{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:07.088Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "Turkmenistan exports to India: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from Turkmenistan to India, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "TKM",
    "country_name": "Turkmenistan"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "IND",
    "country_name": "India"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
    "importer_iso3": "IND",
    "all_history_lane_count": 36,
    "current_lane_count": 12,
    "current_product_count": 12,
    "first_observed_last_year": 1995,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 233581620.30040833,
    "attention_trade_usd": 24108171.47266501,
    "critical_trade_usd": 0,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 31442873.600621898,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 212701.39136182846,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 24600220.41169318,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 0,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0,
    "critical_lane_count": 0,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 2,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 2,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 1,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 0,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 6,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 0,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 0.7821202894916564,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 0.10936935547418099,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 7426.620663952575,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 85.53700235964669,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 98.99819573615608,
    "top_product_hs6": "310420",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 199798716.06806123,
    "top_product_description": "Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: potassic, potassium chloride",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "280120",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
    "distance_km": 2031.1697998046875,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "common_spoken_language_score": 0,
    "has_reported_fta": 0,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 26.22572753563219,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 26.22572753563219,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": 17.5,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 3173397.590817,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 2277,
    "buyer_population_latest": 1393409.058,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 6.63597808578098,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 5.710094876388561,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 0.8758701905197341,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 35.896,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 30.939999999999998,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 10.321090949561695,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 0,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "high_volatility",
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "concentrated_product_mix",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets"
    ],
    "attention_level": "Watch",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Volatile products account for the largest observed corridor exposure",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 3173397.590817,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 2277,
    "buyer_population_2024": 1393409.058
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 1995,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IND",
      "export_value_usd": 2428051.7718284847,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1996,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IND",
      "export_value_usd": 186507.8804856106,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -92.31862011141723,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1997,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IND",
      "export_value_usd": 548126.8936446389,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 193.8894014652254,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1998,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IND",
      "export_value_usd": 292911.78381558997,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -46.561318699773516,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -50.58869771366867
    },
    {
      "year": 1999,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IND",
      "export_value_usd": 976294.7473708712,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 233.30675012567005,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 73.63126207297145
    },
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IND",
      "export_value_usd": 1113662.245298091,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 14.070289561338512,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 26.655521820289742
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IND",
      "export_value_usd": 1563703.149658044,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 40.41089713331279,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 74.77225473135265
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IND",
      "export_value_usd": 3706582.3800156126,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 137.03874874372292,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 56.002264086571564
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IND",
      "export_value_usd": 6729527.976283195,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 81.55614219087855,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 82.14211228317427
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IND",
      "export_value_usd": 8041351.149818998,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 19.49353919263055,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 72.60693419748041
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IND",
      "export_value_usd": 9932447.56178509,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 23.517147513308867,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 38.897429319392394
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IND",
      "export_value_usd": 11628766.876363857,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 17.078563002993576,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 20.000490282461424
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IND",
      "export_value_usd": 7378382.874686427,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -36.550599447621416,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -2.827348459831047
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IND",
      "export_value_usd": 11277636.15921461,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 52.84699033314799,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 4.324729209246403
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IND",
      "export_value_usd": 6637529.866274607,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -41.144316303809056,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -17.048494087746946
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IND",
      "export_value_usd": 11520186.088975038,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 73.56134467295257,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 16.011070849407538
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IND",
      "export_value_usd": 12550328.906482352,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 8.942067511332773,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 3.6284516944711243
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IND",
      "export_value_usd": 7543909.026477191,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -39.89074642832111,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 4.359018226632139
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IND",
      "export_value_usd": 11830262.62558845,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 56.81873394903432,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 0.8892663211162333
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IND",
      "export_value_usd": 13983404.584662179,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 18.200288761270244,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 3.6698822556811894
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IND",
      "export_value_usd": 44436407.4058464,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 217.7796017901597,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 80.59851119179349
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IND",
      "export_value_usd": 19823835.59621498,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -55.388302625007434,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 18.77665774313746
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IND",
      "export_value_usd": 13457021.71207793,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -32.11696269995642,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -1.2708624483727338
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IND",
      "export_value_usd": 28996998.040684953,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 115.47857067555745,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -13.262939525954442
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IND",
      "export_value_usd": 3282704.745220944,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -88.6791565781566,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -45.08621506163222
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IND",
      "export_value_usd": 618520.7281937847,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -81.15819800442775,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -64.17921477152389
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IND",
      "export_value_usd": 3485764.1745955725,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 463.5646496075828,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -50.64683743451022
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IND",
      "export_value_usd": 79359845.17653567,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 2176.684285038967,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 189.1498666242445
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IND",
      "export_value_usd": 188712056.5531471,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 137.792873881442,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 573.2067518058283
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IND",
      "export_value_usd": 234839998.9940695,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 24.44355876537827,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 306.9034348375805
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IND",
      "hs_code": "310420",
      "hs_description": "Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: potassic, potassium chloride",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 1024389614.4796566,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6465583875998923,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The lane has limited historical coverage",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "limited_history"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IND",
      "hs_code": "280120",
      "hs_description": "Iodine",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 292177981.59919465,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.1600391726292558,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IND",
      "hs_code": "271019",
      "hs_description": "",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 5966061771.568723,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 3.013197324555838,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IND",
      "hs_code": "130190",
      "hs_description": "Natural gums, resins, gum-resins and oleoresins, n.e.c. in heading no. 1301",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 180190520.9599924,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8106073620606902,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "limited_history"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IND",
      "hs_code": "510129",
      "hs_description": "Wool: (not carded or combed), degreased, (not carbonised), (other than shorn)",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 46994437.241138875,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 29.271122437880535,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6626312368699986,
      "attention_level": "Stable",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": []
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IND",
      "hs_code": "251990",
      "hs_description": "Magnesia, fused or dead-burned (sintered): whether or not containing small quantities of other oxides added before sintering, other magnesium oxide, whether or not pure, (not natural magnesium carbonate)",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 164305092.3012181,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 84.01654886847685,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8559639687135461,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "limited_history"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IND",
      "hs_code": "852692",
      "hs_description": "Radio remote control apparatus",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 27832483.182546433,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The lane has limited historical coverage",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "limited_history"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IND",
      "hs_code": "852610",
      "hs_description": "Radar apparatus",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 149075117.96056437,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "limited_history"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IND",
      "hs_code": "843820",
      "hs_description": "Machinery: industrial, for the manufacture of confectionery, cocoa or chocolate",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 68633395.7178112,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The lane has limited historical coverage",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "limited_history"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
      "importer_iso3": "IND",
      "hs_code": "902300",
      "hs_description": "Instruments, apparatus and models: designed for demonstrational purposes (in education or exhibitions), unsuitable for other uses",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 64527090.364618585,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The lane has limited historical coverage",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "limited_history"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "TKM",
    "importer_iso3": "IND",
    "distance_km": 2028,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 0,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 0,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 0,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": null,
    "exporter_is_wto": 0,
    "importer_is_wto": 1,
    "exporter_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 3173397.5908170003,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 2277.434305882774,
    "importer_population": 1393409.058,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 17.5,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 7.2,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 45231.428571000004,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 7393.253337524292,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 26.22572753563219,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 26.22572753563219,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/TKM-IND/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/TKM-IND/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/TKM-IND/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/TKM-IND/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/TKM-IND/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}