962114317
    },
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 219182794.47181103,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 41.77564048484974,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 50.158493109647836
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 266622704.38621795,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 21.643993557399476,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 30.82436614399249
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 288562748.1106545,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 8.228872996747928,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 23.124687487270656
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 379763996.60399884,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 31.605343756419877,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 20.107218599229725
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 448308995.9850368,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 18.049367500340917,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 18.912298774663185
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 272081842.943898,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -39.309305550277365,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -1.94123216764025
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 93140245.82786286,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -65.76756287001925,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -37.40477614936544
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 119158662.5710086,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 27.93466617130438,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -35.70418257121803
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 83835980.79713878,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -29.643402344181602,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -32.45752620454806
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 54773110.564665414,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -34.66634487499817,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -16.219424012676885
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 50763042.064597175,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -7.321235655101111,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -24.755630633842884
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 80397558.43807782,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 58.378133319453205,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -1.3862508911965499
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 95819308.49187525,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 19.181863670244724,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 20.493016161245436
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 10774298.018912459,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -88.7556086675098,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -40.349542169737184
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 29983452.838829778,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 178.28683396541373,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -28.019820063577527
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 11828804.211327776,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -60.54889250110315,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -50.20765229374027
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 8583676.226435868,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -27.434116981868996,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -7.29678814296002
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 19797124.24935313,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 130.63689411283087,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -12.922325625116905
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 18401011.657994125,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -7.052097939955204,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 15.868918227655925
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 31056141.51882426,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 68.77409838133681,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 53.517559042147965
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 26354406.280624885,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -15.139470031553925,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 10.006169546844657
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 29849482.90059816,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 13.261830233461836,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 17.498332652399085
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 30802788.010957442,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 3.193707286434022,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -0.2726734882986692
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "hs_code": "271311",
      "hs_description": "Petroleum coke: (not calcined), obtained from bituminous minerals",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 14054454.598534346,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.4319987771962381,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "hs_code": "520942",
      "hs_description": "Fabrics, woven: containing 85% or more by weight of cotton, of yarns of different colours, weighing more than 200g/m2, denim",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 19783865.336984903,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 61.10476740783911,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.898978339500092,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "hs_code": "520100",
      "hs_description": "Cotton: not carded or combed",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 217716262.66142046,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 94.50116264618863,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.141187065369553,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "hs_code": "520812",
      "hs_description": "Fabrics, woven: containing 85% or more by weight of cotton, unbleached, plain weave, weighing more than 100g/m2 but not more than 200g/m2",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 10240373.414369613,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 11.855221411827731,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.4564088915034263,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "hs_code": "271312",
      "hs_description": "Petroleum coke: calcined, obtained from bituminous minerals",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 27472010.965894993,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 46.33447774347487,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.3672121704559084,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "hs_code": "310420",
      "hs_description": "Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: potassic, potassium chloride",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 36263633.25938107,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.18754691218525626,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "hs_code": "520512",
      "hs_description": "Cotton yarn: (not sewing thread), single, of uncombed fibres, 85% or more by weight of cotton, less than 714.29 but not less than 232.56 decitex (exceeding 14 but not exceeding 43 metric number), not for retail sale",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 10852525.07278666,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 85.54196765931835,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.2718068633830069,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "hs_code": "520523",
      "hs_description": "Cotton yarn: (not sewing thread), single, of combed fibres, 85% or more by weight of cotton, less than 232.56 but not less than 192.31 decitex (exceeding 43 but not exceeding 52 metric number), not for retail sale",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 70119525.4327296,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.648647569827525,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "hs_code": "540769",
      "hs_description": "Fabrics, woven: containing less than 85% by weight of non-textured polyester filaments",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 152755788.519531,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.07444341196014569,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "limited_history"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "hs_code": "400829",
      "hs_description": "Rubber: vulcanised (other than hard rubber), non-cellular rubber, in forms other than plates, sheets or strip",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 11041553.20906943,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.06847583584808069,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "limited_history"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
    "importer_iso3": "IRN",
    "distance_km": 669,
    "shares_land_border": 1,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 0,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 1,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 0,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": null,
    "exporter_is_wto": 0,
    "importer_is_wto": 0,
    "exporter_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 231547.57124,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 2723.167585538084,
    "importer_population": 85028.763,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 72.5,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 1.1,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 45231.428571000004,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 7393.253337524292,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 43.96147324099617,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 43.96147324099617,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/TKM-IRN/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/TKM-IRN/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/TKM-IRN/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/TKM-IRN/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/TKM-IRN/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}